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SAISA Singlehanded Championship Radial Fleet

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 57
2 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 63
3 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 69
4 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 80
5 Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 88
6 Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 89
7 Westminster Academy Westminster Academy Luke Welker '17 111
8 Wando Wando Lucas Sawin '20 121
9 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Scott Harris '18 122
10 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Matthew King '20 134
11 Savannah Country Day School Savannah Country Day School Collin Porter '19 139
12 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Walter Gnann '17 144
13 Fort Myers High School Fort Myers High School Sydney Monahan '19 146
14 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Brandon Geller '19 148
15 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Tucker Weed '18 159
16 Design & Architecture Senior High Design & Architecture Senior High Colin Dorsey '19 160
17 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 163
18 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 177
19 William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Denver Rozzo '19 182
20 Robinson High School Robinson High School Katie Nelson '20 184
21 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Chris Hoogenboom '18 195
22 Benedictine Military School Benedictine Military School Will Gladden '19 208
23 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Ian Hoogenboom '20 214
24 Robinson High School Robinson High School Jonathan Joyner '19 225
25 Wando Wando Sydney Register '18 240
26 Hillsborough High School Hillsborough High School Nicole Shaffer '18 248
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 2 1 3 6 2 5 6 1 22 1 8 57
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 6 5 1 2 5 1 2 DSQ 2 2 10 63
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 1 3 5 15 1 4 1 8 5 12 14 69
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 8 2 7 21 4 2 24 4 1 6 1 80
Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 14 8 8 16 3 3 10 2 3 15 6 88
Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 3 4 2 5 17 8 9 7 10 9 15 89
Westminster Academy Westminster Academy Luke Welker '17 5 6 18 3 6 17 13 14 17 3 9 111
Wando Wando Lucas Sawin '20 9 11 14 18 9 13 15 5 4 20 3 121
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Scott Harris '18 20 9 11 1 19 21 8 16 7 5 5 122
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Matthew King '20 15 10 13 7 12 14 7 9 11 14 22 134
Savannah Country Day School Savannah Country Day School Collin Porter '19 19 14 10 9 7 18 11 12 16 21 2 139
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Walter Gnann '17 7 19 4 12 23 19 16 10 6 4 24 144
Fort Myers High School Fort Myers High School Sydney Monahan '19 12 15 6 13 22 25 12 18 12 7 4 146
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Brandon Geller '19 13 16 9 20 8 16 17 11 21 10 7 148
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Tucker Weed '18 17 7 16 14 14 7 OCS 23 15 8 11 159
Design & Architecture Senior High Design & Architecture Senior High Colin Dorsey '19 26 20 19 17 10 10 14 3 9 16 16 160
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Elizabeth Shanahan '19 11 21 12 10 13 23 3 20 20 18 12 163
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 4 12 15 4 20 22 21 24 8 22 25 177
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Denver Rozzo '19 16 24 17 23 15 6 5 6 26 25 19 182
Robinson High School Robinson High School Katie Nelson '20 10 26 20 26 11 11 4 21 25 13 17 184
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Chris Hoogenboom '18 24 17 23 19 21 9 20 13 18 11 20 195
Benedictine Military School Benedictine Military School Will Gladden '19 22 23 24 8 18 24 22 17 13 19 18 208
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Ian Hoogenboom '20 21 22 DSQ 11 25 26 19 19 14 17 13 214
Robinson High School Robinson High School Jonathan Joyner '19 18 25 21 22 16 15 18 22 24 23 21 225
Wando Wando Sydney Register '18 23 18 22 25 24 20 OCS 15 19 24 23 240
Hillsborough High School Hillsborough High School Nicole Shaffer '18 25 13 25 24 26 12 23 25 23 26 26 248

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  26 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Sophia Reineke '17St. Thomas Aquinas High School11/113.323.45+0.1499th → 99th0.115%5.2 / 7.9
2Kyle Dochoda '17Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 211/112.404.59+2.1991st → 99th11.76%5.7 / 11.2
3Chase Carraway '18Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 111/113.163.41+0.2599th → 99th0.322%6.3 / 8.3
4Connor Nelson '19H. B. Plant High School Panthers 211/112.802.42−0.3896th → 91st0.522%7.3 / 9.6
5Hallie Schiffman '18Pine View School11/112.833.02+0.1996th → 98th0.132%8.0 / 9.5
6Lillian Myers '19Riverview High School11/112.293.00+0.7188th → 98th1.913%8.1 / 11.6
7Luke Welker '17Westminster Academy11/112.422.49+0.0791st → 92nd0.039%10.1 / 11.1
8Lucas Sawin '20Wando Wando Warriors 211/112.512.37−0.1492nd → 89th0.156%11.0 / 10.7
9Scott Harris '18John T. Hoggard High School11/111.802.19+0.3980th → 86th0.629%11.1 / 13.3
10Matthew King '20Sarasota High School11/111.062.27+1.2159th → 88th5.210%12.2 / 16.2
11Collin Porter '19Savannah Country Day School11/112.292.07−0.2288th → 84th0.264%12.6 / 11.6
12Walter Gnann '17Beaufort High School Varsity 211/111.991.69−0.3083rd → 77th0.456%13.1 / 12.7
13Sydney Monahan '19Fort Myers High School11/110.811.77+0.9651st → 79th3.216%13.3 / 17.0
14Brandon Geller '19H. B. Plant High School Panthers 111/111.782.07+0.2980th → 84th0.452%13.5 / 13.4
15Tucker Weed '18Ransom Everglades School11/112.521.90−0.6192nd → 82nd1.784%14.5 / 10.8
16Colin Dorsey '19Design & Architecture Senior High11/111.25u1.49+0.2466th → 73rd0.241%14.5 / 15.4
17Elizabeth Shanahan '19Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 111/111.751.64−0.1279th → 76th0.166%14.8 / 13.5
18Benjamin Smith '22Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 211/111.951.13−0.8182nd → 62nd3.486%16.1 / 12.8
19Denver Rozzo '19William T. Dwyer High School11/111.16u0.89−0.2763rd → 54th0.356%16.5 / 15.8
20Katie Nelson '20Robinson High School Knighst 111/110.710.73+0.0246th → 47th0.041%16.7 / 17.4
21Chris Hoogenboom '18Beaufort High School Varsity 111/111.471.17−0.3172nd → 64th0.480%17.7 / 14.5
22Will Gladden '19Benedictine Military School11/110.380.96+0.5833rd → 57th1.354%18.9 / 18.4
23Ian Hoogenboom '20Beaufort High School Varsity 311/110.640.82+0.1744th → 51st0.169%19.5 / 17.5
24Jonathan Joyner '19Robinson High School Knighst 211/110.680.84+0.1545th → 51st0.178%20.5 / 17.6
25Sydney Register '18Wando Wando Warriors 111/110.890.65−0.2453rd → 44th0.292%21.8 / 16.9
26Nicole Shaffer '18Hillsborough High School11/111.03u-0.56−1.5959th → 10th9.397%22.5 / 16.3

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →