SAISA North Points #1 Jordan Lk

HostRTP HS Sailing/Crosswinds
Date09/16/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Myers Park High School	Mustangs	17	7	24
2	Wando	Wando Warriors	11	29	40
3	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	14	27	41
4	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	28	16	44
5	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	28	18	46
6	Beaufort High School	Varsity	28	22	50
7	Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	25	44	69
8	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	48	24	72
9	John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	30	46	76
10	Bishop England High School	Bishops	46	42	88

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Wando	Wando Warriors	1	3	1	3	3	11	Jamie Renneker '18 Jack Sutton '18
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	2	2	8	1	1	14	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 Jenna Stephens '18
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	4	1	3	2	7	17	Kenny Corsig '19 Powell Forshaw '18
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	3	8	2	7	5	25	Noah Benton '18 [1-5] Ella Smith '20 [1-2] Max Golden '20 [3-5]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	5	5	5	4	9	28	Jacob Thompson '18 Chris Hartman '20
Beaufort High School	Varsity	6	4	7	5	6	28	Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-5] Ian Hoogenboom '20 [1-2] Jacob Lawson '18 [3-5]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	7	7	4	8	2	28	Joey Chomyn '19 Lillian Holland '19
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	8	6	6	6	4	30	Scott Harris '18 Cooper Whitehead '18
Bishop England High School	Bishops	9	9	10	10	8	46	Carter Beall '18 Arianna Borkowski '20
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	10	10	9	9	10	48	Cade Hughes '18 [1-5] Joseph Lane '19 [1-2] Malone Tompkins '21 [3-4] Jonah Daniels '25 [5]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	1	1	1	1	3	7	Adam Larson '19 Will Dobrowski '19
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	4	2	2	7	1	16	Neil Walters '20 Claire Chomyn '21
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	2	5	3	2	6	18	Evan Chenard '20 Megan Guthrie '18
Beaufort High School	Varsity	7	3	4	6	2	22	Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1-5] Sarah Suber '18 [1-2, 5] Thomas Gnann '20 [3-4]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	3	8	5	4	4	24	Cohen Hughes '19 Ian Westerling '18
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	5	4	6	5	7	27	Josh Mergenthaler '21 [1-2, 5] Caden Wilson '20 [3-4] Hayden Sidak '21 [1-2, 5]
Wando	Wando Warriors	8	6	7	3	5	29	Luke Emerson '19 Lauren Creech '19
Bishop England High School	Bishops	9	7	8	8	10	42	Daniel Henesy '18 [1-2] Sanders Linker '19 [3-5] Erin O'Connor '20 [1-2]
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	6	10	10	9	9	44	Ella Smith '20 Jeffery (Jd) Tucker '18
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	10	9	9	10	8	46	Ella Deschamps '21 Dylan Gooding '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Beaufort High School Varsity	1	1	4	4	7
Bishop England High School Bishops	3	3	5	5	8
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	4	4	7	7	9
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	5	5	8	8	10
Myers Park High School Mustangs	7	7	9	9	11
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	8	8	10	10	6
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	9	9	11	11	1
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	10	10	6	6	3
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School	11	11	1	1	4
Wando Wando Warriors	6	6	3	3	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Beaufort High School Varsity	8	8	10	10	6
Bishop England High School Bishops	9	9	11	11	1
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	10	10	6	6	3
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	11	11	1	1	4
Myers Park High School Mustangs	6	6	3	3	5
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	1	1	4	4	7
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	3	3	5	5	8
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	4	4	7	7	9
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School	5	5	8	8	10
Wando Wando Warriors	7	7	9	9	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Beaufort High School	Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-5]	Ian Hoogenboom '20 [1-2] Jacob Lawson '18 [3-5]
Varsity	Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1-5]	Sarah Suber '18 [1-2, 5] Thomas Gnann '20 [3-4]
Bishop England High School	Carter Beall '18	Arianna Borkowski '20
Bishops	Daniel Henesy '18 [1-2] Sanders Linker '19 [3-5]	Erin O'Connor '20 [1-2]
John T. Hoggard High School	Scott Harris '18	Cooper Whitehead '18
Hoggard	Ella Deschamps '21	Dylan Gooding '20
Lake Norman High School	Jacob Thompson '18	Chris Hartman '20
Wildcats	Evan Chenard '20	Megan Guthrie '18
Myers Park High School	Kenny Corsig '19	Powell Forshaw '18
Mustangs	Adam Larson '19	Will Dobrowski '19
Pine Lake Prep	Garrett Mergenthaler '19	Jenna Stephens '18
Varsity	Josh Mergenthaler '21 [1-2, 5] Caden Wilson '20 [3-4]	Hayden Sidak '21 [1-2, 5]
Porter-Gaud School	Joey Chomyn '19	Lillian Holland '19
Varsity	Neil Walters '20	Claire Chomyn '21
Richmond Hill High School	Cade Hughes '18 [1-5]	Joseph Lane '19 [1-2] Malone Tompkins '21 [3-4] Jonah Daniels '25 [5]
Varsity	Cohen Hughes '19	Ian Westerling '18
Waccamaw High School	Noah Benton '18 [1-5]	Ella Smith '20 [1-2] Max Golden '20 [3-5]
Waccamaw High School	Ella Smith '20	Jeffery (Jd) Tucker '18
Wando	Jamie Renneker '18	Jack Sutton '18
Wando Warriors	Luke Emerson '19	Lauren Creech '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA North Points #1 Jordan Lk

Division A

Division B

From the notes