2016 Norcal 3- Gold Fleet

HostEncinal Yacht Club
Date11/05/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Kirby School	Griffins	26	26
2	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	33	33
3	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils 2	36	36
4	Alameda High School	Hornets 1	44	44
5	Los Altos High	Eagles	44	44
6	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	63	63
7	Miramonte High School	Matadors 1	70	70
8	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	72	72
9	Redwood High School	Giants	72	72
10	Sequoia High School	Cherokees	74	74
11	Marin Academy	Wildcats 1	77	77
12	Miramonte High School	Matadors 2	82	82
13	Branson School	Bulls	85	85
14	Carlmont	The Scots	89	89
15	Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	95	95
16	Encinal High School	Jets	96	96
17	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	96	96
18	Design Tech High School	d.tech	99	99
19	Soquel High School	Knights	100	100
20	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils 1	101	101
21	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	105	105
22	Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	109	109
23	Alameda High School	Hornets 2	111	111
24	Athenian	Owls	129	129
25	Marin Academy	Wildcats 2	129	129
26	Los Gatos High School	Varsity	135	135
27	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	141	141
28	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	153	153
29	Aptos High School	Mariners	154	154

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Kirby School	Griffins	1	3	5	5	2	10	26	Josselyn Verutti '17 [1-2, 5] Olivia Beers '17 [3-4, 6] Zoey Carmichael '19 [1-5] Josselyn Verutti '17 [6]
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	10	12	1	7	1	2	33	Stuart Henry '17 Susanna Yan '18
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils 2	11	1	2	6	12	4	36	Jeremy Gillespie '17 [1-6] Kate Elkort '18 [1, 3, 5-6] Kai Hill '17 [2, 4]
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	2	10	3	4	6	19	44	Caila Devlin '17 [1-6] Casey Tolen '17 [1-2, 5-6] Sean Tolen '21 [3-4]
Los Altos High	Eagles	3	5	6	10	4	16	44	Albert Zhao '19 Amir Tadros '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	8	7	12	13	10	13	63	Cali Salinas '19 Sumner Strumph '17
Miramonte High School	Matadors 1	7	8	24	25	5	1	70	Will Foox '20 Ian Churchill '19
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	4	18	14	14	16	6	72	Keelin Davis '17 [1-6] Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [1, 3, 5-6] Elena Adams '20 [2, 4]
Redwood High School	Giants	DNF	6	17	1	7	11	72	Sarah Young '20 Madeline Wolfson '19
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	DNS	2	9	8	11	14	74	Christian Brown '18 [1-6] Oliver Lahham '18 [1-3, 6] Gavin Bradley '18 [4-5]
Marin Academy	Wildcats 1	DNF	16	10	11	3	7	77	Parker Kulavic '18 [1-6] Jack Whitescarver '19 [1-3, 6] Jack Lamarre '17 [4-5]
Miramonte High School	Matadors 2	5	9	21	3	19	25	82	Daniel Erisman '19 Devon Kurisu '19
Branson School	Bulls	13	25	7	23	8	9	85	Isabel Rewick '19 Cedric Oltramare '19
Carlmont	The Scots	14	24	8	9	14	20	89	Robert Ziman '21 Nina Heller '19
Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	16	4	16	17	18	24	95	Ryter Ullrich '18 Kaitlyn Zarembinski '17
Encinal High School	Jets	12	13	28	29	9	5	96	Carl Fhyr '21 [1-2, 5-6] Max Vandenberg '17 [3-4] Lily Imani '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jordan Imani '21 [3-4]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	21	11	18	12	17	17	96	Sarah Cuyler '19 Reid Wishner '19
Design Tech High School	d.tech	9	15	22	20	15	18	99	Jack Lugliani '18 [1-6] Madelyn Blessinger '19 [1-2, 5-6] Ethan Shedd '20 [3-4]
Soquel High School	Knights	15	19	15	18	21	12	100	Jackson Halderman '17 Max Peer '18
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils 1	6	22	4	21	22	26	101	Micherice Tao '19 Brian Kirz '18
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	24	21	26	2	24	8	105	Wiley Yu '18 [1-2, 5] Justin Lim '19 [3-4, 6] Joe Moore '21 [1-2, 5]
Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	17	17	20	19	13	23	109	Kristen Zarembinski '19 [1-5] Niko Vo '18 [6] Derek Nelson '18 [1-5]
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	25	14	25	24	20	3	111	Jonathon Andrews '20 [1-6] Liam Orozco '19 [1-5] Olivia Allanson '16 [6]
Athenian	Owls	18	27	13	15	27	29	129	Madeleine Kardek '17 [1-5] Jackson Kaplan '17 [6] Jackson Kaplan '17 [1-2] Noah Cheyer '19 [3-4] Julie Qian '20 [5] Xi Cong '19 [6]
Marin Academy	Wildcats 2	23	20	11	26	28	21	129	Elise Lamarre '19 [1-3, 6] Jack Whitescarver '19 [4-5] Jack Lamarre '17 [1-3, 6]
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	22	23	23	16	23	28	135	Nick David '22 Dante Massaro '22
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	19	26	27	28	26	15	141	Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [1-6] Ethan Waite '18 [1-2, 5-6] Liam Guild '21 [3-4]
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	26	DNF	19	27	29	22	153	Vic Sahni '17 Coco Huang '18
Aptos High School	Mariners	20	DNF	DNF	22	25	27	154	Dana Foley '18 Sam Bach '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Alameda High School Hornets 1	58	58	58	58	58	58
Alameda High School Hornets 2	57	57	57	57	57	57
Aptos High School Mariners	101	101	101	101	101	101
Campolindo High School Cougars 1	55	55	55	55	55	55
Campolindo High School Cougars 2	54	54	54	54	54	54
Carlmont The Scots	24	24	24	24	24	24
Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins	33	33	33	33	33	33
Design Tech High School d.tech	32	32	32	32	32	32
Encinal High School Jets	53	53	53	53	53	53
International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars	7	7	7	7	7	7
Kirby School Griffins	106	106	106	106	106	106
Los Altos High Eagles	31	31	31	31	31	31
Los Gatos High School Varsity	27	27	27	27	27	27
Marin Academy Wildcats 1	16	16	16	16	16	16
Marin Academy Wildcats 2	124	124	124	124	124	124
Miramonte High School Matadors 1	51	51	51	51	51	51
Miramonte High School Matadors 2	52	52	52	52	52	52
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	50	50	50	50	50	50
Redwood High School Giants	8	8	8	8	8	8
Sequoia High School Cherokees	30	30	30	30	30	30
San Francisco University High School Red Devils 1	2	2	2	2	2	2
San Francisco University High School Red Devils 2	1	1	1	1	1	1
Soquel High School Knights	104	104	104	104	104	104
Stevenson School Pirates 1	97	97	97	97	97	97
Stevenson School Pirates 2	99	99	99	99	99	99
Athenian Owls	56	56	56	56	56	56
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	83	83	83	83	83	83
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	82	82	82	82	82	82
Branson School Bulls	123	123	123	123	123	123

