Silver NorCal #2

HostSir Francis Drake
Date10/01/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	The Urban School	Blues	21	21
2	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	29	29
3	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 1	32	32
4	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	48	48
5	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars 2	53	53
6	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 2	54	54
7	Harbor High School	Pirates	59	59
8	Stevenson School	Pirates	62	62
9	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	75	75
10	Acalanes High School	Dons	84	84
11	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	99	99
12	Aptos High School	Mariners	104	104
13	Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs 1	107	107
14	Head Royce	Jayhawks	107	107
15	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	111	111
16	Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs 2	114	114
17	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars 1	116	116
18	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	116	116
19	Design Tech High School	d.tech	143	143
20	Los Altos High	Eagles	150	150
21	Khan Lab School	Khan Lab	176	176

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
The Urban School	Blues	3	2	1	1	8	1	3	2	21	Eli Gordon '20 [1-8] Dillan Srivastava '20 [1, 3, 5, 7] Tristan Bellevin '21 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	1	1	2	2	1	6	12	4	29	James Scherr '20 Bryn Anderson '18
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 1	4	4	4	5	2	7	5	1	32	Nelea Fong '20 Poshu Ng '21
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	2	3	6	7	7	12	8	3	48	Daria Bubnova '20 Paul Ikeda '20
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars 2	9	7	12	8	3	3	4	7	53	Sabrina Simon '21 Benjamin Stevens '21
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 2	11	8	5	3	5	5	1	16	54	Ethan Lowenthal '20 Michael Mcculloch '21
Harbor High School	Pirates	5	19	11	6	4	2	6	6	59	Chloe Long '19 Geza Bateman '21
Stevenson School	Pirates	13	10	3	4	10	8	9	5	62	Taylor Lee '19 Naomi Dommermuth '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	12	9	7	13	13	4	7	10	75	John Overton '20 Jake Bourdages '19
Acalanes High School	Dons	8	5	10	10	9	18	13	11	84	Sophia Browne '20 Lola Rao '20
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	6	12	16	17	6	10	17	15	99	Jonah Benningfield '20 Charlotte Navin '20
Aptos High School	Mariners	10	11	8	16	17	17	16	9	104	Alyssa Meyer '20 Ximena Greatorex '21
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs 1	7	6	DNS	14	16	20	2	20	107	Alexander Nunez '20 Miles Ranieri '21
Head Royce	Jayhawks	17	18	14	9	18	13	10	8	107	Eli Singer '22 Eloise Henry '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	16	16	15	12	19	9	11	13	111	Nickolas Monrique '19 Hudson Nanola '21
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs 2	14	13	18	15	14	11	15	14	114	Joshua Widjanarko '19 Dennis O'Donnell '20
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars 1	15	14	13	18	12	14	18	12	116	Leila O&;Rourke '20 [1-8] Josie Galvin '21 [1-6] Amelia Nugent '21 [7-8]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	20	17	9	11	11	16	14	18	116	Eliot Hall '19 Charles Bohner '21
Design Tech High School	d.tech	18	15	19	DNS	15	15	20	19	143	Erez Harel '20 [1-8] Madelyn Blessinger '19 [1-2, 5-6] Uthman Alaoui '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Los Altos High	Eagles	19	20	17	19	20	19	19	17	150	Alex Dao '22 Griffin Conley '21
Khan Lab School	Khan Lab	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	176	Parth Iyer '21 No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Acalanes High School Dons	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
Aptos High School Mariners	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Convent and Stuart Hall Cubs 1	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Convent and Stuart Hall Cubs 2	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Design Tech High School d.tech	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans 1	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans 2	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Harbor High School Pirates	106	106	106	106	106	106	106	106
Head Royce Jayhawks	56	56	56	56	56	56	56	56
International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars 1	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars 2	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Khan Lab School Khan Lab	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Los Altos High Eagles	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	141	141	141	141	141	141	141	141
Stevenson School Pirates	98	98	98	98	98	98	98	98
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3	139	139	139	139	139	139	139	139
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
The Urban School Blues	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Acalanes High School	Dons	Sophia Browne '20	Lola Rao '20
Aptos High School	Mariners	Alyssa Meyer '20	Ximena Greatorex '21
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs 1	Alexander Nunez '20	Miles Ranieri '21
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs 2	Joshua Widjanarko '19	Dennis O'Donnell '20
Design Tech High School	d.tech	Erez Harel '20 [1-8]	Madelyn Blessinger '19 [1-2, 5-6] Uthman Alaoui '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Harbor High School	Pirates	Chloe Long '19	Geza Bateman '21
Head Royce	Jayhawks	Eli Singer '22	Eloise Henry '20
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 1	Nelea Fong '20	Poshu Ng '21
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 2	Ethan Lowenthal '20	Michael Mcculloch '21
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars 1	Leila O&;Rourke '20 [1-8]	Josie Galvin '21 [1-6] Amelia Nugent '21 [7-8]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars 2	Sabrina Simon '21	Benjamin Stevens '21
Khan Lab School	Khan Lab	Parth Iyer '21	No Show
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	James Scherr '20	Bryn Anderson '18
Los Altos High	Eagles	Alex Dao '22	Griffin Conley '21
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	Daria Bubnova '20	Paul Ikeda '20
Stevenson School	Pirates	Taylor Lee '19	Naomi Dommermuth '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Nickolas Monrique '19	Hudson Nanola '21
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Eliot Hall '19	Charles Bohner '21
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	John Overton '20	Jake Bourdages '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Jonah Benningfield '20	Charlotte Navin '20
The Urban School	Blues	Eli Gordon '20 [1-8]	Dillan Srivastava '20 [1, 3, 5, 7] Tristan Bellevin '21 [2, 4, 6, 8]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Silver NorCal #2

Division A

From the notes