SAISA South Points #3 Junior Varsity

HostKen Thompson Park
Date12/08/2018
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	8	16	24
2	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	18	18	36
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	27	32	59
4	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	37	24	61
5	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	28	60	88
6	Riverview High School	Varsity 1	40	60	100
7	Osceola Fundamental High School	Varsity	46	60	106
8	Sarasota High School	Sailors	64	49	113
9	Gulf Coast High School	Varsity	76	45	121
10	Eustis High School	Eustis	68	59	127
11	Riverview High School	Varsity 2	73	57	130
12	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	65	68	133
13	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	75	62	137
14	Palm Harbor University High School	Varsity	59	90	149
15	Dunedin High School	Varsity	93	58	151
16	Pine View School	Pine View Varsity	71	80	151
17	Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	81	91	172

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	1	1	1	1	1	3	8	Ethan Danielson '22 Thomas Cura '21
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	5	2	3	4	2	2	18	Spencer Brooks '20 Patrick Parker '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	2	7	5	3	9	1	27	Isa Duplessis '20 Sophia St. Romain '22
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	4	8	2	2	3	9	28	Jacob Wolfe '21 [1-2, 5-6] Louis La Fontisse '21 [3-4] Gabriel Vianna '21 [1-2, 5-6] Lucas Vianna '21 [3-4]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	3	4	6	6	8	10	37	Frederick Debiase '20 [1-4] Griffin Barron '21 [5-6] Dina Coletti '20 [1-4] Sara Lemba '21 [5-6]
Riverview High School	Varsity 1	7	11	4	10	4	4	40	Aden Anderson '21 Gus Swencki '24
Osceola Fundamental High School	Varsity	13	6	9	5	5	8	46	Colin Lawther '20 Aislyn Graves '20
Palm Harbor University High School	Varsity	10	3	8	9	14	15	59	Kyle Funderburk '20 Phoenix Nielsen '22
Sarasota High School	Sailors	9	13	10	8	11	13	64	Luke King '21 Kailin Foster '20
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	11	10	11	DNS	10	5	65	Pharaoh Tyehimba '19 Kate Prest '20
Eustis High School	Eustis	DNS	DNS	7	7	7	11	68	No Show No Show
Pine View School	Pine View Varsity	15	5	12	11	12	16	71	Dylan Lopez '27 Neel Gupta '21
Riverview High School	Varsity 2	DNS	DNS	13	12	6	6	73	Alex Liebel '23 No Show
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	8	14	15	13	13	12	75	Kenan Walsh '20 Siena Pollis '22
Gulf Coast High School	Varsity	6	9	DNS	DNS	DNS	7	76	Patrick Igoe '22 Jaedyn Procacci '20
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	12	12	14	14	15	14	81	Tucker Lowe '22 [1-2, 5-6] Alexandra Dorofeev '21 [3-4] Alexandra Dorofeev '21 [1-2, 5-6] Tucker Lowe '22 [3-4]
Dunedin High School	Varsity	14	15	16	15	16	17	93	Olivia Mikkelsen '23 Caitlyn Pagano '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	2	2	1	3	3	5	16	Heidi Hicks '21 Aspen Slavick-Gierlach '22
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	6	4	2	4	1	1	18	Sean Toro '19 Thomas Weiss '20
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	4	5	7	1	5	2	24	Coby Flannery '21 Alexandra Horton '20
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	1	7	4	9	7	4	32	Emma Asturias '20 Kelly Coyne '22
Gulf Coast High School	Varsity	5	10	3	7	2	DNS	45	No Show No Show
Sarasota High School	Sailors	11	11	14	2	8	3	49	Arianna Benson '26 Ashton Graber '22
Riverview High School	Varsity 2	12	12	11	6	6	10	57	Wyatt Kaighin '20 Omer Turkomer '20
Dunedin High School	Varsity	13	8	10	10	9	8	58	Joshua Armitage '23 Cassie Urbenz '19
Eustis High School	Eustis	9	9	8	5	14	14	59	No Show No Show
Osceola Fundamental High School	Varsity	3	1	5	15	DNS	DNS	60	Dana Aljasir '20 Corinne Graves '20
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	7	14	9	12	12	6	60	Liam De Araujo '21 [1-2, 5-6] Palmer Lykes '21 [3-4] Felipe Clavijo '21 [1-2, 5-6] Eva Gonzalez '22 [3-4]
Riverview High School	Varsity 1	8	3	6	14	DNS	11	60	Marcus Ball '19 Alexander Chevalley '22
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	10	6	OCS	11	10	7	62	Zuzanna Barska '22 Ryan Ince '21
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	16	15	12	8	4	13	68	Garrett Brooks '22 Noelle Dennis '22
Pine View School	Pine View Varsity	15	16	13	16	11	9	80	James Hechlik '22 Cooper Couden '22
Palm Harbor University High School	Varsity	17	17	15	13	13	15	90	Niah Ford '22 Kailina Suminski '23
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	14	13	16	DNS	DNS	12	91	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Dunedin High School Varsity	61	61	61	61	61	61
Eustis High School Eustis	59	59	59	59	59	59
Fort Myers High School Green Wave	65	65	65	65	65	65
Gulf Coast High School Varsity	60	60	60	60	60	60
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	58	58	58	58	58	58
Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity	29	29	29	29	29	29
Palm Harbor University High School Varsity	62	62	62	62	62	62
Pine View School Pine View Varsity	52	52	52	52	52	52
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1	63	63	63	63	63	63
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2	64	64	64	64	64	64
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	55	55	55	55	55	55
Riverview High School Varsity 1	51	51	51	51	51	51
Riverview High School Varsity 2	53	53	53	53	53	53
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	54	54	54	54	54	54
Sarasota High School Sailors	50	50	50	50	50	50
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	56	56	56	56	56	56
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	57	57	57	57	57	57

