North Points #3 (VARISTY ONLY)

HostLake Lanier Sailing Club
Date11/13/2021
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	8	9	17
2	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	17	11	28
3	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	13	20	33
4	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	27	15	42
5	Hilton Head Preparatory School	Varsity	30	26	56
6	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	36	31	67
7	Lucy Beckham High School	Beckham Bengals one	30	47	77
8	Glynn Academy	Varsity	47	40	87
9	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	54	33	87
10	Atlanta Classical Academy	Cavaliers	35	54	89
11	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	54	56	110
12	Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	45	78	123
13	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	73	53	126
14	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	70	60	130
15	Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw Warriors	65	75	140

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	2	1	2	1	2	8	Bridget Monahan '22 [1-5] Tia Schoening '22 [1-2] Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-5]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	5	4	1	2	1	13	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-5] Polk Baggett '22 [1-2] Ritvik Maridi '25 [3-5]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	1	5	3	3	5	17	Carson Shaw '22 Bryson Eaton '24
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	7	2	7	8	3	27	Tavia Smith '23 [1-5] Jane Wright '24 [1-2, 5] Wesley Murray '24 [3-4]
Lucy Beckham High School	Beckham Bengals one	4	9	4	6	7	30	Walker Hussey '23 Addy Fisher '23
Hilton Head Preparatory School	Varsity	6	7	6	5	6	30	William Tebrake '23 Aiden Darr '25
Atlanta Classical Academy	Cavaliers	3	6	10	7	9	35	Ben Woods '22 [1-5] Victoria Sweeney '25 [1-2] Madison Snider '23 [3-4] Josie Williams '24 [5]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	9	10	5	4	8	36	Scott Busey '23 [1-5] Tom Commander '23 [1-2] Julia Dinzelbacher '25 [3-5]
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	OCS	3	12	10	4	45	Alex Bagnoni '23 Diego Pryor '24
Glynn Academy	Varsity	8	11	8	9	11	47	Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [1-2, 5] Ethan Waters '22 [3-4] Ethan Waters '22 [1-2, 5] Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [3-4]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	10	8	11	13	12	54	Julia Boutet '23 Sarina Schmoyer '23
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	11	12	9	12	10	54	Graham Cosby '22 Edward Thompson '22
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw Warriors	12	13	13	11	DSQ	65	Nash Allison '24 [1-5] Stevie Paris '25 [1-2] Sydney Allison '22 [3-5]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	13	14	15	15	13	70	Ryan Pannenbacker '22 [1-5] Cole Campbell '23 [1-4] Luke Pannenbacker '25 [5]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	DNF	15	14	14	14	73	Joseph Moore '23 Jonah Daniels '25

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	1	1	1	1	5	9	Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [1-5] Alex Patangan '23 [1-2, 5] Davis Mclauchlin '24 [3-4]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	2	2	2	4	1	11	Mason Baird '22 Felix Hagar '25
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	4	3	3	3	2	15	Ben Usher '23 [1-5] Olivia Burdette '25 [1-2, 5] Cate Skiles '25 [3-4]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	5	5	4	2	4	20	Polk Baggett '22 Ray Mcdonald '25
Hilton Head Preparatory School	Varsity	3	4	6	5	8	26	Escher Lucier '23 [1-5] Dominic Pepitone '25 [1-4] Lila Ferne '25 [5]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	7	7	5	6	6	31	Mcrae Busey '25 Rohan Jones '24
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	8	8	7	7	3	33	Fordham Smith '23 [1-2] Mills Egleston '24 [3-5] Lisee Skoglund '23 [1-2] Owen Rogers '23 [3-5]
Glynn Academy	Varsity	11	6	8	8	7	40	Sebastian Helgesen '23 [1-3, 5] Collin Register '23 [4] Collin Register '23 [1-3, 5] Sebastian Helgesen '23 [4]
Lucy Beckham High School	Beckham Bengals one	6	9	12	11	9	47	Maggie Hardie '23 [1-5] Anthony Lattanzio '23 [1-2, 5] Anna Pitcavage '25 [3-4]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	13	10	9	9	12	53	Mason Haborak '25 [1-5] Anthony Moore '25 [1-4] Nate Haborak '23 [5]
Atlanta Classical Academy	Cavaliers	12	11	10	10	11	54	Victoria Sweeney '25 [1-2, 5] Lauren Woods '24 [3-4] Lauren Woods '24 [1-2] Ava Wurm '22 [3-4] Madison Snider '23 [5]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	10	12	11	13	10	56	Alessia Decamp '22 [1-5] Chase Dixon '23 [1-4] Sarina Schmoyer '23 [5]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	9	13	13	12	13	60	Caroline Mautner '24 [1-5] Sean Gorstayn '25 [1-4] Chase Dixon '23 [5]
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw Warriors	15	14	14	DNF	DNF	75	Stevie Paris '25 [1-5] Collin Nalley '25 [1-4] Sydney Allison '22 [5]
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	14	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	78	Emily Sternkopf '24 Grace Christman '24

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	1	1	1	1	1
Atlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers	2	2	2	2	2
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	8541	8541	8541	8541	8541
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	4	4	4	4	4
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	8537	8537	8537	8537	8537
Glynn Academy Varsity	5	5	5	5	5
Hilton Head Preparatory School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6
James Island Charter High School Varsity	7	7	7	7	7
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	8	8	8	8	8
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	9	9	9
Lucy Beckham High School Beckham Bengals one	8539	8539	8539	8539	8539
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	11	11	11	11	11
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	12	12	12	12	12
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	13	13	13	13	13
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors	8528	8528	8528	8528	8528

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	1	1	1	1	1
Atlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers	2	2	2	2	2
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	8541	8541	8541	8541	8541
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	4	4	4	4	4
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	8537	8537	8537	8537	8537
Glynn Academy Varsity	5	5	5	5	5
Hilton Head Preparatory School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6
James Island Charter High School Varsity	7	7	7	7	7
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	8	8	8	8	8
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	9	9	9
Lucy Beckham High School Beckham Bengals one	8539	8539	8539	8539	8539
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	11	11	11	11	11
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	12	12	12	12	12
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	13	13	13	13	13
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors	8528	8528	8528	8528	8528

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Aquinas High School	Alex Bagnoni '23	Diego Pryor '24
Fighting Irish	Emily Sternkopf '24	Grace Christman '24
Atlanta Classical Academy	Ben Woods '22 [1-5]	Victoria Sweeney '25 [1-2] Madison Snider '23 [3-4] Josie Williams '24 [5]
Cavaliers	Victoria Sweeney '25 [1-2, 5] Lauren Woods '24 [3-4]	Lauren Woods '24 [1-2] Ava Wurm '22 [3-4] Madison Snider '23 [5]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bridget Monahan '22 [1-5]	Tia Schoening '22 [1-2] Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-5]
Bishop Kenny	Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [1-5]	Alex Patangan '23 [1-2, 5] Davis Mclauchlin '24 [3-4]
Cape Fear Academy	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-5]	Polk Baggett '22 [1-2] Ritvik Maridi '25 [3-5]
CFA Varsity	Polk Baggett '22	Ray Mcdonald '25
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Scott Busey '23 [1-5]	Tom Commander '23 [1-2] Julia Dinzelbacher '25 [3-5]
ESJ	Mcrae Busey '25	Rohan Jones '24
Glynn Academy	Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [1-2, 5] Ethan Waters '22 [3-4]	Ethan Waters '22 [1-2, 5] Liam Kolkmeyer '23 [3-4]
Varsity	Sebastian Helgesen '23 [1-3, 5] Collin Register '23 [4]	Collin Register '23 [1-3, 5] Sebastian Helgesen '23 [4]
Hilton Head Preparatory School	William Tebrake '23	Aiden Darr '25
Varsity	Escher Lucier '23 [1-5]	Dominic Pepitone '25 [1-4] Lila Ferne '25 [5]
James Island Charter High School	Carson Shaw '22	Bryson Eaton '24
Varsity	Mason Baird '22	Felix Hagar '25
John T. Hoggard High School	Tavia Smith '23 [1-5]	Jane Wright '24 [1-2, 5] Wesley Murray '24 [3-4]
Vikings Varsity	Ben Usher '23 [1-5]	Olivia Burdette '25 [1-2, 5] Cate Skiles '25 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Ryan Pannenbacker '22 [1-5]	Cole Campbell '23 [1-4] Luke Pannenbacker '25 [5]
Wildcats	Caroline Mautner '24 [1-5]	Sean Gorstayn '25 [1-4] Chase Dixon '23 [5]
Lucy Beckham High School	Walker Hussey '23	Addy Fisher '23
Beckham Bengals one	Maggie Hardie '23 [1-5]	Anthony Lattanzio '23 [1-2, 5] Anna Pitcavage '25 [3-4]
Pine Lake Prep	Julia Boutet '23	Sarina Schmoyer '23
Varsity	Alessia Decamp '22 [1-5]	Chase Dixon '23 [1-4] Sarina Schmoyer '23 [5]
Porter-Gaud School	Graham Cosby '22	Edward Thompson '22
Varsity	Fordham Smith '23 [1-2] Mills Egleston '24 [3-5]	Lisee Skoglund '23 [1-2] Owen Rogers '23 [3-5]
Richmond Hill High School	Joseph Moore '23	Jonah Daniels '25
Varsity	Mason Haborak '25 [1-5]	Anthony Moore '25 [1-4] Nate Haborak '23 [5]
Waccamaw High School	Nash Allison '24 [1-5]	Stevie Paris '25 [1-2] Sydney Allison '22 [3-5]
Waccamaw Warriors	Stevie Paris '25 [1-5]	Collin Nalley '25 [1-4] Sydney Allison '22 [5]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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North Points #3 (VARISTY ONLY)

Division A

Division B

From the notes