| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Jones College Prep | Eagles | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 3–2 |
| 5 |  |
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | 3–2 |
| 6 |  |
Lane Tech College Prep | Varsity | 2–2 |
| 7 |  |
Unregistered-MISSA | Unregistered 2 | 2–3 |
| 8 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | 1–4 |
| 9 |  |
Lyons Township High School | Lions | 0–4 |
| 9 | |
Unregistered-MISSA | Unregistered 1 | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,988 team race matches sailed before 2020-10-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 5 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.362 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack | 1 | 4.16 school −0.18 | Peter Barnard / Daniel Sandoval Jack Baldwin / Monica Anderson 1.50 Luke Goldman / Olivia Schmitt | 79% | 2–1 (67%) | −0.4 |
| 3 | Jones College Prep Eagles | 5 | 2.12 | Emmett Nevel / Betsy Finley Jake Weinstein / Maddie Fitzgerald Molly Sheridan / Michael Clancy | 18% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.2 |
| 5 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons | 2 | 3.62 | Benny Wild / Adler Wright 1.23 Philip Lengyel / Benjamin Luu 1.07 Elizabeth Frost / Bryan Pan | 62% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 6 | Lane Tech College Prep Varsity | 3 | 1.38 school +0.23 | Lauren Mellinger / Marie Peters Sydney Mandell / Oscar Gilroy Audra Spokas-Jaros / Charles Behm | 40% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.2 |
| 9 | Lyons Township High School Lions | 4 | 0.65 | Gavin Dempsey / Aidan Walls Keg Avakian / Ali Jensen Michael Avakian / Lily Drobny | 21% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons | 3.62 | 6.62 | 2–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 33% |
| 6 | Lane Tech College Prep Varsity | 1.38 | 2.08 | 1–1 | 0.8 | +0.69 | 0.1 | 70% |
| 2 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack | 4.16 | 3.24 | 2–1 | 2.4 | −0.92 | 0.2 | 90% |
| 9 | Lyons Township High School Lions | 0.65 | -2.35 | 0–2 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 3 | Jones College Prep Eagles | 2.12 | -0.88 | 0–1 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Goldman | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 0.67 | -0.25 | 2–1 | 2.4 | −0.92 | 0.2 | 90% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lane Tech College Prep Varsity | Lyons Township High School Lions | 64% | |
| 1 | 5 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack | Jones College Prep Eagles | 82% | |
| 1 | 12 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons | Lane Tech College Prep Varsity | 84% | |
| 1 | 13 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack | Lyons Township High School Lions | 94% | |
| 1 | 21 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack | 39% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Romans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Unregistered 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Unregistered 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Maroons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Unregistered 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Unregistered 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Romans | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Maroons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Unregistered 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Unregistered 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Unregistered 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Unregistered 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Maroons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Unregistered 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Romans | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | Jack Baldwin '22 Luke Goldman '21 Peter Barnard '23 |
Monica Anderson '23 Olivia Schmitt '22 Daniel Sandoval '22 |
|
Jones College Prep | Eagles | Emmett Nevel '21 Jake Weinstein '23 Molly Sheridan '21 |
Betsy Finley '23 Maddie Fitzgerald '22 Michael Clancy '22 |
|
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | Benny Wild '22 Elizabeth Frost '23 Philip Lengyel '21 |
Adler Wright '22 Bryan Pan '23 Benjamin Luu '23 |
|
Lane Tech College Prep | Varsity | Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 Lauren Mellinger '21 Sydney Mandell '22 |
Charles Behm '21 Marie Peters '22 Oscar Gilroy '23 |
|
Lyons Township High School | Lions | Gavin Dempsey '22 Keg Avakian '22 Michael Avakian '23 |
Aidan Walls '21 Ali Jensen '22 Lily Drobny '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
