SAISA South Points #2 JV

HostUSSCMC
Date10/19/2019
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 1	4	9	13
2	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 1	13	7	20
3	Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	21	28	49
4	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 2	21	30	51
5	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	26	28	54
6	Good Hope County Day School	Panthers	24	33	57
7	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	41	23	64
8	Sarasota High School	Sailors	49	16	65
9	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 2	40	25	65
10	Martin County High School	Tigers	23	47	70
11	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	50	40	90
12	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	49	42	91
13	Jaguar	Jaguar	36	65	101
14	Eustis 1	Eustis 1	46	56	102
15	Eustis 2	Eustis 2	46	58	104
16	Dunedin High School	Varsity	65	55	120
17	MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	62	67	129
18	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	76	62	138

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 1	1	1	1	1	4	Jackson Mcaliley '23 Gabriel Vianna '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 1	2	4	3	4	13	Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 Aidan Orr '23
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 2	6	5	7	3	21	Eva Gonzalez '22 Aidan Murphy '21
Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	15	2	2	2	21	Sydney Ohs '23 Shae Riley '23
Martin County High School	Tigers	3	6	4	10	23	Audrey Foley '24 Adam Lee '24
Good Hope County Day School	Panthers	11	3	5	5	24	Milo Miller '23 Scott Vercher '22
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	7	7	6	6	26	Cole Degner '21 Andrew Bultman '23
Jaguar	Jaguar	9	9	11	7	36
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 2	13	8	8	11	40	Michael Morley '22 Santiago Rodriguez '20
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	10	10	9	12	41	Ian Iles-Lee '23 Elizabeth Anderson '22
Eustis 2	Eustis 2	12	15	10	9	46
Eustis 1	Eustis 1	14	12	12	8	46
Sarasota High School	Sailors	4	16	16	13	49	Gabe Mirman '23 Byron Mccobb '23
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	5	11	DNF	14	49	Ava Edinger '22 [1-3] Joseph Toro '22 [4] Blake Wilson '20 [1-3]
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	8	13	13	16	50	Campbell Taylor '22 [1-2] Ayla Weisberg '22 [3-4] Ascher Zimmerman '23 [1-2]
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	16	14	15	17	62	Esbeydy Dumas '20 Colin Flink '20
Dunedin High School	Varsity	DNF	17	14	15	65	Tony Perez '23 [1-2] No Show [3-4] Caitlyn Pagano '22 [1-2]
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	76	Giovanna Garcia '22 Abigail Sharp '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 1	2	2	1	2	7	Jack Redmond '22 Kelly Coyne '22
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 1	3	1	4	1	9	Olivia Drulard '23 Lucas Vianna '21
Sarasota High School	Sailors	7	4	2	3	16	Luke King '21 Ashton Graber '22
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	8	5	6	4	23	Mathew Pittman '22 Johnathan Pittman '22
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 2	1	10	8	6	25	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22 Marianne Cook '23
Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	4	8	11	5	28	Sydney Ohs '23 Shae Riley '23
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	6	3	12	7	28	William Kulas '24 Elizabeth Wire '24
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 2	10	6	3	11	30	David Dubovy '22 Boris Bialer '22
Good Hope County Day School	Panthers	9	9	7	8	33	Ariana Schwarts '23 Elyssa Franklin '22
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	13	13	5	9	40	Zander Pestrichelli '22 Charlotte Sample '23
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	11	7	9	15	42	Elliot Francola '23 Patrick Parker '21
Martin County High School	Tigers	12	11	10	14	47	Stevan Weiss '22 Diego Cruz '23
Dunedin High School	Varsity	17	12	13	13	55	Johnathan Whitcomb '23 Alexander Schwimmer '23
Eustis 1	Eustis 1	15	14	15	12	56
Eustis 2	Eustis 2	14	15	DNF	10	58
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	5	DNF	DNF	DNS	62	No Show No Show
Jaguar	Jaguar	16	DNF	14	16	65
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	18	16	16	17	67	John Lewenec '22 Gabriel Yrjola '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Jaguar Jaguar	38	38	38	38
Dunedin High School Varsity	40	40	40	40
Eustis 1 Eustis 1	34	34	34	34
Eustis 2 Eustis 2	33	33	33	33
Good Hope County Day School Panthers	47	47	47	47
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	43	43	43	43
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	50	50	50	50
Martin County High School Tigers	48	48	48	48
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	49	49	49	49
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	37	37	37	37
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1	44	44	44	44
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2	45	45	45	45
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1	42	42	42	42
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2	41	41	41	41
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1	35	35	35	35
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2	36	36	36	36
Sarasota High School Sailors	46	46	46	46
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach	39	39	39	39

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Jaguar Jaguar	38	38	38	38
Dunedin High School Varsity	40	40	40	40
Eustis 1 Eustis 1	34	34	34	34
Eustis 2 Eustis 2	33	33	33	33
Good Hope County Day School Panthers	47	47	47	47
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	43	43	43	43
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	50	50	50	50
Martin County High School Tigers	48	48	48	48
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	49	49	49	49
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	37	37	37	37
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1	44	44	44	44
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2	45	45	45	45
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1	42	42	42	42
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2	41	41	41	41
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1	35	35	35	35
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2	36	36	36	36
Sarasota High School Sailors	46	46	46	46
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach	39	39	39	39

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Dunedin High School	Tony Perez '23 [1-2] No Show [3-4]	Caitlyn Pagano '22 [1-2]
Varsity	Johnathan Whitcomb '23	Alexander Schwimmer '23
Good Hope County Day School	Milo Miller '23	Scott Vercher '22
Panthers	Ariana Schwarts '23	Elyssa Franklin '22
Gulliver Preparatory School	Giovanna Garcia '22	Abigail Sharp '22
Raiders	No Show	No Show
H. B. Plant High School	Ian Iles-Lee '23	Elizabeth Anderson '22
Panthers 1	Mathew Pittman '22	Johnathan Pittman '22
H. B. Plant High School	Ava Edinger '22 [1-3] Joseph Toro '22 [4]	Blake Wilson '20 [1-3]
Panthers 2	Elliot Francola '23	Patrick Parker '21
Jensen Beach High School	Cole Degner '21	Andrew Bultman '23
Falcons	William Kulas '24	Elizabeth Wire '24
MOA/Westwood High School	Esbeydy Dumas '20	Colin Flink '20
Panthers	John Lewenec '22	Gabriel Yrjola '22
Martin County High School	Audrey Foley '24	Adam Lee '24
Tigers	Stevan Weiss '22	Diego Cruz '23
Oxbridge Academy	Campbell Taylor '22 [1-2] Ayla Weisberg '22 [3-4]	Ascher Zimmerman '23 [1-2]
ThunderWolves	Zander Pestrichelli '22	Charlotte Sample '23
Ransom Everglades School	Jackson Mcaliley '23	Gabriel Vianna '21
Raiders 1	Olivia Drulard '23	Lucas Vianna '21
Ransom Everglades School	Eva Gonzalez '22	Aidan Murphy '21
Raiders 2	David Dubovy '22	Boris Bialer '22
Sarasota High School	Gabe Mirman '23	Byron Mccobb '23
Sailors	Luke King '21	Ashton Graber '22
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23	Aidan Orr '23
Raiders 1	Jack Redmond '22	Kelly Coyne '22
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Michael Morley '22	Santiago Rodriguez '20
Raiders 2	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22	Marianne Cook '23
Vero Beach High School	Sydney Ohs '23	Shae Riley '23
Vero Beach	Sydney Ohs '23	Shae Riley '23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA South Points #2 JV

Division A

Division B

From the notes