SAISA Beaufort Open

HostBeaufort
Date10/27/2018
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Beaufort High School	Varsity	36	22	58
2	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	30	45	75
3	Wando High School	Wando Warriors	43	40	83
4	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	57	27	84
5	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	40	46	86
6	Beaufort High School	JV	55	39	94
7	Ashley Hall	Panthers	59	36	95
8	Wando High School	Wando JV	62	47	109
9	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny Red	55	87	142
10	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	57	88	145
11	Glynn Academy	Varsity	71	79	150
12	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	83	75	158
13	James Island Charter High School	JV	82	97	179

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	6	5	2	1	1	1	12	2	30	Chris Mccollum '20 [1-8] Cross Thomas '23 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Swingle '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	3	2	1	DSQ	9	5	1	1	36	Ian Hoogenboom '20 Brian Rogers '22
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	1	4	3	2	6	2	8	DNS	40	Jack Mckenzie '22 Everett Davis '19
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	4	1	6	5	5	8	4	10	43	Luke Emerson '19 Rosemary Delamater '20
Beaufort High School	JV	7	6	9	8	2	7	9	7	55	Thomas Gnann '20 [1-8] James Fabian '23 [1-4] Brock Blonski '22 [5-8]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny Red	10	13	12	6	3	3	5	3	55	Joseph Bradley Iv '19 [1-8] Kate Bailey '22 [1-2, 7-8] Christian Jubran '21 [3-4] William Silvistri '22 [5-6]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	5	9	10	9	7	9	3	5	57	Colin Bailey '19 [1-8] Tia Schoening '22 [1-2, 7-8] Olivia Dean '21 [3-4] Aidan Araya-Wolff '22 [5-6]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	9	3	8	7	8	11	2	9	57	Davis Leath '20 Sara Beall '22
Ashley Hall	Panthers	8	7	5	10	4	4	13	8	59	Julianna Skoglund '19 [1-2, 5-6] Sarah Marshall '21 [3-4, 7-8] Sarah Marshall '21 [1-2, 5-6] Julianna Skoglund '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Wando High School	Wando JV	2	10	13	3	10	13	7	4	62	Walker Hussey '23 [1-8] Tyler Payzant '21 [1-2] Michael Douglas '21 [3-8]
Glynn Academy	Varsity	11	12	4	4	12	10	6	12	71	Sarah Weese '20 [1-4] Zane Buchli '22 [5-8] Zane Buchli '22 [1-4] Sarah Weese '20 [5-8]
James Island Charter High School	JV	12	11	11	12	13	6	11	6	82	Mcgill Woodward '21 [1-8] Gabriel Medlin '22 [1-4] Camdyn Williams '21 [5-8]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	13	8	7	11	11	12	10	11	83	Chris Hartman '20 Bryson Barron '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Beaufort High School	Varsity	1	1	8	3	3	1	3	2	22	Clay Myers '21 Court Martin '21
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	3	6	3	2	1	4	1	7	27	Manning Unger '21 [1-8] Kristen Cooper '21 [1-4] Clay Hershey '22 [5-8]
Ashley Hall	Panthers	6	4	6	1	8	3	7	1	36	Andrea Melnik '23 Davis Murrell '23
Beaufort High School	JV	5	2	1	5	6	7	8	5	39	Edmund Mccalister '20 Robert Mccalister '23
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	2	5	5	6	4	2	4	12	40	Ben Labarca '20 Adi Edens '21
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	7	3	2	7	9	8	6	3	45	Scott Busey '23 [1-8] Jacob Soulby '22 [1-2, 5-6] Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-4, 7-8]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	4	7	10	9	5	5	2	4	46	Matthew Rourk '21 Jeb Stevens '22
Wando High School	Wando JV	11	9	4	4	2	6	5	6	47	Liam Marguglio '21 [1-8] Tyler Payzant '21 [1-2] Joseph Grech '21 [3-8]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	10	10	7	8	7	9	13	11	75	Samuel Hiner '21 Carson Faulkner '21
Glynn Academy	Varsity	9	8	11	10	12	11	9	9	79	Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [1-2, 5-6] Brooke Zell '20 [3-4, 7-8] Brooke Zell '20 [1-2, 5-6] Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny Red	8	11	13	11	13	10	11	10	87	Ella Schoening '19 [1-8] Jonah Brewer '21 [1-2, 5-6] Sean Seabrooke '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	13	13	9	12	11	12	10	8	88	Lauren Eichler '21 [1-8] Caroline Goodwin '21 [1-2, 5-6] Max Bass '19 [3-4] Olivia Dean '21 [7-8]
