Navigate

MISSA Cressy Radial Qualifier

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Jack Baldwin '22 26
2 Highland Park High School - IL Highland Park High School - IL Lawson Levine '20 28
3 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Spencer Barnes '20 40
4 Black River Public School Black River Public School Eden Nykamp '21 46
5 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Nate Olmsted '19 54
6 Novi High School Novi High School Michael Kirkman '21 54
7 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Graham Ness '19 63
8 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Emma Aubuchon '19 73
9 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Frank Frisinger '19 75
10 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Noah Robitshek '21 77
11 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 85
12 Black River Public School Black River Public School Christopher Heideman '20 96
13 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Billy Vogel '21 101
14 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Will Carroll '21 113
15 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Murphy Wynsma '19 124
16 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Ryan Henderson '19 125
17 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 128
18 Orono High School Orono High School Archie Bolgar '19 130
19 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Matthew Elliott '20 135
20 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Ethan Lee '19 160
21 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Kate Mackeigan '19 164
22 New Trier HS New Trier HS Henry Merrilees '20 168
23 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Hazel Mcgovern '21 169
24 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Benny Wild '22 170
25 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Zoe Czadzeck '20 170
26 Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 178
27 Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Elizabeth Gildea '20 182
28 Carmel High School - IL Carmel High School - IL Luke Ackerman '19 191
29 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Isabel Dziuba '19 193
30 Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Owen Steger '21 197
31 New Trier HS New Trier HS Aidan Lane '20 208
32 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Annika Lampen '21 217
33 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Griffin Phares '21 218
34 Farmington High School Farmington High School Samuel Monique '21 221
35 Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Grace Quasebarth '20 223
36 Southwest High School Southwest High School James Jagielski '21 237
37 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Oleksa Zobkiv '22 249
38 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jake Elsen '21 249
39 Troy High School Troy High School Emily Pytell '21 252
40 Southwest High School Southwest High School Gints Pelecis '21 261
41 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Ellen Tovb '19 275
42 Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit Marina Lamphier '20 280
43 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Nicole Millerman '19 294
44 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Gabe Maday '22 296
45 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Collin Gordon '21 299
46 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Michael Janowics '21 300
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Jack Baldwin '22 4 2 2 2 7 4 5 26
Highland Park High School - IL Highland Park High School - IL Lawson Levine '20 1 1 7 5 3 3 8 28
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Spencer Barnes '20 5 3 3 3 5 10 11 40
Black River Public School Black River Public School Eden Nykamp '21 6 19 6 7 2 2 4 46
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Nate Olmsted '19 8 15 15 10 4 1 1 54
Novi High School Novi High School Michael Kirkman '21 25 11 1 4 6 5 2 54
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Graham Ness '19 2 7 9 6 18 8 13 63
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Emma Aubuchon '19 11 8 20 14 11 6 3 73
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Frank Frisinger '19 7 16 24 11 1 7 9 75
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Noah Robitshek '21 10 6 13 13 14 9 12 77
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 3 10 12 9 8 19 24 85
Black River Public School Black River Public School Christopher Heideman '20 9 4 11 8 13 34 17 96
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Billy Vogel '21 17 20 16 1 16 24 7 101
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Will Carroll '21 14 14 18 12 12 21 22 113
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Murphy Wynsma '19 16 12 4 17 34 11 30 124
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Ryan Henderson '19 DNS 9 8 16 17 13 15 125
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 35 26 21 15 9 12 10 128
Orono High School Orono High School Archie Bolgar '19 19 13 23 27 15 27 6 130
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Matthew Elliott '20 23 18 5 19 21 23 26 135
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Ethan Lee '19 21 22 28 20 10 31 28 160
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Kate Mackeigan '19 27 25 27 23 24 18 20 164
New Trier HS New Trier HS Henry Merrilees '20 15 5 31 24 30 28 35 168
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Hazel Mcgovern '21 22 24 17 28 25 22 31 169
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Benny Wild '22 13 23 22 21 22 33 36 170
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Zoe Czadzeck '20 20 32 29 18 28 25 18 170
Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 DNS 27 14 38 19 17 16 178
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Elizabeth Gildea '20 24 28 25 33 20 15 37 182
Carmel High School - IL Carmel High School - IL Luke Ackerman '19 26 29 26 32 26 29 23 191
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Isabel Dziuba '19 37 30 33 25 33 16 19 193
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Owen Steger '21 12 21 10 36 40 37 41 197
New Trier HS New Trier HS Aidan Lane '20 18 17 34 30 35 41 33 208
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Annika Lampen '21 DNS 33 35 34 23 20 25 217
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Griffin Phares '21 29 41 19 35 31 36 27 218
Farmington High School Farmington High School Samuel Monique '21 39 34 37 29 29 39 14 221
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Grace Quasebarth '20 32 38 36 26 32 30 29 223
Southwest High School Southwest High School James Jagielski '21 DNS DNS 32 40 36 14 21 237
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Oleksa Zobkiv '22 30 43 44 31 27 40 34 249
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jake Elsen '21 31 35 30 37 42 35 39 249
Troy High School Troy High School Emily Pytell '21 33 37 40 22 43 32 45 252
Southwest High School Southwest High School Gints Pelecis '21 DNS 36 38 44 38 26 32 261
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Ellen Tovb '19 34 39 41 42 41 38 40 275
Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit Marina Lamphier '20 40 40 39 39 39 45 38 280
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Nicole Millerman '19 28 31 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS 294
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Gabe Maday '22 36 42 42 43 45 44 44 296
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Collin Gordon '21 38 44 43 45 44 43 42 299
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Michael Janowics '21 DNF 45 45 41 37 42 43 300

