Lake St. Clair Classic Fall Fleet Race

HostGrosse Pointe South/GPYC
Date10/05/2019
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Novi High School	Varsity	13	31	44
2	Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	32	15	47
3	Grosse Pointe South High School	Yellow (Mixed)	20	38	58
4	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue	31	33	64
5	Grosse Ile High School	GI Grey - MIXED	75	35	110
6	Lansing Catholic	LansingCatholicMixed	57	60	117
7	Detroit Country Day School	MIXED Blue	70	53	123
8	Toledo Technology Academy	Mixed	66	69	135
9	West Bloomfield High School	MIXED Green	59	83	142
10	Cranbrook Kingswood	White	81	85	166
11	Groves High School	Mixed	93	103	196

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Novi High School	Varsity	5	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	13	Michael Kirkman '21 Adam Gudeman '21
Grosse Pointe South High School	Yellow (Mixed)	1	3	1	5	2	2	2	4	20	Billy Vogel '21 Charlie Gmeiner '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue	4	2	6	4	4	5	4	2	31	Anna Carron '21 Eva Paschke '20
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	3	4	3	2	3	4	8	5	32	Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1-8] Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-2] Ryan Michalak '23 [3-8]
Lansing Catholic	LansingCatholicMixed	6	9	9	10	6	6	5	6	57	Andrew Michels '21 [1-8] Fritz Woerner '20 [1-2, 7-8] Quinn Cassidy '23 [3-6]
West Bloomfield High School	MIXED Green	7	6	8	6	9	9	7	7	59	Jake Elsen '21 Brent Armstrong '25
Toledo Technology Academy	Mixed	11	8	7	8	7	8	9	8	66	Mallory Dietsch '23 [1-4] Cordelia Vanderveer '22 [5-8] Cordelia Vanderveer '22 [1-4] Mallory Dietsch '23 [5-8]
Detroit Country Day School	MIXED Blue	8	12	5	7	8	7	12	11	70	Liam Hounsell '23 Dwight Ellis '20
Grosse Ile High School	GI Grey - MIXED	10	7	10	DNF	10	10	6	9	75	Rylan Van De Wettering '20 [1-8] Kellan Knapp '25 [1-2, 5-6] Gillian Bellard '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Cranbrook Kingswood	White	9	10	11	9	11	11	10	10	81	Roxanne Shaviro '22 [1-8] Jack Harman '23 [1-2, 7-8] Luke Lin '23 [3-4] Veena Bulusu '23 [5-6]
Groves High School	Mixed	12	11	12	11	12	12	11	12	93	Caden Meyers '22 Anna Russo '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	1	7	1	1	1	1	2	1	15	Henry Gonzalez '21 Paige Gorman '21
Novi High School	Varsity	7	5	3	4	5	2	1	4	31	Conner Kirkman '23 Ed Stone '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue	3	3	2	6	3	5	6	5	33	Christina Thomas '21 Colin Hexter '23
Grosse Ile High School	GI Grey - MIXED	2	4	6	5	4	4	4	6	35	Anna Mcaughey '24 Norton Coulibaly '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Yellow (Mixed)	4	1	11	3	BKD	BKD	7	2	38	Braden Vogel '24 Will Turner '24
Detroit Country Day School	MIXED Blue	10	8	4	7	6	6	5	7	53	Vinny Paliga '24 Anthony Dziuba '20
Lansing Catholic	LansingCatholicMixed	5	9	7	9	7	7	8	8	60	Michael Cyrul '24 [1-8] Talena Monasmith '22 [1-2, 5-6] Anna Hicks '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Toledo Technology Academy	Mixed	9	10	8	8	8	8	9	9	69	Jacob Doll '22 Anshi Pasha '22
West Bloomfield High School	MIXED Green	8	2	10	11	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	83	Walter Paliga '22 Caitlin Condon '23
Cranbrook Kingswood	White	11	11	9	10	9	9	DNF	DNF	85	Derek Ye '22 [1-6] Serena Zhang '21 [7-8] Serena Zhang '21 [1-2] Hognyi (Tony) Lu '21 [3-4] Christina Li '21 [5-8]
Groves High School	Mixed	DNF	DNS	12	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	103	Rodrigo Flores '24 Diego Kittinger '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Cranbrook Kingswood Blue	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Cranbrook Kingswood White	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Groves High School Mixed	11	11	13	13	15	15	5	5
Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed	12	12	14	14	4	4	6	6
Novi High School Varsity	13	13	15	15	5	5	7	7
Toledo Technology Academy Mixed	14	14	4	4	6	6	8	8
West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green	15	15	5	5	7	7	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Cranbrook Kingswood Blue	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Cranbrook Kingswood White	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Groves High School Mixed	12	12	14	14	4	4	6	6
Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed	13	13	15	15	5	5	7	7
Novi High School Varsity	14	14	4	4	6	6	8	8
Toledo Technology Academy Mixed	15	15	5	5	7	7	9	9
West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Cranbrook Kingswood	Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1-8]	Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-2] Ryan Michalak '23 [3-8]
Blue	Henry Gonzalez '21	Paige Gorman '21
Cranbrook Kingswood	Roxanne Shaviro '22 [1-8]	Jack Harman '23 [1-2, 7-8] Luke Lin '23 [3-4] Veena Bulusu '23 [5-6]
White	Derek Ye '22 [1-6] Serena Zhang '21 [7-8]	Serena Zhang '21 [1-2] Hognyi (Tony) Lu '21 [3-4] Christina Li '21 [5-8]
Detroit Country Day School	Liam Hounsell '23	Dwight Ellis '20
MIXED Blue	Vinny Paliga '24	Anthony Dziuba '20
Grosse Ile High School	Rylan Van De Wettering '20 [1-8]	Kellan Knapp '25 [1-2, 5-6] Gillian Bellard '25 [3-4, 7-8]
GI Grey - MIXED	Anna Mcaughey '24	Norton Coulibaly '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Anna Carron '21	Eva Paschke '20
Blue	Christina Thomas '21	Colin Hexter '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Billy Vogel '21	Charlie Gmeiner '23
Yellow (Mixed)	Braden Vogel '24	Will Turner '24
Groves High School	Caden Meyers '22	Anna Russo '20
Mixed	Rodrigo Flores '24	Diego Kittinger '23
Lansing Catholic	Andrew Michels '21 [1-8]	Fritz Woerner '20 [1-2, 7-8] Quinn Cassidy '23 [3-6]
LansingCatholicMixed	Michael Cyrul '24 [1-8]	Talena Monasmith '22 [1-2, 5-6] Anna Hicks '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Novi High School	Michael Kirkman '21	Adam Gudeman '21
Varsity	Conner Kirkman '23	Ed Stone '23
Toledo Technology Academy	Mallory Dietsch '23 [1-4] Cordelia Vanderveer '22 [5-8]	Cordelia Vanderveer '22 [1-4] Mallory Dietsch '23 [5-8]
Mixed	Jacob Doll '22	Anshi Pasha '22
West Bloomfield High School	Jake Elsen '21	Brent Armstrong '25
MIXED Green	Walter Paliga '22	Caitlin Condon '23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

Lake St. Clair Classic Fall Fleet Race

Division A

Division B

From the notes