VISA BS JV/Team 2 Fleet Race Regatta

HostBishop Sullivan Cath
Date10/20/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 4	18	18
2	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	22	22
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	29	29
4	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 3	39	39
5	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 5	48	48
6	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	50 MRP	50 MRP
7	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	55	55
8	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	56	56
9	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 5	62 MRP	62 MRP
10	Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	62	62
11	Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	74	74
12	Maury High School	Commodores 1	80	80
13	Walsingham Academy	Trojans 1	85	85
14	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	91	91
15	Walsingham Academy	Trojans 2	96	96
16	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	101	101
17	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	107 MRP	107 MRP
18	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 7	107	107
19	Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	113	113
20	Catholic High School	Crusaders 4	116	116
21	Catholic High School	Crusaders 3	120	120
22	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 6	122 MRP	122 MRP
23	Maury High School	Commodores 2	122	122
24	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 4	128 MRP	128 MRP
25	Granby High School	Comets	128	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 4	4	1	2	7	1	3	18	Rebecca Schill '23 Carrie Collenberg '24
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	BKD	2	BKD	2	8	2	22	Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-6] Jack Butler '23 [1-2] Andy Beute '23 [3-4] Morgan Jenkins '24 [5] Leila Pfrang '25 [6]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	3	7	4	4	5	6	29	Maggie Campbell '22 [1-4] Robert Chase '22 [5-6] Adam Elci '22 [1-4] Clare Harbin '19 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 3	11	8	5	5	3	7	39	Lydia Sweeney '21 Blake Brown '21
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 5	6	3	18	12	4	5	48	Connor Bott '22 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Tignor '22 [3-4] Hunter Wheary '24 [1-2, 5-6] Sam Nashold '24 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	5	5	3	11	2	4	50 MRP
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	2	9	7	3	OCS	8	55	Paul Trudell '22 [1-6] Rachael Buchanan '24 [1-4] Gabby Foley '19 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	1	OCS	1	1	OCS	1	56	Henry Allgeier '23 Marin Soderberg '24
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 5	8	4	6	6	9	9	62 MRP	William Green '23 Michael Polsinelli '23
Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	14	6	12	10	7	13	62	Jake Kiggans '19 [1-6] Maria Rodriguez '22 [1-4, 6] Gustavo Morales '20 [5]
Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	17	14	8	8	10	17	74	Konrad Freischlag '20 Trevor Childers '19
Maury High School	Commodores 1	10	12	20	17	11	10	80	Lane Kilduff '25 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Mccarty '21 [3-4] Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2, 5-6] Paige Condron '22 [3-4]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 1	16	15	9	9	18	18	85	Ronan Donovan '19 [1-6] Maddy O'Connell '20 [1-4] Cameron Pellie '21 [5-6]
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	7	11	11	22	14	DNF	91	Latane Montague '22 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Bickel '22 [3-4] Cindy Wang '21 [1-2, 5-6] Peyton Smith '21 [3-4]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 2	15	19	16	21	13	12	96	Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-6] Cameron Pellie '21 [1-4] Joshua Morris '23 [5-6]
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	9	13	24	18	16	21	101	Charlie Li '20 [1-2, 5-6] Wally Yu '21 [3-4] Pete Coburn '19 [1-2] Jordan Bayliss '21 [3-4] Weichen Zhao '20 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	18	10	23	15	6	15	107 MRP
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 7	23	20	14	14	20	16	107	Kiana Beachy '24 Collin Tharp '25
Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	20	17	10	23	19	24	113	Josh Kiggans '21 Mark Ostrowski '19
Catholic High School	Crusaders 4	21	18	17	25	12	23	116	Nolan Swetland '21 Gustavo Morales '20
Catholic High School	Crusaders 3	19	23	25	19	15	19	120	Charles Schoening '19 Oliver Hudson '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 6	12	16	15	13	OCS	20	122 MRP	Mary Archer Connors '24 Maddie Murphy '25
Maury High School	Commodores 2	22	24	21	24	17	14	122	Emily Britt '23 [1-2, 5-6] Ben Powell '22 [3-4] Gabby Cloe '24 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Carson '22 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 4	24	22	13	16	22	11	128 MRP	George Minton '23 Travis Cazares '23
Granby High School	Comets	25	21	19	20	21	22	128	Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 [1-4, 6] Ben Powell '22 [5] Katherine Cason '20 [1-5] Connor Mccarty '21 [6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Catholic High School Crusaders 1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Catholic High School Crusaders 2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Catholic High School Crusaders 3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Catholic High School Crusaders 4	10	10	10	10	10	10
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	12	12	12	12	12	12
Frank W. Cox High School Falcons	11	11	11	11	11	11
Granby High School Comets	4	4	4	4	4	4
Maury High School Commodores 2	5	5	5	5	5	5
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	6	6	6	6	6	6
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	7	7	7	7	7	7
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4	8	8	8	8	8	8
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 5	9	9	9	9	9	9
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	13	13	13	13	13	13
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 4	14	14	14	14	14	14
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 6	15	15	15	15	15	15
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 7	16	16	16	16	16	16
Walsingham Academy Trojans 1	17	17	17	17	17	17
Walsingham Academy Trojans 2	18	18	18	18	18	18

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	Jake Kiggans '19 [1-6]	Maria Rodriguez '22 [1-4, 6] Gustavo Morales '20 [5]
Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	Josh Kiggans '21	Mark Ostrowski '19
Catholic High School	Crusaders 3	Charles Schoening '19	Oliver Hudson '20
Catholic High School	Crusaders 4	Nolan Swetland '21	Gustavo Morales '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	Latane Montague '22 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Bickel '22 [3-4]	Cindy Wang '21 [1-2, 5-6] Peyton Smith '21 [3-4]
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	Charlie Li '20 [1-2, 5-6] Wally Yu '21 [3-4]	Pete Coburn '19 [1-2] Jordan Bayliss '21 [3-4] Weichen Zhao '20 [5-6]
Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	Konrad Freischlag '20	Trevor Childers '19
Granby High School	Comets	Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 [1-4, 6] Ben Powell '22 [5]	Katherine Cason '20 [1-5] Connor Mccarty '21 [6]
Maury High School	Commodores 1	Lane Kilduff '25 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Mccarty '21 [3-4]	Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2, 5-6] Paige Condron '22 [3-4]
Maury High School	Commodores 2	Emily Britt '23 [1-2, 5-6] Ben Powell '22 [3-4]	Gabby Cloe '24 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Carson '22 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-6]	Jack Butler '23 [1-2] Andy Beute '23 [3-4] Morgan Jenkins '24 [5] Leila Pfrang '25 [6]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	Paul Trudell '22 [1-6]	Rachael Buchanan '24 [1-4] Gabby Foley '19 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	Henry Allgeier '23	Marin Soderberg '24
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 3	Lydia Sweeney '21	Blake Brown '21
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 4	Rebecca Schill '23	Carrie Collenberg '24
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 5	Connor Bott '22 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Tignor '22 [3-4]	Hunter Wheary '24 [1-2, 5-6] Sam Nashold '24 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	Maggie Campbell '22 [1-4] Robert Chase '22 [5-6]	Adam Elci '22 [1-4] Clare Harbin '19 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 4	George Minton '23	Travis Cazares '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 5	William Green '23	Michael Polsinelli '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 6	Mary Archer Connors '24	Maddie Murphy '25
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 7	Kiana Beachy '24	Collin Tharp '25
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 1	Ronan Donovan '19 [1-6]	Maddy O'Connell '20 [1-4] Cameron Pellie '21 [5-6]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 2	Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-6]	Cameron Pellie '21 [1-4] Joshua Morris '23 [5-6]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA BS JV/Team 2 Fleet Race Regatta

Division A

From the notes