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  46 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Jack Baldwin '22St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL7/73.174.60+1.4399th → 99th3.92%3.7 / 10.6
2Lawson Levine '20Highland Park High School - IL7/72.114.49+2.3884th → 99th9.5<1%4.0 / 16.4
3Spencer Barnes '20St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 17/72.403.83+1.4391st → 99th4.22%5.7 / 14.8
4Eden Nykamp '21Black River Public School Varsity 17/71.833.50+1.6881st → 99th5.61%6.6 / 18.3
5Michael Kirkman '21Novi High School7/72.572.93+0.3693rd → 98th0.316%7.7 / 14.0
5Nate Olmsted '19Minnetonka High School Skippers 27/72.393.23+0.8490th → 99th1.712%7.7 / 15.1
7Graham Ness '19Minnetonka High School Skippers 17/72.133.02+0.8984th → 98th1.913%9.0 / 16.8
8Emma Aubuchon '19Wayzata High School Navy 17/72.022.75+0.7483rd → 95th1.316%10.4 / 17.6
9Frank Frisinger '19Grand Haven High School7/71.712.65+0.9478th → 94th2.111%10.7 / 19.3
10Noah Robitshek '21Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 17/71.712.75+1.0578th → 95th2.612%11.0 / 19.2
11Owen Harrod '22Mahtomedi7/71.742.45+0.7179th → 91st1.312%12.1 / 19.1
12Christopher Heideman '20Black River Public School Varsity 27/71.922.03+0.1182nd → 83rd0.030%13.7 / 18.1
13Billy Vogel '21Grosse Pointe South High School7/71.422.14+0.7271st → 85th1.315%14.4 / 21.0
14Will Carroll '21St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 27/71.262.04+0.7866th → 83rd1.522%16.1 / 22.2
15Murphy Wynsma '19East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 37/71.291.55+0.2667th → 74th0.231%17.7 / 21.9
16Ryan Henderson '19Evanston Township HS7/70.722.46+1.7446th → 91st5.315%17.9 / 26.0
17Owen Bannasch '22Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI7/70.841.42+0.5851st → 71st0.915%18.3 / 24.8
18Archie Bolgar '19Orono High School7/71.151.65+0.5063rd → 76th0.729%18.6 / 23.0
19Matthew Elliott '20West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 37/70.921.62+0.6955th → 75th1.221%19.3 / 24.4
20Ethan Lee '19Detroit Country Day School7/70.831.26+0.4351st → 66th0.539%22.9 / 25.1
21Kate Mackeigan '19East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 17/70.951.25+0.3056th → 65th0.346%23.4 / 24.4
22Henry Merrilees '20New Trier HS Trevian 27/70.831.02+0.1951st → 58th0.147%24.0 / 24.8
23Hazel Mcgovern '21East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 27/70.831.17+0.3451st → 64th0.347%24.1 / 24.8
24Benny Wild '22University of Chicago Laboratory Schools7/71.181.05−0.1365th → 59th0.159%24.3 / 22.6
24Zoe Czadzeck '20Spring Lake High School Red 17/71.711.09−0.6278th → 60th1.475%24.3 / 19.3
26Calvin Lamosse '21Southwest High School Lakers 27/71.161.15−0.0163rd → 63rd0.063%25.4 / 23.0
27Elizabeth Gildea '20Brother Rice High School - IL7/70.390.90+0.5034th → 54th0.735%26.0 / 28.1
28Luke Ackerman '19Carmel High School - IL7/70.260.91+0.6530th → 54th1.141%27.3 / 28.8
29Isabel Dziuba '19West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 47/70.560.60+0.0441st → 42nd0.054%27.6 / 26.7
30Owen Steger '21Grand Rapids Christian High School7/70.220.38+0.1628th → 33rd0.144%28.1 / 28.9
31Aidan Lane '20New Trier HS Trevian 17/70.260.46+0.2129th → 36th0.155%29.7 / 28.5
32Annika Lampen '21East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 47/70.290.73+0.4430th → 47th0.562%31.0 / 28.4
33Griffin Phares '21Spring Lake High School Red 27/70.520.37−0.1539th → 33rd0.168%31.1 / 27.2
34Samuel Monique '21Farmington High School7/70.350.11−0.2432nd → 25th0.265%31.6 / 28.1
35Grace Quasebarth '20Saint Joseph Academy (OH)7/70.350.42+0.0732nd → 34th0.069%31.9 / 27.9
36James Jagielski '21Southwest High School Lakers 17/70.650.47−0.1844th → 36th0.185%33.9 / 26.3
37Jake Elsen '21West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 27/70.590.01−0.5942nd → 22nd1.288%35.6 / 26.5
37Oleksa Zobkiv '22Lake Forest High School Scouts 27/70.95u-0.35−1.3056th → 14th6.594%35.6 / 24.3
39Emily Pytell '21Troy High School7/70.76-0.54−1.3049th → 10th6.093%36.0 / 25.3
40Gints Pelecis '21Southwest High School Lakers 37/70.19-0.17−0.3527th → 17th0.387%37.3 / 29.2
41Ellen Tovb '19Wayzata High School Navy 27/70.74u-0.42−1.1647th → 12th5.597%39.3 / 25.6
42Marina Lamphier '20Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit7/70.38-1.05−1.4333rd → 4th6.497%40.0 / 28.0
43Nicole Millerman '19West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 17/70.940.65−0.2956th → 44th0.1>99%42.0 / 24.4
44Gabe Maday '22St. Francis High School Traverse City7/70.36-1.19−1.5533rd → 3rd9.099%42.3 / 28.1
45Collin Gordon '21Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 27/7-0.12-1.23−1.1119th → 2nd4.197%42.7 / 31.0
46Michael Janowics '21Lake Forest High School Scouts 17/7-0.37-1.33−0.9614th → 2nd2.096%42.9 / 32.6

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →