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Singlehanded PCC's: Radial

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Marcus Huttunen '20 3 1 5 1 1 1 5 17
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Lucas Pierce '17 1 6 4 3 6 2 4 26
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 4 16 1 2 5 3 2 33
Westview High School Westview High School Ansgar Jordan '18 20 3 3 4 2 5 3 40
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Max Mayol '19 2 9 6 14 3 6 14 54
Long Beach Wilson High School Long Beach Wilson High School Trent Turigliatto '18 7 2 2 12 19 12 8 62
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School David Wood '19 11 5 10 16 8 16 1 67
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Taisei Hatter '19 6 11 17 8 9 9 11 71
Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Gavin Mcjones '19 5 15 8 10 7 11 17 73
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Diego Escobar '20 8 12 13 5 11 15 9 73
Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Lukas Kraak '19 16 14 14 7 10 4 19 84
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Amanda Majernik '18 19 10 9 13 13 10 10 84
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School John Majernik '20 13 8 7 11 17 14 21 91
Redwood High School Redwood High School Nicholas Sessions '20 28 4 16 18 4 7 20 97
Coronado High School Coronado High School Owen Schafer '17 12 13 20 21 16 21 13 116
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Sumner Strumph '17 29 28 18 17 12 8 7 119
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Reid Wiley '18 17 18 11 15 25 19 16 121
Redwood High School Redwood High School Sarah Young '20 9 7 24 20 20 20 26 126
Alameda High School Alameda High School Drake Hayes '17 25 29 15 6 15 13 28 131
Olympian High School Olympian High School Marianna Shand '20 14 21 21 19 18 18 24 135
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Jonathan Chance '19 10 22 25 22 22 24 15 140
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Claire Lester '19 22 20 12 23 14 DNF 22 145
Los Altos High Los Altos High Albert Zhao '19 23 19 22 27 24 26 12 153
Alameda High School Alameda High School Simon Boeger '19 15 17 27 25 28 27 23 162
Palo Alto High Palo Alto High Andrew Huang '18 26 27 19 26 21 17 27 163
Alameda High School Alameda High School Jonathon Andrews '20 24 23 29 9 23 DNS 25 165
Los Altos High Los Altos High Amir Tadros '19 30 30 23 30 27 22 6 168
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Lizzie Russell '17 21 24 30 24 30 28 18 175
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Cole Pomeroy '19 18 26 26 29 26 25 29 179
Waldorf School of the Peninsula Waldorf School of the Peninsula Oliver Olsen '19 27 25 28 28 29 23 30 190
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Joseph Hou '18 RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF 224

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  31 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Marcus Huttunen '20Point Loma High School Pointers 17/71.875.59+3.7281st → 99th17.9<1%2.4 / 15.5
2Lucas Pierce '17Santa Barbara High School Dons 27/73.104.68+1.5999th → 99th4.72%3.7 / 10.1
3Caden Scheiblauer '19Santa Barbara High School Dons 17/72.034.07+2.0383rd → 99th7.4<1%4.7 / 14.7
4Ansgar Jordan '18Westview High School7/72.103.67+1.5684th → 99th4.93%5.7 / 14.5
5Max Mayol '19Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity 17/72.903.34+0.4497th → 99th0.527%7.7 / 11.0
6Trent Turigliatto '18Long Beach Wilson High School7/72.032.98+0.9583rd → 98th2.113%8.9 / 14.7
7David Wood '19Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity 27/72.292.91+0.6288th → 97th1.022%9.6 / 13.6
8Taisei Hatter '19Point Loma High School Pointers 37/72.002.92+0.9283rd → 98th2.018%10.1 / 14.9
9Diego Escobar '20Point Loma High School Pointers 27/72.472.81+0.3491st → 96th0.329%10.4 / 12.9
9Gavin Mcjones '19Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 17/72.622.81+0.1994th → 96th0.138%10.4 / 12.0
11Amanda Majernik '18The Bishop's School Knights 27/71.812.62+0.8080th → 94th1.624%12.0 / 15.7
11Lukas Kraak '19Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 27/71.452.59+1.1371st → 93rd3.015%12.0 / 17.4
13John Majernik '20The Bishop's School Knights 47/71.092.42+1.3360th → 91st3.912%13.0 / 19.0
14Nicholas Sessions '20Redwood High School Giants 27/73.161.74−1.4399th → 79th7.687%13.9 / 9.8
15Owen Schafer '17Coronado High School7/71.791.84+0.0580th → 81st0.055%16.6 / 16.0
16Sumner Strumph '17The Bay School of San Francisco7/71.251.34+0.0965th → 67th0.040%17.0 / 18.3
17Reid Wiley '18Newport Harbor High School Sailors 27/72.121.70−0.4284th → 78th0.673%17.3 / 14.4
18Sarah Young '20Redwood High School Giants 17/71.981.47−0.5283rd → 72nd0.977%18.0 / 15.0
19Drake Hayes '17Alameda High School Varsity 17/71.501.06−0.4473rd → 60th0.662%18.7 / 17.1
20Marianna Shand '20Olympian High School7/70.401.58+1.1834th → 75th3.228%19.3 / 21.9
21Jonathan Chance '19Sage Hill School7/71.251.28+0.0465th → 67th0.062%20.0 / 18.3
22Claire Lester '19The Bishop's School Knights 37/71.241.60+0.3665th → 75th0.366%20.7 / 18.3
23Albert Zhao '19Los Altos High Eagles 17/71.290.98−0.3167th → 57th0.377%21.9 / 18.0
24Simon Boeger '19Alameda High School Varsity 37/71.570.61−0.9675th → 43rd3.388%23.1 / 17.1
25Andrew Huang '18Palo Alto High7/71.170.91−0.2664th → 54th0.281%23.3 / 18.7
26Jonathon Andrews '20Alameda High School Varsity 27/71.190.85−0.3565th → 52nd0.385%23.6 / 18.4
27Amir Tadros '19Los Altos High Eagles 27/70.53-0.24−0.7739th → 15th1.269%24.0 / 21.4
28Lizzie Russell '17The Bishop's School Knights 17/70.63-0.28−0.9243rd → 15th1.881%25.0 / 20.9
29Cole Pomeroy '19Newport Harbor High School Sailors 37/71.570.31−1.2574th → 31st6.096%25.6 / 16.9
30Oliver Olsen '19Waldorf School of the Peninsula7/71.07u0.03−1.0460th → 23rd3.596%27.1 / 19.1
31Joseph Hou '18Newport Harbor High School Sailors 17/73.04——98th → —0.0>99%32.0 / 10.4

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →