2018 Norcal 3 Silver

HostEncinal Yacht Club
Date11/03/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	18	18
2	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	45	45
3	Redwood High School	Giants 1	50 MRP	50 MRP
4	Harbor High School	Pirates	51	51
5	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	55	55
6	The Urban School	Blues	60	60
7	International HS - SF	Jaguars	63	63
8	San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	77	77
9	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	83	83
10	San Domenico High School	Panthers Silver 1	87	87
11	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	88	88
12	Wildcats	Wildcats	95 MRP	95 MRP
13	Los Gatos High School	Wildcats	98	98
14	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	99	99
15	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 3	100	100
16	Redwood High School	Giants 2	108 MRP	108 MRP
17	Marin Academy	Wildcats	119	119
18	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	129	129
19	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	131	131
20	San Domenico High School	Panthers Silver 2	134	134
21	Piedmont High School	Varsity 2	151	151
22	Los Altos High	Eagles	162	162
23	Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	173	173
24	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	175	175
25	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	183	183
26	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 3	183	183
27	SOTA High School	SOTA 1	183	183
28	Piedmont High School	Varsity 1	185	185
29	Head Royce	Jayhawks	191	191
30	Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	196	196
31	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	200	200
32	SOTA High School	SOTA 2	206	206
33	Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	223	223

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	5	2	2	4	1	2	2	18	Marina Priskich '25 [1-7] Audrey Whitney '22 [1, 3, 5, 7] Brooke Hiller '25 [2, 4, 6]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	8	9	4	7	3	9	5	45	Sebastian Green '22 Miles Raneri '21
Redwood High School	Giants 1	2	1	1	12	6	7	1	50 MRP	Cooper Smith '22 Chas Mitchell '22
Harbor High School	Pirates	4	3	5	17	4	15	3	51	Jt Long '21 Kees Horn '21
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	6	8	8	6	7	13	7	55	Phoebe Mcmahon '21 Jacob Kaplan '21
The Urban School	Blues	10	4	3	18	8	5	12	60	Christopher Mullen '21 Philo Judson '22
International HS - SF	Jaguars	1	5	10	16	13	14	4	63	Julien Prefot '22 Alexander Kasolas '22
San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	12	14	20	9	5	8	9	77	James Iskander '22 [1, 3, 5, 7] Max Stuebe '22 [2, 4, 6] Charlie Sears '22 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	14	12	9	13	11	6	18	83	Gregory Kosmowski '22 Clementine Mohun '22
San Domenico High School	Panthers Silver 1	17	19	11	5	17	12	6	87	Matisse Paulson '22 Rafael Sanchez '22
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	9	6	6	14	21	21	11	88	Ian Brown '21 Lilah Parker '22
Wildcats	Wildcats	3	11	14	8	2	3	DNF	95 MRP
Los Gatos High School	Wildcats	26	15	13	26	9	1	8	98	Dana Yong '25 Dawson Xuan '22
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	13	7	7	1	DNF	20	17	99	Michael Mannik '21 Ella Wadbrook '22
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 3	15	23	18	2	19	10	13	100	George Clyde '22 [1-2, 5-6] Althea White '21 [3-4, 7] Millay Metz '22 [1-2, 5-6] Emilia Suska '22 [3-4, 7]
Redwood High School	Giants 2	7	21	31	3	12	4	10	108 MRP	Bodhi "Bo" Tippo '21 [1-2, 4-7] Morgan Moseley '22 [3] Paddy O'Connor '22 [1, 3, 5-7] Morgan Moseley '22 [2, 4]
Marin Academy	Wildcats	11	13	15	10	DNF	22	14	119	Chase Bent '22 Allegra O'Brien '22
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	20	18	12	11	10	24	DNF	129	Ian Somerville '22 Ceci Meade '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	21	17	21	20	20	17	15	131	Alyssa Barkus '21 Kendall Scanlan '21
San Domenico High School	Panthers Silver 2	16	20	27	19	25	11	16	134	Hiroki Coyle '21 Julia Vierra '22
Piedmont High School	Varsity 2	18	25	23	24	14	28	19	151	Diego Jerez '20 Jacob Hsia '22
Los Altos High	Eagles	29	22	19	22	24	25	21	162	Deniz Ozcan '26 Sofia Markarian '22
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	25	26	17	27	26	18	DNF	173	Ava Celentano '23 Leah Smith '23
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	32	10	30	28	22	19	DNF	175	Teddy Knobel '21 [1-7] Nico Chapman '22 [1-2, 5-6] Uthman Alaoui '19 [3-4, 7]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	27	28	26	23	18	27	DNF	183	Luke Watson '20 [1-2, 5-7] Griffin Conley '21 [3-4] Jared Chou '22 [1-2, 5-7] Darius Mahamedi '22 [3-4]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 3	28	27	29	15	16	DNF	DNF	183	Andrew Andrzejek '22 Thalia Altschul '22
SOTA High School	SOTA 1	30	24	24	21	DNF	16	DNF	183	Cal Smolenski '23 [1-7] Dylan Rousseau '21 [1-3] Aukje Van Eck '20 [4-7]
Piedmont High School	Varsity 1	22	16	25	31	23	DNF	DNF	185	Sara Govert '22 Mark Hsia '24
Head Royce	Jayhawks	23	31	16	30	DNF	23	DNF	191	Christopher Feely '22 [1-5] Pierce Yeary '20 [6-7] Dylan Suzuki '22 [1-5]
Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	33	29	22	29	15	DNF	DNF	196	Anna Novolt '22 [1-7] Chloe Marinerstein '22 [1-3] Natalie Novolt '22 [4-7]
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	31	30	33	25	27	DNF	20	200	Megan Amen-Kroeger '22 [1-2, 5-6] Cody Levine '22 [3-4, 7] Lassi Sevanto '22 [1-2, 5-6] Mira Decker '22 [3-4, 7]
SOTA High School	SOTA 2	19	33	28	32	DNF	26	DNF	206	No Show No Show
Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	24	32	32	33	DNF	DNF	DNF	223	Calvin Smith '22 [1-5] Nathan Freed '23 [6-7] Nathan Freed '23 [1-2, 5] Will King '23 [3-4] Calvin Smith '22 [6-7]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1	95	95	95	95	95	95	95
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2	59	59	59	59	59	59	59
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 3	64	64	64	64	64	64	64
Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 1	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 2	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Design Tech High School d.tech 1	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Design Tech High School d.tech 2	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Harbor High School Pirates	106	106	106	106	106	106	106
Head Royce Jayhawks	52	52	52	52	52	52	52
International HS - SF Jaguars	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Los Altos High Eagles	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Los Gatos High School Wildcats	105	105	105	105	105	105	105
Lowell High School - CA Cardinals	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Marin Academy Wildcats	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Wildcats Wildcats	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Piedmont High School Varsity 1	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
Piedmont High School Varsity 2	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
Redwood High School Giants 1	124	124	124	124	124	124	124
Redwood High School Giants 2	123	123	123	123	123	123	123
San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 1	136	136	136	136	136	136	136
San Domenico High School Panthers Silver 2	135	135	135	135	135	135	135
San Francisco University High School San Francisco	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
SOTA High School SOTA 1	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
SOTA High School SOTA 2	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	79	79	79	79	79	79	79
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	140	140	140	140	140	140	140
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	82	82	82	82	82	82	82
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 3	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
The Urban School Blues	6	6	6	6	6	6	6

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	Michael Mannik '21	Ella Wadbrook '22
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	Megan Amen-Kroeger '22 [1-2, 5-6] Cody Levine '22 [3-4, 7]	Lassi Sevanto '22 [1-2, 5-6] Mira Decker '22 [3-4, 7]
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 3	George Clyde '22 [1-2, 5-6] Althea White '21 [3-4, 7]	Millay Metz '22 [1-2, 5-6] Emilia Suska '22 [3-4, 7]
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	Ava Celentano '23	Leah Smith '23
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	Sebastian Green '22	Miles Raneri '21
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	Gregory Kosmowski '22	Clementine Mohun '22
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	Teddy Knobel '21 [1-7]	Nico Chapman '22 [1-2, 5-6] Uthman Alaoui '19 [3-4, 7]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	Luke Watson '20 [1-2, 5-7] Griffin Conley '21 [3-4]	Jared Chou '22 [1-2, 5-7] Darius Mahamedi '22 [3-4]
Harbor High School	Pirates	Jt Long '21	Kees Horn '21
Head Royce	Jayhawks	Christopher Feely '22 [1-5] Pierce Yeary '20 [6-7]	Dylan Suzuki '22 [1-5]
International HS - SF	Jaguars	Julien Prefot '22	Alexander Kasolas '22
Los Altos High	Eagles	Deniz Ozcan '26	Sofia Markarian '22
Los Gatos High School	Wildcats	Dana Yong '25	Dawson Xuan '22
Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	Anna Novolt '22 [1-7]	Chloe Marinerstein '22 [1-3] Natalie Novolt '22 [4-7]
Marin Academy	Wildcats	Chase Bent '22	Allegra O'Brien '22
Mountain View High School (CA)	Mountain View	Calvin Smith '22 [1-5] Nathan Freed '23 [6-7]	Nathan Freed '23 [1-2, 5] Will King '23 [3-4] Calvin Smith '22 [6-7]
Piedmont High School	Varsity 1	Sara Govert '22	Mark Hsia '24
Piedmont High School	Varsity 2	Diego Jerez '20	Jacob Hsia '22
Redwood High School	Giants 1	Cooper Smith '22	Chas Mitchell '22
Redwood High School	Giants 2	Bodhi "Bo" Tippo '21 [1-2, 4-7] Morgan Moseley '22 [3]	Paddy O'Connor '22 [1, 3, 5-7] Morgan Moseley '22 [2, 4]
SOTA High School	SOTA 1	Cal Smolenski '23 [1-7]	Dylan Rousseau '21 [1-3] Aukje Van Eck '20 [4-7]
SOTA High School	SOTA 2	No Show	No Show
San Domenico High School	Panthers Silver 1	Matisse Paulson '22	Rafael Sanchez '22
San Domenico High School	Panthers Silver 2	Hiroki Coyle '21	Julia Vierra '22
San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	James Iskander '22 [1, 3, 5, 7] Max Stuebe '22 [2, 4, 6]	Charlie Sears '22 [1, 3, 5, 7]
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	Marina Priskich '25 [1-7]	Audrey Whitney '22 [1, 3, 5, 7] Brooke Hiller '25 [2, 4, 6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Alyssa Barkus '21	Kendall Scanlan '21
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Ian Somerville '22	Ceci Meade '20
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	Ian Brown '21	Lilah Parker '22
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Phoebe Mcmahon '21	Jacob Kaplan '21
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 3	Andrew Andrzejek '22	Thalia Altschul '22
The Urban School	Blues	Christopher Mullen '21	Philo Judson '22

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2018 Norcal 3 Silver

Division A

From the notes