North Points #1 -- Jordan Lake

HostCarrboro
Date11/03/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Wando High School	Wando Warriors	22	25	47
2	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	33	24	57
3	The Walker School	Wolverines	39	18	57
4	Beaufort High School	Varsity	47	21	68
5	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	42	27	69
6	John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	30	40	70
7	Hough High School	Hough High School	46	28	74
8	Myers Park High School	Mustangs	10	69	79
9	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	50	31	81
10	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	34	63	97
11	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	51	55	106
12	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	54	59	113

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	3	1	3	1	1	1	10	Adam Larson '19 Noah Carroll '19
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	2	4	1	3	9	3	22	Zack Carvajal '22 [1-6] Laura Johnston '21 [1-4] Lauren Creech '19 [5-6]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	BKD	BKD	10	4	4	2	30	Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-6] Luke Burton '22 [1-2] Jack Gigante '22 [3-4] Andrew Todesco '22 [5-6]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	4	6	4	5	6	8	33	Evan Chenard '20 [1-6] Chris Hartman '20 [1-2] Bobby Missert '20 [3-6]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	1	2	2	DSQ	11	5	34	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-6] William Lewis '21 [1-2] Kellen Donlon '22 [3-6]
The Walker School	Wolverines	6	7	9	8	3	6	39	Carlyn Blauvelt '19 Erika Kaczynski '20
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	8	8	6	2	7	11	42	Josh Mergenthaler '21 [1-6] Maddie Nusbaum '21 [1-2] Hayden Sidak '21 [3-6]
Hough High School	Hough High School	11	5	8	10	2	10	46	Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-6] Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2] Lucas Porter '21 [3-4] Holladay Crook '22 [5-6]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	5	12	7	11	8	4	47	Ian Hoogenboom '20 [1-6] Brock Blonski '22 [1-2, 5-6] Court Martin '21 [3-4]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	12	3	5	6	12	12	50	Carson Shaw '22 [1] Megan Fetterley '19 [2-6] Megan Fetterley '19 [1] Carson Shaw '22 [2-6]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	9	10	11	9	5	7	51	Manning Unger '21 Carrie Metts '19
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	7	9	12	7	10	9	54	Cohen Hughes '19 Sarah Cunningham '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
The Walker School	Wolverines	2	2	5	1	3	5	18	Evie Blauvelt '21 [1-6] Katrin Surkan '21 [1-2, 5-6] Grayson Berrier '21 [3-4]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	6	1	3	6	1	4	21	Clay Myers '21 [1-6] Thomas Gnann '20 [1-2, 5-6] Brian Rogers '22 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	1	5	6	5	6	1	24	Chris Hartman '20 [1-6] Tyler Bland '21 [1-2, 5-6] Joe Nash '20 [3-4]
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	3	BKD	1	2	8	7	25	Heyward Main '19 [1-6] Addison Terry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Lauren Creech '19 [3-4]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	8	4	4	3	5	3	27	Caden Wilson '20 [1-6] Alli Volk '21 [1-2] Neil Singh '22 [3-6]
Hough High School	Hough High School	4	6	8	4	4	2	28	Evan West '22 [1-6] Holladay Crook '22 [1-2] Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [3-4] Lucas Porter '21 [5-6]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	7	7	2	7	2	6	31	Mason Baird '22 [1-6] Jack Mckenzie '22 [1-2, 5-6] Britton Durst '19 [3-4]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	5	3	7	8	7	10	40	Neil Bunce '21 Luke Burton '22
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	9	10	10	9	9	8	55	Clay Hershey '22 [1-6] Caelan Paquette '20 [1-4] Sara Beall '22 [5-6]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	10	8	11	11	10	9	59	Joseph Lane '19 [1-6] Andrew Foley '21 [1-2, 5-6] Patricia George '20 [3-4]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	12	9	9	10	11	12	63	William Lewis '21 Kate Smith '19
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	11	11	12	12	12	11	69	Elinor Kelly '19 Anna Carroll '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	71	71	5	5
Beaufort High School Varsity	2	2	4	4	10	10
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	71	71	5	5	7	7
Hough High School Hough High School	4	4	10	10	8	8
James Island Charter High School Varsity	5	5	7	7	11	11
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	10	10	8	8	6	6
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	7	7	11	11	9	9
Myers Park High School Mustangs	8	8	6	6	12	12
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	11	11	9	9	1	1
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	6	6	12	12	2	2
The Walker School Wolverines	9	9	1	1	71	71
Wando High School Wando Warriors	12	12	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	2	2	4	4	10	10
Beaufort High School Varsity	71	71	5	5	7	7
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	4	4	10	10	8	8
Hough High School Hough High School	5	5	7	7	11	11
James Island Charter High School Varsity	10	10	8	8	6	6
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	7	7	11	11	9	9
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	8	8	6	6	12	12
Myers Park High School Mustangs	11	11	9	9	1	1
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	6	6	12	12	2	2
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	9	9	1	1	71	71
The Walker School Wolverines	12	12	2	2	4	4
Wando High School Wando Warriors	1	1	71	71	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Manning Unger '21	Carrie Metts '19
Raptors A	Clay Hershey '22 [1-6]	Caelan Paquette '20 [1-4] Sara Beall '22 [5-6]
Beaufort High School	Ian Hoogenboom '20 [1-6]	Brock Blonski '22 [1-2, 5-6] Court Martin '21 [3-4]
Varsity	Clay Myers '21 [1-6]	Thomas Gnann '20 [1-2, 5-6] Brian Rogers '22 [3-4]
Cape Fear Academy	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-6]	William Lewis '21 [1-2] Kellen Donlon '22 [3-6]
CFA Varsity	William Lewis '21	Kate Smith '19
Hough High School	Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-6]	Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2] Lucas Porter '21 [3-4] Holladay Crook '22 [5-6]
Hough High School	Evan West '22 [1-6]	Holladay Crook '22 [1-2] Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [3-4] Lucas Porter '21 [5-6]
James Island Charter High School	Carson Shaw '22 [1] Megan Fetterley '19 [2-6]	Megan Fetterley '19 [1] Carson Shaw '22 [2-6]
Varsity	Mason Baird '22 [1-6]	Jack Mckenzie '22 [1-2, 5-6] Britton Durst '19 [3-4]
John Paul II (SC)	Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-6]	Luke Burton '22 [1-2] Jack Gigante '22 [3-4] Andrew Todesco '22 [5-6]
Varsity	Neil Bunce '21	Luke Burton '22
Lake Norman High School	Evan Chenard '20 [1-6]	Chris Hartman '20 [1-2] Bobby Missert '20 [3-6]
Wildcats	Chris Hartman '20 [1-6]	Tyler Bland '21 [1-2, 5-6] Joe Nash '20 [3-4]
Myers Park High School	Adam Larson '19	Noah Carroll '19
Mustangs	Elinor Kelly '19	Anna Carroll '22
Pine Lake Prep	Josh Mergenthaler '21 [1-6]	Maddie Nusbaum '21 [1-2] Hayden Sidak '21 [3-6]
Varsity	Caden Wilson '20 [1-6]	Alli Volk '21 [1-2] Neil Singh '22 [3-6]
Richmond Hill High School	Cohen Hughes '19	Sarah Cunningham '20
Varsity	Joseph Lane '19 [1-6]	Andrew Foley '21 [1-2, 5-6] Patricia George '20 [3-4]
The Walker School	Carlyn Blauvelt '19	Erika Kaczynski '20
Wolverines	Evie Blauvelt '21 [1-6]	Katrin Surkan '21 [1-2, 5-6] Grayson Berrier '21 [3-4]
Wando High School	Zack Carvajal '22 [1-6]	Laura Johnston '21 [1-4] Lauren Creech '19 [5-6]
Wando Warriors	Heyward Main '19 [1-6]	Addison Terry '19 [1-2, 5-6] Lauren Creech '19 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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North Points #1 -- Jordan Lake

Division A

Division B

From the notes