James Island Charter High School	JV	12	12	12	13	10	13	12	13	97	Jack Kronsberg '22 [1-8] Camdyn Williams '21 [1-4] Gabriel Medlin '22 [5-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Ashley Hall Panthers	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Beaufort High School JV	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Beaufort High School Varsity	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny Red	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Glynn Academy Varsity	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
James Island Charter High School JV	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
James Island Charter High School Varsity	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	11	11	12	12	13	13	1	1
Wando High School Wando JV	13	13	1	1	2	2	3	3
Wando High School Wando Warriors	12	12	13	13	1	1	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Ashley Hall Panthers	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Beaufort High School JV	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Beaufort High School Varsity	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	11	11	12	12	13	13	1	1
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny Red	12	12	13	13	1	1	2	2
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	13	13	1	1	2	2	3	3
Glynn Academy Varsity	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
James Island Charter High School JV	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
James Island Charter High School Varsity	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Wando High School Wando JV	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Wando High School Wando Warriors	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Davis Leath '20	Sara Beall '22
Raptors A	Manning Unger '21 [1-8]	Kristen Cooper '21 [1-4] Clay Hershey '22 [5-8]
Ashley Hall	Julianna Skoglund '19 [1-2, 5-6] Sarah Marshall '21 [3-4, 7-8]	Sarah Marshall '21 [1-2, 5-6] Julianna Skoglund '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Panthers	Andrea Melnik '23	Davis Murrell '23
Beaufort High School	Thomas Gnann '20 [1-8]	James Fabian '23 [1-4] Brock Blonski '22 [5-8]
JV	Edmund Mccalister '20	Robert Mccalister '23
Beaufort High School	Ian Hoogenboom '20	Brian Rogers '22
Varsity	Clay Myers '21	Court Martin '21
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Colin Bailey '19 [1-8]	Tia Schoening '22 [1-2, 7-8] Olivia Dean '21 [3-4] Aidan Araya-Wolff '22 [5-6]
Bishop Kenny	Lauren Eichler '21 [1-8]	Caroline Goodwin '21 [1-2, 5-6] Max Bass '19 [3-4] Olivia Dean '21 [7-8]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Joseph Bradley Iv '19 [1-8]	Kate Bailey '22 [1-2, 7-8] Christian Jubran '21 [3-4] William Silvistri '22 [5-6]
Bishop Kenny Red	Ella Schoening '19 [1-8]	Jonah Brewer '21 [1-2, 5-6] Sean Seabrooke '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Chris Mccollum '20 [1-8]	Cross Thomas '23 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Swingle '19 [3-4, 7-8]
ESJ	Scott Busey '23 [1-8]	Jacob Soulby '22 [1-2, 5-6] Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Glynn Academy	Sarah Weese '20 [1-4] Zane Buchli '22 [5-8]	Zane Buchli '22 [1-4] Sarah Weese '20 [5-8]
Varsity	Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [1-2, 5-6] Brooke Zell '20 [3-4, 7-8]	Brooke Zell '20 [1-2, 5-6] Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [3-4, 7-8]
James Island Charter High School	Mcgill Woodward '21 [1-8]	Gabriel Medlin '22 [1-4] Camdyn Williams '21 [5-8]
JV	Jack Kronsberg '22 [1-8]	Camdyn Williams '21 [1-4] Gabriel Medlin '22 [5-8]
James Island Charter High School	Jack Mckenzie '22	Everett Davis '19
Varsity	Matthew Rourk '21	Jeb Stevens '22
Lake Norman High School	Chris Hartman '20	Bryson Barron '19
Wildcats	Samuel Hiner '21	Carson Faulkner '21
Wando High School	Walker Hussey '23 [1-8]	Tyler Payzant '21 [1-2] Michael Douglas '21 [3-8]
Wando JV	Liam Marguglio '21 [1-8]	Tyler Payzant '21 [1-2] Joseph Grech '21 [3-8]
Wando High School	Luke Emerson '19	Rosemary Delamater '20
Wando Warriors	Ben Labarca '20	Adi Edens '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA Beaufort Open

Division A

Division B

From the notes