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	Caila Devlin '17 [1-6]	Casey Tolen '17 [1-2, 5-6] Sean Tolen '21 [3-4]
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	Jonathon Andrews '20 [1-6]	Liam Orozco '19 [1-5] Olivia Allanson '16 [6]
Aptos High School	Mariners	Dana Foley '18	Sam Bach '19
Athenian	Owls	Madeleine Kardek '17 [1-5] Jackson Kaplan '17 [6]	Jackson Kaplan '17 [1-2] Noah Cheyer '19 [3-4] Julie Qian '20 [5] Xi Cong '19 [6]
Branson School	Bulls	Isabel Rewick '19	Cedric Oltramare '19
Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	Kristen Zarembinski '19 [1-5] Niko Vo '18 [6]	Derek Nelson '18 [1-5]
Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	Ryter Ullrich '18	Kaitlyn Zarembinski '17
Carlmont	The Scots	Robert Ziman '21	Nina Heller '19
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	Wiley Yu '18 [1-2, 5] Justin Lim '19 [3-4, 6]	Joe Moore '21 [1-2, 5]
Design Tech High School	d.tech	Jack Lugliani '18 [1-6]	Madelyn Blessinger '19 [1-2, 5-6] Ethan Shedd '20 [3-4]
Encinal High School	Jets	Carl Fhyr '21 [1-2, 5-6] Max Vandenberg '17 [3-4]	Lily Imani '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jordan Imani '21 [3-4]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	Keelin Davis '17 [1-6]	Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [1, 3, 5-6] Elena Adams '20 [2, 4]
Kirby School	Griffins	Josselyn Verutti '17 [1-2, 5] Olivia Beers '17 [3-4, 6]	Zoey Carmichael '19 [1-5] Josselyn Verutti '17 [6]
Los Altos High	Eagles	Albert Zhao '19	Amir Tadros '19
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	Nick David '22	Dante Massaro '22
Marin Academy	Wildcats 1	Parker Kulavic '18 [1-6]	Jack Whitescarver '19 [1-3, 6] Jack Lamarre '17 [4-5]
Marin Academy	Wildcats 2	Elise Lamarre '19 [1-3, 6] Jack Whitescarver '19 [4-5]	Jack Lamarre '17 [1-3, 6]
Miramonte High School	Matadors 1	Will Foox '20	Ian Churchill '19
Miramonte High School	Matadors 2	Daniel Erisman '19	Devon Kurisu '19
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [1-6]	Ethan Waite '18 [1-2, 5-6] Liam Guild '21 [3-4]
Redwood High School	Giants	Sarah Young '20	Madeline Wolfson '19
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils 1	Micherice Tao '19	Brian Kirz '18
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils 2	Jeremy Gillespie '17 [1-6]	Kate Elkort '18 [1, 3, 5-6] Kai Hill '17 [2, 4]
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	Christian Brown '18 [1-6]	Oliver Lahham '18 [1-3, 6] Gavin Bradley '18 [4-5]
Soquel High School	Knights	Jackson Halderman '17	Max Peer '18
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	Stuart Henry '17	Susanna Yan '18
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	Vic Sahni '17	Coco Huang '18
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	Cali Salinas '19	Sumner Strumph '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Sarah Cuyler '19	Reid Wishner '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2016 Norcal 3- Gold Fleet

Division A

From the notes