NJISA 2021 Fall Fleet Championship

HostTRYC & BBYRA
Date10/03/2021
TypeLeague Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	22	24	46
2	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	14	35	49
3	Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	47	8	55
4	Biotechnology High School	Nerds	46	22	68
5	Ranney School	Panthers	33	40	73
6	Conestoga High School	Pioneers	42	35	77
7	Delbarton School	Green Wave	24	58	82
8	Toms River North	Mariners	26	59	85
9	Southern Regional High School	Rams	42	45	87
10	Chatham High School	Cougars	51	39	90
11	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	61	34	95
12	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	60	68	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	1	2	3	2	5	1	14	James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	6	3	1	1	4	7	22	Ryan Ehnot '22 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Delbarton School	Green Wave	3	1	4	7	3	6	24	James O'Gwen '23 Julien Dietrich '24
Toms River North	Mariners	2	4	8	3	7	2	26	Everett Botwinick '22 Lindsay Walsh '23
Ranney School	Panthers	10	9	5	4	2	3	33	Alexa Whitman '22 Ashley Abboud '22
Conestoga High School	Pioneers	5	6	6	6	11	8	42	Connor Demming '23 Dermott Breault '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams	9	7	7	5	9	5	42	Turner Ryon '25 [1-6] Belle Placa '25 [1-4] Natalie Shaw '23 [5-6]
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	4	5	12	9	12	4	46	Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	7	8	2	8	10	12	47	Zylinski Luke '22 [1-6] Tessa Buckowski '24 [1-2, 5-6] Aly Breckenridge '25 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars	8	12	9	12	1	9	51	Paige Lubrano '22 Allison Baun '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	11	10	11	11	6	11	60	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-2] Allison Beisel '24 [3-6] Alex Dacosta '24 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4] Sydney Gusmer '22 [5-6]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	12	11	10	10	8	10	61	Lauren Murray '24 Dara Greengrass '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	2	1	1	1	2	1	8	Richard Pokorny '25 Morgan Auth '23
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	3	2	3	4	4	6	22	Gabby Fontana '23 Aiden Welch '24
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	1	4	8	5	1	5	24	Colin Guerrera '22 Nicholas Cunha '23
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	5	3	2	8	5	11	34	Lilly Shanker '22 Sarah Kane '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	4	10	5	3	9	4	35	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Nora Ciak '23
Conestoga High School	Pioneers	8	8	7	2	3	7	35	Bella Cremer '24 Jp Small '22
Chatham High School	Cougars	6	6	6	9	10	2	39	Jamie Lynch '23 [1-6] Jonathan Field '22 [1-4] Keira Press '23 [5-6]
Ranney School	Panthers	7	5	11	6	8	3	40	Grace Bray '23 [1-4] Jack Whitman '23 [5-6] Alexandria Forrest '22 [1-4] Tomas Mora '23 [5-6]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	11	7	4	7	7	9	45	Kennedy Laureigh '22 [1-2, 4] Belle Placa '25 [3, 5-6] Natalie Shaw '23 [1-2] Kennedy Laureigh '22 [3, 5-6] Belle Placa '25 [4]
Delbarton School	Green Wave	12	RDG	9	11	6	10	58	Jack Tonzola '25 Johnny Lang '23
Toms River North	Mariners	9	9	12	10	11	8	59	Iliana Vasslides '23 Stephanie Maulshagen '23
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	12	10	12	12	12	68	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4] Margaret Burns '27 [5-6] Sophia Galiano '26 [1-2] Mackenzie Boles '27 [3-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Biotechnology High School Nerds	12	12	12	12	12	12
Chatham High School Cougars	9	9	9	9	9	9
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	1	1	1	1	1	1
Conestoga High School Pioneers	4	4	4	4	4	4
Delbarton School Green Wave	7	7	7	7	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	6	6	6	6
Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls	14	14	14	14	14	14
Ranney School Panthers	8	8	8	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10	10	10
Summit High School Hilltoppers	2	2	2	2	2	2
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	11	11	11	11
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15	15	15	15	15

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Biotechnology High School Nerds	12	12	12	12	12	12
Chatham High School Cougars	9	9	9	9	9	9
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	1	1	1	1	1	1
Conestoga High School Pioneers	4	4	4	4	4	4
Delbarton School Green Wave	7	7	7	7	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	6	6	6	6
Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls	14	14	14	14	14	14
Ranney School Panthers	8	8	8	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10	10	10
Summit High School Hilltoppers	2	2	2	2	2	2
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	11	11	11	11
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15	15	15	15	15

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Biotechnology High School	Benson Chiles '22	Ronan Downie '22
Nerds	Gabby Fontana '23	Aiden Welch '24
Chatham High School	Paige Lubrano '22	Allison Baun '22
Cougars	Jamie Lynch '23 [1-6]	Jonathan Field '22 [1-4] Keira Press '23 [5-6]
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Mitchell Hnatt '24
Colts	Colin Guerrera '22	Nicholas Cunha '23
Conestoga High School	Connor Demming '23	Dermott Breault '22
Pioneers	Bella Cremer '24	Jp Small '22
Delbarton School	James O'Gwen '23	Julien Dietrich '24
Green Wave	Jack Tonzola '25	Johnny Lang '23
Donovan Catholic High School	James Kopack '24	Caroline Felser '24
Griffins	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Nora Ciak '23
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Zylinski Luke '22 [1-6]	Tessa Buckowski '24 [1-2, 5-6] Aly Breckenridge '25 [3-4]
Garnett Gulls	Richard Pokorny '25	Morgan Auth '23
Ranney School	Alexa Whitman '22	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers	Grace Bray '23 [1-4] Jack Whitman '23 [5-6]	Alexandria Forrest '22 [1-4] Tomas Mora '23 [5-6]
Southern Regional High School	Turner Ryon '25 [1-6]	Belle Placa '25 [1-4] Natalie Shaw '23 [5-6]
Rams	Kennedy Laureigh '22 [1-2, 4] Belle Placa '25 [3, 5-6]	Natalie Shaw '23 [1-2] Kennedy Laureigh '22 [3, 5-6] Belle Placa '25 [4]
Summit High School	Lauren Murray '24	Dara Greengrass '24
Hilltoppers	Lilly Shanker '22	Sarah Kane '22
Toms River North	Everett Botwinick '22	Lindsay Walsh '23
Mariners	Iliana Vasslides '23	Stephanie Maulshagen '23
Trinity Hall	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-2] Allison Beisel '24 [3-6]	Alex Dacosta '24 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4] Sydney Gusmer '22 [5-6]
Monarchs	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4] Margaret Burns '27 [5-6]	Sophia Galiano '26 [1-2] Mackenzie Boles '27 [3-6]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2021 Fall Fleet Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes