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SAISA Cressy Qualifier ILCA 6

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Griggs Diemar '25 70
2 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Jackson Mcaliley '23 101
3 Berkeley High School (SC) Berkeley High School (SC) Will Rucker '24 128
4 William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Jake Homberger '27 136
5 Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23 141
6 Antilles School Antilles School Tanner Krygsveld '25 161
7 Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Nathan Pine '26 162
8 Miami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior High School Spencer Dominguez '23 162
9 Canterbury School of Florida Canterbury School of Florida Callen Burnett '25 169
10 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Sidney Moyer '23 174
11 The Baldwin School of PR The Baldwin School of PR Rogelio Casellas '24 176
12 Antilles School Antilles School Robert Richards '25 183
13 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Will Barnhart '25 187
14 Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School James Pine '26 194
15 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Olivia Drulard '23 201
16 Clearwater Central Catholic High School Clearwater Central Catholic High School Jan Mistak '25 223
17 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 226
18 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Umi Noritake '24 228
19 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Ben Usher '23 235
20 Miami Palmetto Senior High School Miami Palmetto Senior High School Jonathon Schwartz '25 250
21 MAST Academy MAST Academy Isabella Mendoza '24 250
22 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kate Danielson '24 254
23 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 265
24 Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Academy Sophia Debs '24 272
25 Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Brayden Benesch '24 277
26 Hilton Head Preparatory School Hilton Head Preparatory School Henry Ciszewski '24 280
27 Antilles School Antilles School Katherine Majette '23 294
28 Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Nicholas Crull '26 298
29 MAST Academy MAST Academy Martin Barrera '24 303
30 Hilton Head Preparatory School Hilton Head Preparatory School William Tebrake '23 306
31 South Fork High School South Fork High School Audrey Foley '24 311
32 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Bella Shakespeare '23 321
33 Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Audrey Russler '26 321
34 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Tavia Smith '23 329
35 Antilles School Antilles School Alejo Diblasi '25 330
36 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Ava Mc Aliley '26 334
37 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Garrett Fox '26 346
38 St. Augustine High School (FL) St. Augustine High School (FL) River Keysers '24 364
39 Melbourne High School Melbourne High School Jackson Bjorklund '25 384
40 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Dante Garcia '24 426
41 Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Granger Osborne '26 427
42 Monsignor Edward Pace High School Monsignor Edward Pace High School Matthew Diaz '24 433
43 Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Louise Martin '26 442
44 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Olivia Burdette '25 472
45 St. Augustine High School (FL) St. Augustine High School (FL) Elyse Bernthal '24 474
46 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Jake Taubman '25 479
47 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Jackson Lee '25 492
48 John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Daniel Nester '25 498
49 Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville Scott Busey '23 507
50 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Sophia Fuller '25 517
51 The Baldwin School of PR The Baldwin School of PR Sebastian Garcia '26 521
52 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Zach O'Connor '23 526
53 Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Liam Modzelewski '26 559
54 Philip Simmons High School Philip Simmons High School Samuel Sablotsky '26 564
55 Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Finn Robinson '25 580
56 Model High School Model High School Alexander Jessie '25 591
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Griggs Diemar '25 4 4 1 1 8 10 4 10 5 6 17 70
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Jackson Mcaliley '23 2 12 10 12 29 18 8 5 1 1 3 101
Berkeley High School (SC) Berkeley High School (SC) Will Rucker '24 7 17 3 5 11 21 9 1 33 15 6 128
William T. Dwyer High School William T. Dwyer High School Jake Homberger '27 11 32 17 3 15 13 10 14 13 7 1 136
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23 17 13 7 17 26 31 17 7 2 2 2 141
Antilles School Antilles School Tanner Krygsveld '25 16 DNF 2 10 3 5 21 2 15 25 5 161
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Nathan Pine '26 3 OCS 8 9 12 2 2 19 4 38 8 162
Miami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior High School Spencer Dominguez '23 32 10 9 4 6 42 19 6 9 3 22 162
Canterbury School of Florida Canterbury School of Florida Callen Burnett '25 15 3 33 25 19 1 20 20 14 12 7 169
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Sidney Moyer '23 8 5 26 21 25 32 1 23 11 8 14 174
The Baldwin School of PR The Baldwin School of PR Rogelio Casellas '24 5 27 4 31 2 26 14 17 12 20 18 176
Antilles School Antilles School Robert Richards '25 9 18 6 22 16 23 24 9 25 27 4 183
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Will Barnhart '25 18 6 18 15 18 12 16 34 16 11 23 187
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School James Pine '26 38 15 13 16 13 7 6 32 40 5 9 194
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Olivia Drulard '23 19 38 15 7 5 14 25 29 10 14 25 201
Clearwater Central Catholic High School Clearwater Central Catholic High School Jan Mistak '25 27 11 20 18 1 29 18 12 OCS 17 13 223
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 22 26 16 19 34 27 22 13 3 28 16 226
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Umi Noritake '24 OCS 7 29 6 38 15 26 3 19 16 12 228
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Ben Usher '23 33 23 31 26 17 11 11 21 18 18 26 235
Miami Palmetto Senior High School Miami Palmetto Senior High School Jonathon Schwartz '25 26 22 19 8 42 6 7 42 32 36 10 250
MAST Academy MAST Academy Isabella Mendoza '24 OCS 1 5 42 21 20 3 8 17 19 DNF 250
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kate Danielson '24 10 OCS 12 20 28 8 15 25 7 DNF 15 254
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 25 39 23 34 7 3 35 15 37 23 24 265
Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Academy Sophia Debs '24 28 2 21 41 10 36 39 30 35 9 21 272
Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Brayden Benesch '24 24 35 25 11 20 22 12 16 OCS 22 33 277
Hilton Head Preparatory School Hilton Head Preparatory School Henry Ciszewski '24 35 8 11 23 37 30 32 DNS 6 30 11 280
Antilles School Antilles School Katherine Majette '23 37 19 34 13 9 33 28 4 29 31 DNF 294
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Nicholas Crull '26 31 25 36 37 30 34 5 18 27 26 29 298
MAST Academy MAST Academy Martin Barrera '24 34 20 22 36 22 37 47 40 8 10 27 303
Hilton Head Preparatory School Hilton Head Preparatory School William Tebrake '23 13 29 47 38 23 19 29 31 24 33 20 306
South Fork High School South Fork High School Audrey Foley '24 30 28 27 40 14 24 33 22 23 13 DNF 311
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Bella Shakespeare '23 1 24 44 27 24 16 31 45 30 47 32 321
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Audrey Russler '26 23 9 14 14 39 45 38 38 28 43 30 321
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Tavia Smith '23 20 30 24 44 27 35 27 33 26 35 28 329
Antilles School Antilles School Alejo Diblasi '25 6 34 32 24 43 44 36 11 39 4 DNF 330
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Ava Mc Aliley '26 12 16 40 30 4 41 30 26 36 42 DNF 334
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Garrett Fox '26 29 21 30 2 45 4 23 46 DNF 32 DNF 346
St. Augustine High School (FL) St. Augustine High School (FL) River Keysers '24 21 36 39 OCS 36 17 13 28 OCS 29 31 364
Melbourne High School Melbourne High School Jackson Bjorklund '25 36 31 35 33 33 28 34 47 31 DNF 19 384
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Dante Garcia '24 14 33 38 43 41 39 50 48 22 41 DNF 426
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Granger Osborne '26 45 40 28 48 40 40 43 24 38 24 DNF 427
Monsignor Edward Pace High School Monsignor Edward Pace High School Matthew Diaz '24 41 14 49 47 44 9 49 44 42 37 DNF 433
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Louise Martin '26 46 37 46 35 46 48 42 43 21 21 DNF 442
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Olivia Burdette '25 42 44 37 52 49 38 52 36 20 45 DNF 472
St. Augustine High School (FL) St. Augustine High School (FL) Elyse Bernthal '24 50 41 45 29 48 43 41 37 44 39 DNF 474
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Jake Taubman '25 47 46 41 32 31 46 51 27 50 51 DNF 479
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Jackson Lee '25 40 43 50 54 32 50 44 39 49 34 DNF 492
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Daniel Nester '25 43 51 52 39 35 49 48 35 43 46 DNF 498
Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville Scott Busey '23 53 42 42 46 47 47 46 49 34 44 DNF 507
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Sophia Fuller '25 39 OCS 48 28 53 51 45 41 46 52 DNF 517
The Baldwin School of PR The Baldwin School of PR Sebastian Garcia '26 44 48 51 49 51 53 37 50 41 40 DNF 521
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Zach O'Connor '23 49 49 54 51 54 25 40 52 45 50 DNF 526
Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Liam Modzelewski '26 51 47 53 45 50 55 54 51 48 48 DNF 559
Philip Simmons High School Philip Simmons High School Samuel Sablotsky '26 52 45 43 53 56 52 53 53 51 49 DNF 564
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Finn Robinson '25 48 50 56 50 52 54 55 54 47 DNF DNF 580
Model High School Model High School Alexander Jessie '25 54 DNS 55 55 55 56 56 55 DNF DNS 34 591

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  56 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Griggs Diemar '25Ransom Everglades School Raiders 211/113.464.56+1.0999th → 99th4.15%6.4 / 16.0
2Jackson Mcaliley '23Ransom Everglades School Raiders 411/112.934.00+1.0798th → 99th4.22%9.2 / 19.3
3Will Rucker '24Berkeley High School (SC)11/113.173.50+0.3399th → 99th0.515%11.6 / 17.6
4Jake Homberger '27William T. Dwyer High School11/112.923.51+0.5998th → 99th1.411%12.4 / 19.5
5Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23Sarasota Military Academy11/112.15u3.48+1.3385th → 99th6.25%12.8 / 25.4
6Tanner Krygsveld '25Antilles School Hurricanes 311/112.533.78+1.2592nd → 99th5.017%14.6 / 22.6
7Nathan Pine '26Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 111/112.803.49+0.6896th → 99th1.618%14.7 / 20.4
7Spencer Dominguez '23Miami Beach Senior High School11/112.832.93+0.0996th → 98th0.018%14.7 / 20.3
9Callen Burnett '25Canterbury School of Florida11/112.543.15+0.6292nd → 99th1.613%15.4 / 22.4
10Sidney Moyer '23St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 311/112.513.10+0.5992nd → 99th1.414%15.8 / 22.7
11Rogelio Casellas '24The Baldwin School of PR The Baldwin of PR 211/112.473.04+0.5692nd → 98th1.319%16.0 / 23.1
12Robert Richards '25Antilles School Hurricanes 211/112.163.07+0.9185th → 99th3.29%16.6 / 25.4
13Will Barnhart '25Westminster Christian School11/112.372.97+0.6089th → 98th1.521%17.0 / 23.8
14James Pine '26Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 211/112.512.59+0.0892nd → 93rd0.023%17.6 / 22.6
15Olivia Drulard '23Ransom Everglades School Raiders 311/112.532.67+0.1492nd → 94th0.131%18.3 / 22.7
16Jan Mistak '25Clearwater Central Catholic High School11/112.593.07+0.4893rd → 99th0.944%20.3 / 22.2
17Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25Ransom Everglades School Raiders 611/112.222.69+0.4787th → 95th0.931%20.5 / 24.8
18Umi Noritake '24Immaculata La Salle High School11/112.472.90+0.4392nd → 97th0.736%20.7 / 23.3
19Ben Usher '23John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 211/111.992.55+0.5683rd → 92nd1.326%21.4 / 26.7
20Isabella Mendoza '24MAST Academy Mast Academy 211/111.62u2.94+1.3176th → 98th4.920%22.7 / 29.6
20Jonathon Schwartz '25Miami Palmetto Senior High School11/112.61u2.21−0.4094th → 86th0.855%22.7 / 22.2
22Kate Danielson '24Shorecrest Preparatory School11/112.403.19+0.7991st → 99th2.047%23.1 / 23.6
23Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23St. Thomas Aquinas High School11/112.082.13+0.0584th → 84th0.041%24.1 / 26.2
24Sophia Debs '24Calvary Christian Academy11/111.152.12+0.9763rd → 84th3.614%24.7 / 33.3
25Brayden Benesch '24Palmer Trinity School11/112.202.14−0.0686th → 85th0.050%25.2 / 25.3
26Henry Ciszewski '24Hilton Head Preparatory School Varsity 111/111.032.44+1.4159th → 91st6.315%25.5 / 34.3
27Katherine Majette '23Antilles School Hurricanes 111/111.63u2.33+0.6976th → 89th1.837%26.7 / 29.7
28Nicholas Crull '26Vero Beach High School11/112.372.00−0.3889th → 83rd0.768%27.1 / 23.6
29Martin Barrera '24MAST Academy Mast Academy 111/111.621.82+0.1976th → 80th0.239%27.5 / 30.1
30William Tebrake '23Hilton Head Preparatory School Varsity 211/111.781.93+0.1580th → 82nd0.146%27.8 / 28.5
31Audrey Foley '24South Fork High School11/112.242.23−0.0087th → 87th0.072%28.3 / 24.7
32Audrey Russler '26Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart11/111.821.66−0.1681st → 77th0.155%29.2 / 28.2
32Bella Shakespeare '23St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 211/111.821.47−0.3580th → 72nd0.656%29.2 / 28.0
34Tavia Smith '23John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 311/111.421.83+0.4170th → 81st0.742%29.9 / 31.5
35Alejo Diblasi '25Antilles School Hurricanes 411/112.141.84−0.2985th → 81st0.471%30.0 / 25.6
36Ava Mc Aliley '26Ransom Everglades School Raiders 511/112.121.86−0.2684th → 81st0.372%30.4 / 25.8
37Garrett Fox '26Ransom Everglades School Raiders 111/112.111.94−0.1684th → 82nd0.174%31.5 / 26.0
38River Keysers '24St. Augustine High School (FL) St. Augustine (FL) 111/111.45u1.89+0.4371st → 81st0.758%33.1 / 31.2
39Jackson Bjorklund '25Melbourne High School11/112.301.64−0.6688th → 76th2.389%34.9 / 24.5
40Dante Garcia '24Gulliver Preparatory School11/110.911.15+0.2454th → 63rd0.267%38.7 / 35.7
41Granger Osborne '26Porter-Gaud School11/111.301.18−0.1267th → 65th0.177%38.8 / 32.5
42Matthew Diaz '24Monsignor Edward Pace High School11/110.610.95+0.3443rd → 57th0.557%39.4 / 37.6
43Louise Martin '26Academic Magnet High School11/112.441.00−1.4591st → 58th13.2>99%40.2 / 23.1
44Olivia Burdette '25John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 111/110.820.57−0.2551st → 41st0.381%42.9 / 35.8
45Elyse Bernthal '24St. Augustine High School (FL) St. Augustine (FL) 211/111.13u0.81−0.3261st → 51st0.587%43.1 / 33.7
46Jake Taubman '25Pine Crest School11/110.760.25−0.5148th → 29th1.281%43.5 / 36.5
47Jackson Lee '25H. B. Plant High School11/110.350.31−0.0432nd → 31st0.075%44.7 / 39.3
48Daniel Nester '25John Paul II (SC)11/110.230.26+0.0328th → 29th0.074%45.3 / 40.0
49Scott Busey '23Episcopal School of Jacksonville11/110.860.41−0.4552nd → 34th0.991%46.1 / 35.8
50Sophia Fuller '25St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 111/110.990.10−0.8958th → 24th3.395%47.0 / 34.6
51Sebastian Garcia '26The Baldwin School of PR The Baldwin of PR 111/110.88u0.22−0.6653rd → 28th2.293%47.4 / 35.9
52Zach O'Connor '23St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 411/110.69-0.18−0.8745th → 17th3.893%47.8 / 37.1
53Liam Modzelewski '26Oceanside Collegiate Academy11/110.64u-0.33−0.9743rd → 14th4.998%50.8 / 37.4
54Samuel Sablotsky '26Philip Simmons High School11/11-0.70-0.69+0.018th → 8th0.083%51.3 / 45.7
55Finn Robinson '25Bishop Kenny High School - FL11/110.03-0.79−0.8122nd → 7th2.698%52.7 / 41.7
56Alexander Jessie '25Model High School11/110.18u-2.87−3.0527th → 1st18.899%53.7 / 40.4

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →