| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS | Julian Dahiya '24 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 36 |
 |
Donovan Catholic High School | James Kopack '24 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 58 |
 |
Hampton Roads Academy | Leila Pfrang '25 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 65 |
 |
Point Pleasant Beach High School | Richard Pokorny '25 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 75 |
 |
Grafton High School | Blake Goodwin '23 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 19 | OCS | 1 | 79 |
 |
Norfolk Academy | Henry Allgeier '23 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 81 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Rebecca Schill '23 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 81 |
 |
North Hunterdon High School | Connor Mchugh '24 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 3 | OCS | 1 | 11 | 7 | 82 |
 |
Summit High School | Pilar Cundey '23 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 8 | 83 |
 |
The Pingry School | Max Naseef '24 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 86 |
 |
Christchurch School | Elliott Lipp '26 | 3 | OCS | 4 | 16 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 88 |
|
Christchurch School | Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 88 |
 |
Conestoga High School | Connor Demming '23 | 1 | OCS | 21 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | DNS | 100 |
 |
Gonzaga College High School | Oliver Schiff '31 | 11 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 113 |
|
Conestoga High School | Bella Cremer '24 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 23 | 11 | 117 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Pierce Brindley '24 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 117 |
 |
Severn School | Jed Lory '23 | 14 | 8 | 17 | 10 | 15 | OCS | 22 | 15 | 132 |
 |
Dwight School | Natalie Fear '24 | 22 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 133 |
|
Point Pleasant Beach High School | Morgan Zylinski '25 | 23 | 16 | 26 | 8 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 136 |
 |
Gunston | Tommy Mcgeady '25 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 26 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 23 | 142 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Kevin Brooksbank '23 | 9 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 144 |
 |
Malvern Preparatory School | Luca Webb '24 | OCS | OCS | 22 | 21 | 10 | OCS | 13 | 9 | 168 |
 |
Poquoson High School | Olivia Gilmore '23 | 16 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 18 | 24 | 20 | 170 |
 |
Chaminade High School | Robert Finora '23 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 26 | OCS | 19 | 22 | 170 |
 |
Toms River South | Ella Demand '24 | 26 | OCS | 10 | 25 | 27 | OCS | 25 | 12 | 187 |
 |
Ranney School | Lewis Forrest '25 | OCS | 11 | 27 | 24 | 21 | OCS | 20 | OCS | 196 |
 |
Key School | Trey Burman '25 | 24 | OCS | 28 | 28 | 23 | 10 | 27 | 26 | 197 |
 |
Delbarton School | Jack Tonzola '25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 201 |
|
Ranney School | Anthony Abboud '25 | 28 | 19 | 29 | 30 | 28 | OCS | 28 | 25 | 218 |
|
Point Pleasant Beach High School | Hudson Depaul '26 | 27 | OCS | DNF | 29 | 29 | OCS | OCS | OCS | 240 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Dahiya '24 | Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS | 8/8 | 2.14 | 4.05 | +1.91 | 85th → 99th | 7.7 | <1% | 4.5 / 12.7 |
| 2 | James Kopack '24 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 | 8/8 | 2.53 | 3.19 | +0.66 | 92nd → 99th | 1.2 | 18% | 7.2 / 11.2 |
| 3 | Leila Pfrang '25 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | 8/8 | 2.28 | 2.97 | +0.69 | 88th → 98th | 1.3 | 14% | 8.1 / 12.2 |
| 4 | Richard Pokorny '25 | Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 1 | 8/8 | 2.22 | 2.68 | +0.46 | 87th → 95th | 0.6 | 23% | 9.4 / 12.3 |
| 5 | Blake Goodwin '23 | Grafton High School | 8/8 | 1.58 | 3.10 | +1.52 | 75th → 99th | 4.7 | 7% | 9.9 / 15.2 |
| 6 | Henry Allgeier '23 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 8/8 | 2.93 | 2.34 | −0.58 | 98th → 89th | 1.2 | 58% | 10.1 / 9.8 |
| 6 | Rebecca Schill '23 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 8/8 | 2.35 | 2.47 | +0.12 | 89th → 92nd | 0.0 | 36% | 10.1 / 12.0 |
| 8 | Connor Mchugh '24 | North Hunterdon High School | 8/8 | 2.49 | 3.18 | +0.69 | 92nd → 99th | 1.1 | 42% | 10.2 / 11.3 |
| 9 | Pilar Cundey '23 | Summit High School | 8/8 | 1.81 | 2.28 | +0.46 | 80th → 88th | 0.6 | 23% | 10.4 / 14.2 |
| 10 | Max Naseef '24 | The Pingry School | 8/8 | 1.93 | 2.18 | +0.26 | 82nd → 86th | 0.2 | 27% | 10.8 / 13.9 |
| 11 | Alders Kulynych-Irvin '25 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 8/8 | 2.00 | 2.35 | +0.35 | 83rd → 89th | 0.4 | 27% | 11.0 / 13.4 |
| 11 | Elliott Lipp '26 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 8/8 | 2.49 | 2.58 | +0.08 | 92nd → 93rd | 0.0 | 49% | 11.0 / 11.4 |
| 13 | Connor Demming '23 | Conestoga High School Pioneers 1 | 8/8 | 2.60 | 3.04 | +0.45 | 93rd → 99th | 0.4 | 66% | 12.5 / 11.0 |
| 14 | Oliver Schiff '31 | Gonzaga College High School | 8/8 | 1.40u | 1.85 | +0.44 | 70th → 81st | 0.6 | 38% | 14.1 / 15.9 |
| 15 | Bella Cremer '24 | Conestoga High School Pioneers 2 | 8/8 | 1.12 | 1.55 | +0.43 | 61st → 74th | 0.5 | 32% | 14.6 / 17.0 |
| 15 | Pierce Brindley '24 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 | 8/8 | 2.30 | 1.38 | −0.92 | 88th → 69th | 3.2 | 76% | 14.6 / 12.1 |
| 17 | Jed Lory '23 | Severn School | 8/8 | 1.60 | 1.81 | +0.20 | 75th → 80th | 0.1 | 63% | 16.5 / 15.0 |
| 18 | Natalie Fear '24 | Dwight School | 8/8 | 1.55 | 1.45 | −0.11 | 74th → 71st | 0.0 | 61% | 16.6 / 15.2 |
| 19 | Morgan Zylinski '25 | Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 2 | 8/8 | 0.31 | 0.95 | +0.63 | 31st → 56th | 1.1 | 23% | 17.0 / 20.3 |
| 20 | Tommy Mcgeady '25 | Gunston | 8/8 | 1.07 | 1.13 | +0.06 | 60th → 61st | 0.0 | 53% | 17.8 / 17.4 |
| 21 | Kevin Brooksbank '23 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 | 8/8 | 1.73 | 0.93 | −0.80 | 79th → 56th | 2.1 | 78% | 18.0 / 14.5 |
| 22 | Luca Webb '24 | Malvern Preparatory School | 8/8 | 1.30u | 1.75 | +0.46 | 67th → 79th | 0.4 | 82% | 21.0 / 16.6 |
| 23 | Olivia Gilmore '23 | Poquoson High School | 8/8 | 1.07 | 0.70 | −0.37 | 60th → 45th | 0.5 | 79% | 21.2 / 17.4 |
| 23 | Robert Finora '23 | Chaminade High School | 8/8 | 1.11 | 0.83 | −0.29 | 61st → 51st | 0.3 | 86% | 21.2 / 17.3 |
| 25 | Ella Demand '24 | Toms River South | 8/8 | 1.01 | 0.09 | −0.93 | 58th → 24th | 2.4 | 90% | 23.4 / 17.6 |
| 26 | Lewis Forrest '25 | Ranney School Panthers 2 | 8/8 | 0.67 | 0.60 | −0.07 | 45th → 42nd | 0.0 | 90% | 24.5 / 18.9 |
| 27 | Trey Burman '25 | Key School | 8/8 | 0.25 | -0.45 | −0.70 | 29th → 12th | 1.4 | 82% | 24.6 / 20.8 |
| 28 | Jack Tonzola '25 | Delbarton School | 8/8 | 0.01 | -0.55 | −0.56 | 22nd → 10th | 0.9 | 80% | 25.1 / 21.5 |
| 29 | Anthony Abboud '25 | Ranney School Panthers 1 | 8/8 | -0.45 | -2.01 | −1.56 | 12th → 1st | 4.3 | 88% | 27.2 / 23.0 |
| 30 | Hudson Depaul '26 | Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 3 | 8/8 | -0.73 | -1.70 | −0.97 | 7th → 1st | 0.9 | >99% | 30.0 / 24.0 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