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Dunedin High School Varsity	61	61	61	61	61	61
Eustis High School Eustis	59	59	59	59	59	59
Fort Myers High School Green Wave	65	65	65	65	65	65
Gulf Coast High School Varsity	60	60	60	60	60	60
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	58	58	58	58	58	58
Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity	29	29	29	29	29	29
Palm Harbor University High School Varsity	62	62	62	62	62	62
Pine View School Pine View Varsity	52	52	52	52	52	52
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1	63	63	63	63	63	63
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2	64	64	64	64	64	64
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	55	55	55	55	55	55
Riverview High School Varsity 1	51	51	51	51	51	51
Riverview High School Varsity 2	53	53	53	53	53	53
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	54	54	54	54	54	54
Sarasota High School Sailors	50	50	50	50	50	50
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	56	56	56	56	56	56
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	57	57	57	57	57	57

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Dunedin High School	Olivia Mikkelsen '23	Caitlyn Pagano '22
Varsity	Joshua Armitage '23	Cassie Urbenz '19
Eustis High School	No Show	No Show
Eustis	No Show	No Show
Fort Myers High School	Tucker Lowe '22 [1-2, 5-6] Alexandra Dorofeev '21 [3-4]	Alexandra Dorofeev '21 [1-2, 5-6] Tucker Lowe '22 [3-4]
Green Wave	No Show	No Show
Gulf Coast High School	Patrick Igoe '22	Jaedyn Procacci '20
Varsity	No Show	No Show
H. B. Plant High School	Pharaoh Tyehimba '19	Kate Prest '20
Panthers 1	Garrett Brooks '22	Noelle Dennis '22
H. B. Plant High School	Spencer Brooks '20	Patrick Parker '21
Panthers 2	Sean Toro '19	Thomas Weiss '20
Jensen Beach High School	Frederick Debiase '20 [1-4] Griffin Barron '21 [5-6]	Dina Coletti '20 [1-4] Sara Lemba '21 [5-6]
Falcons	Coby Flannery '21	Alexandra Horton '20
Osceola Fundamental High School	Colin Lawther '20	Aislyn Graves '20
Varsity	Dana Aljasir '20	Corinne Graves '20
Palm Harbor University High School	Kyle Funderburk '20	Phoenix Nielsen '22
Varsity	Niah Ford '22	Kailina Suminski '23
Pine View School	Dylan Lopez '27	Neel Gupta '21
Pine View Varsity	James Hechlik '22	Cooper Couden '22
Ransom Everglades School	Jacob Wolfe '21 [1-2, 5-6] Louis La Fontisse '21 [3-4]	Gabriel Vianna '21 [1-2, 5-6] Lucas Vianna '21 [3-4]
Raiders	Liam De Araujo '21 [1-2, 5-6] Palmer Lykes '21 [3-4]	Felipe Clavijo '21 [1-2, 5-6] Eva Gonzalez '22 [3-4]
Riverview High School	Aden Anderson '21	Gus Swencki '24
Varsity 1	Marcus Ball '19	Alexander Chevalley '22
Riverview High School	Alex Liebel '23	No Show
Varsity 2	Wyatt Kaighin '20	Omer Turkomer '20
Sarasota High School	Luke King '21	Kailin Foster '20
Sailors	Arianna Benson '26	Ashton Graber '22
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Ethan Danielson '22	Thomas Cura '21
Chargers	Heidi Hicks '21	Aspen Slavick-Gierlach '22
South Fork High School	Kenan Walsh '20	Siena Pollis '22
SF BULLDOGS	Zuzanna Barska '22	Ryan Ince '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Isa Duplessis '20	Sophia St. Romain '22
Raiders	Emma Asturias '20	Kelly Coyne '22

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA South Points #3 Junior Varsity

Division A

Division B

From the notes