SCC Fleet Race - JV

HostGreat Mills/Leonardtown High
Date10/08/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Zags	Zags	18	35	53
2	Varsity	Varsity	33	36	69
3	Leonardtown High School	Varsity	42	31	73
4	Admirals	Admirals	30	48	78
5	Battlin' Baron	Battlin' Baron	34	48	82
6	Annapolis High School	Panthers	39	49	88
7	Bruins	Bruins	49	41	90
8	Great Mills High School	Varsity	65	26	91
9	Varsity	Varsity	60	43	103
10	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	54	56	110
11	Severna Park	Falcons	67	47	114
12	St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	62	56	118
13	Eagles	Eagles	54	71	125
14	Pirates	Pirates	59	81	140
15	Cavaliers	Cavaliers	68	77	145
16	Seahawks	Seahawks	88	77	165

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Zags	Zags	2	9	1	2	2	2	18
Admirals	Admirals	1	DNS	2	1	8	1	30
Varsity	Varsity	10	2	3	3	9	6	33
Battlin' Baron	Battlin' Baron	6	8	4	9	3	4	34
Annapolis High School	Panthers	3	1	6	5	DNF	7	39	Thomas Johnson '20 Jack Burkhardt '20
Leonardtown High School	Varsity	7	5	DNF	6	4	3	42	Daniel Unangst '20 [1-4] Brandon Henderson '17 [5-6] Brandon Henderson '17 [1-4] Daniel Unangst '20 [5-6]
Bruins	Bruins	15	6	5	8	5	10	49
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	4	4	8	DSQ	6	15	54	Andrea Riefkohl '20 Kate Rice '16
Eagles	Eagles	9	3	12	12	13	5	54
Pirates	Pirates	12	11	14	13	1	8	59
Varsity	Varsity	14	14	7	4	7	14	60
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	5	13	10	11	12	11	62	Maccallum Borghardt '20 [1-2, 5-6] Colette St. Laurent '20 [3-4] Christopher Callaghan '20 [1-2, 5-6] Riley Foster '20 [3-4]
Great Mills High School	Varsity	8	10	DNF	10	11	9	65	Olivia Sowa '20 Astri Carlsen '17
Severna Park	Falcons	11	7	13	14	10	12	67	Taylor Shea '19 Mallory Lentz '20
Cavaliers	Cavaliers	13	12	9	7	14	13	68
Seahawks	Seahawks	16	15	11	15	15	16	88

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Great Mills High School	Varsity	2	3	4	2	11	4	26	Lucy Paskoff '20 [1-4] Mark Morris '18 [5-6] Lochlann Ludwig '21 [1-4]
Leonardtown High School	Varsity	4	4	1	1	8	13	31	Tyler Egeli '20 [1-4] Desiree Evans '20 [5-6] Addison Musick '20 [1-4]
Zags	Zags	5	6	7	3	6	8	35
Varsity	Varsity	7	2	3	13	10	1	36
Bruins	Bruins	8	8	DNS	5	1	2	41
Varsity	Varsity	3	1	9	4	9	DNS	43
Severna Park	Falcons	13	5	2	12	3	12	47	Caleb Robinson '19 Brian Tinkler '20
Admirals	Admirals	1	16	10	9	5	7	48
Battlin' Baron	Battlin' Baron	6	9	5	10	13	5	48
Annapolis High School	Panthers	9	7	8	6	2	DNS	49	Chris Adkins '20 [1-4] Porter Kavle '18 [5-6] Jenny Crutchley '20 [1-2, 5-6] Porter Kavle '18 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	10	14	14	11	4	3	56	Will Stone '14 Stella Reshetiloff '21
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	11	11	6	7	15	6	56	James Farrell '20 [1-2, 5-6] Claire Neace '20 [3-4] Gabriel Smith '19 [1-2, 5-6] Christian Alianti '20 [3-4]
Eagles	Eagles	14	13	11	8	16	9	71
Cavaliers	Cavaliers	12	10	DNS	16	12	10	77
Seahawks	Seahawks	16	15	13	15	7	11	77
Pirates	Pirates	15	12	12	14	14	14	81

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Annapolis High School	Thomas Johnson '20	Jack Burkhardt '20
Panthers	Chris Adkins '20 [1-4] Porter Kavle '18 [5-6]	Jenny Crutchley '20 [1-2, 5-6] Porter Kavle '18 [3-4]
Great Mills High School	Olivia Sowa '20	Astri Carlsen '17
Varsity	Lucy Paskoff '20 [1-4] Mark Morris '18 [5-6]	Lochlann Ludwig '21 [1-4]
Leonardtown High School	Daniel Unangst '20 [1-4] Brandon Henderson '17 [5-6]	Brandon Henderson '17 [1-4] Daniel Unangst '20 [5-6]
Varsity	Tyler Egeli '20 [1-4] Desiree Evans '20 [5-6]	Addison Musick '20 [1-4]
Severna Park	Taylor Shea '19	Mallory Lentz '20
Falcons	Caleb Robinson '19	Brian Tinkler '20
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Andrea Riefkohl '20	Kate Rice '16
Saints	Will Stone '14	Stella Reshetiloff '21
St. Mary's Ryken	Maccallum Borghardt '20 [1-2, 5-6] Colette St. Laurent '20 [3-4]	Christopher Callaghan '20 [1-2, 5-6] Riley Foster '20 [3-4]
Knights	James Farrell '20 [1-2, 5-6] Claire Neace '20 [3-4]	Gabriel Smith '19 [1-2, 5-6] Christian Alianti '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle

Humidity 95% · Pressure 1015.5 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.7 kn

avg · max 14.6 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From NE (46°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1015.5 hPa Rain0.29 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.08 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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