MISSA Cressy Radial Qualifier

HostSheridan Shore Sailing School
Date09/23/2017
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Orono High School	Samuel Bartel '18	41
2	Highland Park High School - IL	Lawson Levine '20	46
3	Kettle Moraine High School	Christian Spencer '18	50
4	Stevenson High School	Ian Harman '22	74
5	Minnetonka High School	Nate Olmsted '19	76
6	South Christian High School	Samuel Boehle '19	78
7	Wayzata High School	Emma Aubuchon '19	80
8	Minnetonka High School	Matthew Kickhafer '19	91
9	Mariemont High School	Henrik Rolander '19	93
10	Black River Public School	Christopher Heideman '20	102
11	Black River Public School	Eden Nykamp '21	117
12	Forest Hills Central High School	Liam Fox '24	119
13	Orono High School	Rachel Bartel '20	119
14	Orono High School	Seamus Hendrickson '21	144
15	Southwest High School	Tighe Case '18	147
16	Jones College Prep	Emmett Nevel '21	151
17	St. Paul Central High School	Aidan Boylan '18	154
18	Orono High School	Erich Pinske '18	177
19	Lyons Township High School	Sam Wojcik '20	182
20	Lake Forest High School	Nicholas Elsasser '18	183
21	Minnetonka High School	Garrett Moen '19	192
22	Benilde St Margarets	Clare Leeper '19	198
23	Orono High School	Archie Bolgar '19	212
24	Evanston Township HS	Ryan Henderson '19	238
25	Hinsdale Central High School	Sherman Thompson '18	260

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Orono High School	Samuel Bartel '18	6	5	3	1	5	2	5	5	3	6	41
Highland Park High School - IL	Lawson Levine '20	4	3	10	6	2	1	4	4	10	2	46
Kettle Moraine High School	Christian Spencer '18	5	11	1	2	1	OCS	1	1	1	1	50
Stevenson High School	Ian Harman '22	7	6	14	3	3	9	12	10	5	5	74
Minnetonka High School	Nate Olmsted '19	1	1	4	18	23	6	2	2	15	4	76
South Christian High School	Samuel Boehle '19	2	9	9	8	7	7	3	6	19	8	78
Wayzata High School	Emma Aubuchon '19	10	12	2	7	4	5	14	14	9	3	80
Minnetonka High School	Matthew Kickhafer '19	3	2	7	12	14	18	6	8	12	9	91
Mariemont High School	Henrik Rolander '19	8	4	11	10	11	14	8	3	13	11	93
Black River Public School	Christopher Heideman '20	9	8	6	17	16	17	7	7	8	7	102
Black River Public School	Eden Nykamp '21	13	10	13	14	9	3	15	12	16	12	117
Forest Hills Central High School	Liam Fox '24	11	7	15	9	8	13	16	9	14	17	119
Orono High School	Rachel Bartel '20	14	13	5	4	19	8	9	DNF	2	19	119
Orono High School	Seamus Hendrickson '21	22	18	8	11	13	OCS	13	19	4	10	144
Southwest High School	Tighe Case '18	15	19	DNF	22	15	4	11	13	7	15	147
Jones College Prep	Emmett Nevel '21	12	17	12	15	6	10	19	18	22	20	151
St. Paul Central High School	Aidan Boylan '18	18	23	DNF	5	10	11	17	11	20	13	154
Orono High School	Erich Pinske '18	17	15	DNF	20	20	12	24	16	6	21	177
Lyons Township High School	Sam Wojcik '20	19	14	DNF	19	12	OCS	10	20	18	18	182
Lake Forest High School	Nicholas Elsasser '18	16	22	DNF	16	17	16	18	15	21	16	183
Minnetonka High School	Garrett Moen '19	21	16	16	24	22	19	22	21	17	14	192
Benilde St Margarets	Clare Leeper '19	24	20	DNF	21	21	15	21	17	11	22	198
Orono High School	Archie Bolgar '19	20	21	DNF	13	18	21	20	DNF	24	23	212
Evanston Township HS	Ryan Henderson '19	23	DNF	DNF	23	24	20	23	DNF	23	24	238
Hinsdale Central High School	Sherman Thompson '18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	260

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 25 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Samuel Bartel '18	Orono High School Scarlet 1	10/10	2.30	3.56	+1.26	88th → 99th	4.6	2%	4.1 / 9.0
2	Lawson Levine '20	Highland Park High School - IL	10/10	2.11	3.13	+1.02	84th → 99th	3.0	3%	4.6 / 9.7
3	Christian Spencer '18	Kettle Moraine High School	10/10	2.49	4.30	+1.80	92nd → 99th	7.0	10%	5.0 / 8.3
4	Ian Harman '22	Stevenson High School	10/10	-0.03	2.15	+2.17	21st → 85th	11.8	<1%	7.4 / 17.1
5	Nate Olmsted '19	Minnetonka High School Skippers 3	10/10	2.15	1.75	−0.40	85th → 79th	0.6	31%	7.6 / 9.7
6	Samuel Boehle '19	South Christian High School	10/10	1.33^u	2.20	+0.87	67th → 86th	2.5	12%	7.8 / 12.5
7	Emma Aubuchon '19	Wayzata High School	10/10	2.03	2.19	+0.16	83rd → 86th	0.1	32%	8.0 / 10.0
8	Matthew Kickhafer '19	Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	10/10	1.86	1.84	−0.02	81st → 81st	0.0	35%	9.1 / 10.4
9	Henrik Rolander '19	Mariemont High School	10/10	0.44	1.96	+1.52	35th → 83rd	6.9	5%	9.3 / 15.5
10	Christopher Heideman '20	Black River Public School Varsity 2	10/10	1.91	1.71	−0.19	82nd → 78th	0.2	49%	10.2 / 10.5
11	Eden Nykamp '21	Black River Public School Varsity 1	10/10	1.41	1.40	−0.01	70th → 70th	0.0	46%	11.7 / 12.1
12	Liam Fox '24	Forest Hills Central High School	10/10	-0.40	1.28	+1.68	13th → 67th	7.9	4%	11.9 / 18.3
12	Rachel Bartel '20	Orono High School Scarlet 2	10/10	1.55	1.61	+0.06	74th → 75th	0.0	54%	11.9 / 11.7
14	Seamus Hendrickson '21	Orono High School Scarlet 5	10/10	1.73	0.90	−0.84	79th → 54th	2.9	81%	14.4 / 11.0
15	Tighe Case '18	Southwest High School	10/10	1.10	1.09	−0.01	61st → 60th	0.0	63%	14.7 / 13.3
16	Emmett Nevel '21	Jones College Prep	10/10	0.37	0.76	+0.39	33rd → 48th	0.6	40%	15.1 / 15.9
17	Aidan Boylan '18	St. Paul Central High School	10/10	0.86	0.76	−0.10	52nd → 48th	0.0	62%	15.4 / 14.2
18	Erich Pinske '18	Orono High School Scarlet 4	10/10	1.20	0.28	−0.92	65th → 30th	3.3	90%	17.7 / 12.8
19	Sam Wojcik '20	Lyons Township High School	10/10	0.82	0.71	−0.11	51st → 46th	0.0	85%	18.2 / 14.3
20	Nicholas Elsasser '18	Lake Forest High School	10/10	0.98	0.54	−0.45	57th → 39th	0.8	89%	18.3 / 13.7
21	Garrett Moen '19	Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	10/10	0.46	-0.52	−0.99	36th → 10th	3.5	84%	19.2 / 15.5
22	Clare Leeper '19	Benilde St Margarets	10/10	-0.12	0.08	+0.19	19th → 24th	0.1	74%	19.8 / 17.5
23	Archie Bolgar '19	Orono High School Scarlet 3	10/10	1.02	-0.54	−1.56	58th → 10th	8.5	98%	21.2 / 13.6
24	Ryan Henderson '19	Evanston Township HS	10/10	0.29	-0.98	−1.27	30th → 4th	4.5	>99%	23.8 / 16.2
25	Sherman Thompson '18	Hinsdale Central High School	10/10	1.34	—	—	68th → —	0.0	>99%	26.0 / 12.3

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

MISSA Cressy Radial Qualifier

Division A 25 boats · 10 races

From the notes