2016 Norcal 3 - Silver Fleet

HostEncinal Yacht Club
Date11/05/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	20	20
2	Amador Valley	Dons	22	22
3	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	36	36
4	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 2	46	46
5	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	50	50
6	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	54	54
7	Woodside High School	Wildcat	57	57
8	Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	59	59
9	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	62	62
10	The Urban School	Blues 2	63	63
11	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	74	74
12	Head Royce	Jayhawks	84	84
13	Harbor High School	Pirates	84	84
14	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	85	85
15	Saratoga High School	Falcons	87	87
16	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	97	97
17	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	97	97
18	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 1	103	103
19	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	104	104
20	Athenian	Owls	112	112
21	Redwood High School	Giants	112	112
22	The Urban School	Blues 1	119	119
23	Santa Cruz High School	Cardinal	121	121
24	Benicia High School	Storm	122	122
25	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	129	129
26	Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	138	138
27	Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	149	149
28	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	161	161

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	3	3	1	4	5	4	20	Andrew Zheng '19 Michael Zheng '19
Amador Valley	Dons	7	6	3	3	2	1	22	Christopher Hopkins '21 Sophia Browne '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	4	10	7	1	4	10	36	Sean Engelbrechtin '18 Savanna Defjen-Creson '19
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 2	10	12	14	2	1	7	46	William Bayliss '20 Paul Ikeda '20
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	11	2	5	16	14	2	50	Lucien Canvinet '20 [1-6] Rosie Ward '19 [1-2, 5-6] Natalie Leger '17 [3-4]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	20	5	6	6	11	6	54	Jade Greer '19 Genna Corlett '17
Woodside High School	Wildcat	14	4	11	15	10	3	57	Jessica O'Neill '19 Marianna Lubarsky '19
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	16	8	4	9	3	19	59	Lulu Desai '18 [1-6] Olivia Mohun '19 [1, 3, 5] Theo Ennis '19 [2, 4, 6]
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	1	22	2	23	9	5	62	Keilah Stypulkoski '19 Miriam Rogers '19
The Urban School	Blues 2	5	11	10	7	6	24	63	Eli Gordon '20 Dillan Srivastava '20
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	12	9	9	24	12	8	74	Max Rodman '18 Stuart Myers '17
Head Royce	Jayhawks	8	7	13	26	15	15	84	Madeleine Henry '18 [1-6] Julia Katter '18 [1-2, 5-6] Pierce Yeary '19 [3-4]
Harbor High School	Pirates	15	21	12	8	16	12	84	Chloe Long '19 Kelsey Hill '19
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	2	1	17	17	23	25	85	Nameer Hirschkind '19 James Scherr '20
Saratoga High School	Falcons	18	16	8	14	22	9	87	Lilah Foster '17 Andie Pilsbury '19
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	9	15	18	12	21	22	97	Tim Gee '20 Erez Harel '20
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	13	18	24	11	8	23	97	Fredrick Baldauf '20 Jonah Benningfield '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 1	19	14	16	18	20	16	103	Gabriella Schmidt '18 Anastasia Dorn '20
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	DNF	17	20	10	7	21	104	Jemma Schroder '20 Jasper Bull '20
Athenian	Owls	22	26	15	13	25	11	112	Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-3] Diego Rodriguez '19 [4-6] Sarah Zemelman '20 [1-4] Solimar Guzman '20 [5] Julieanna Fajardo '20 [6]
Redwood High School	Giants	DNF	20	22	5	18	18	112	Jake Lopez '19 Mia Morgan '19
The Urban School	Blues 1	23	13	23	19	24	17	119	Hannah Schrank '19 Anna Krylova '20
Santa Cruz High School	Cardinal	21	19	27	21	13	20	121	Charlie Atkinson '18 Benjamin Hersey '19
Benicia High School	Storm	6	DSQ	19	25	17	26	122	Julian Sarkany '16 Jamie Sarkany '16
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	25	DSQ	21	22	19	13	129	Alex Meislich '19 Joshua Holzer '19
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	26	23	28	20	27	14	138	Luc Burkhart '20 [1-6] Isabel Witchel '20 [1-4] Will Burkhart '20 [5-6]
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	17	24	26	27	26	OCS	149	Noah Sanders '18 Elise Nicol '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	24	25	25	DNF	DNF	DNF	161	Tristan Brousseau '19 Moselle Fredericks '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.230+0.23

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Amador Valley Dons	45	45	45	45	45	45
Benicia High School Storm	61	61	61	61	61	61
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2	63	63	63	63	63	63
Convent and Stuart Hall Cubs	8	8	8	8	8	8
Design Tech High School d.tech 1	25	25	25	25	25	25
Design Tech High School d.tech 2	29	29	29	29	29	29
Harbor High School Pirates	109	109	109	109	109	109
Head Royce Jayhawks	46	46	46	46	46	46
International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars	6	6	6	6	6	6
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lynbrook High School Vikings	28	28	28	28	28	28
Marin Catholic Wildcats	135	135	135	135	135	135
Redwood High School Giants	122	122	122	122	122	122
Santa Cruz High School Cardinal	103	103	103	103	103	103
Saratoga High School Falcons	105	105	105	105	105	105
Sir Francis Drake Pirates 1	96	96	96	96	96	96
Sir Francis Drake Pirates 2	60	60	60	60	60	60
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Wildcats 1	4	4	4	4	4	4
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Wildcats 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	133	133	133	133	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	134	134	134	134	134	134
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3	140	140	140	140	140	140
Athenian Owls	48	48	48	48	48	48
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	81	81	81	81	81	81
The Urban School Blues 1	141	141	141	141	141	141
The Urban School Blues 2	10	10	10	10	10	10
Woodside High School Wildcat	26	26	26	26	26	26

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Amador Valley	Dons	Christopher Hopkins '21	Sophia Browne '20
Athenian	Owls	Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-3] Diego Rodriguez '19 [4-6]	Sarah Zemelman '20 [1-4] Solimar Guzman '20 [5] Julieanna Fajardo '20 [6]
Benicia High School	Storm	Julian Sarkany '16	Jamie Sarkany '16
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	Max Rodman '18	Stuart Myers '17
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	Lucien Canvinet '20 [1-6]	Rosie Ward '19 [1-2, 5-6] Natalie Leger '17 [3-4]
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	Lulu Desai '18 [1-6]	Olivia Mohun '19 [1, 3, 5] Theo Ennis '19 [2, 4, 6]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	Tim Gee '20	Erez Harel '20
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	Jemma Schroder '20	Jasper Bull '20
Harbor High School	Pirates	Chloe Long '19	Kelsey Hill '19
Head Royce	Jayhawks	Madeleine Henry '18 [1-6]	Julia Katter '18 [1-2, 5-6] Pierce Yeary '19 [3-4]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	Jade Greer '19	Genna Corlett '17
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Nameer Hirschkind '19	James Scherr '20
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	Andrew Zheng '19	Michael Zheng '19
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	Keilah Stypulkoski '19	Miriam Rogers '19
Redwood High School	Giants	Jake Lopez '19	Mia Morgan '19
Santa Cruz High School	Cardinal	Charlie Atkinson '18	Benjamin Hersey '19
Saratoga High School	Falcons	Lilah Foster '17	Andie Pilsbury '19
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	Noah Sanders '18	Elise Nicol '18
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	Luc Burkhart '20 [1-6]	Isabel Witchel '20 [1-4] Will Burkhart '20 [5-6]
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 1	Gabriella Schmidt '18	Anastasia Dorn '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 2	William Bayliss '20	Paul Ikeda '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Tristan Brousseau '19	Moselle Fredericks '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Alex Meislich '19	Joshua Holzer '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	Sean Engelbrechtin '18	Savanna Defjen-Creson '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Fredrick Baldauf '20	Jonah Benningfield '20
The Urban School	Blues 1	Hannah Schrank '19	Anna Krylova '20
The Urban School	Blues 2	Eli Gordon '20	Dillan Srivastava '20
Woodside High School	Wildcat	Jessica O'Neill '19	Marianna Lubarsky '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2016 Norcal 3 - Silver Fleet

Division A

From the notes