SAISA North Points #3 - Varsity

HostLake Lanier Sailing Club
Date11/12/2022
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	11	11	22
2	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	18	23	41
3	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	26	20	46
4	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	24	24	48
5	Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	40	9	49
6	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	25	29	54
7	Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	20	52	72
8	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	39	33	72
9	Glynn Academy	Varsity	39	39	78
10	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	44	57	101
11	Bishop England High School	Bishops	59	48	107
12	Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	50	59	109
13	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	56	54	110

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	1	1	1	1	7	11	Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [1-4] Alex Patangan '23 [5] Alex Patangan '23 [1-4] Jalila Nackashi '24 [5]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	6	BKD	3	2	3	18	Felix Hagar '25 Peter Tetrov '25
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	2	9	4	4	1	20	Alex Bagnoni '23 [1-5] Diego Pryor '24 [1-2, 5] Grace Christman '24 [3-4]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	5	6	6	5	2	24	Scott Busey '23 [1-5] Cohen Chesser '23 [1-2, 5] Julia Dinzelbacher '25 [3-4]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	3	2	9	7	4	25	Granger Osborne '26 [1-5] Owen Rogers '23 [1-4] Lisee Skoglund '23 [5]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	7	4	2	8	5	26	Lawton Harper '24 Elizabeth Hample '25
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	9	5	7	10	8	39	Petra Humphrey '25 Cate Skiles '25
Glynn Academy	Varsity	11	3	5	11	9	39	Liam Kolkmeyer '23 Nathan Roland, Jr '24
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	12	11	8	3	6	40	Walker Hussey '23 Charlotte Casey '25
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	4	10	10	6	DNS	44	Narayan Schmoyer '26 Sarina Schmoyer '23
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	10	7	11	12	10	50	Samuel Sablotsky '26 [1-5] Sophia Shulse '24 [1-2, 5] London Toperzer '24 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	13	8	12	9	DNS	56	No Show No Show
Bishop England High School	Bishops	8	RAF	13	13	11	59	Maggie Hazel '25 Jake Janssen '26

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	1	3	1	1	3	9	Nathan Pine '26 Addy Fisher '23
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	4	1	2	2	2	11	Davis Mclauchlin '24 [1-5] Finn Robinson '25 [1-2, 5] Emma Lawrence '24 [3-4]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	2	5	4	5	4	20	Mason Fisher '26 [1-5] Caroline Uram '24 [1-4] Ty Osmond '23 [5]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	6	2	6	8	1	23	Molly Loring '24 Jackson Fisher '26
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	3	4	8	4	5	24	Mcrae Busey '25 [1-5] Maya Jones '26 [1-2] Rohan Jones '24 [3-5]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	5	8	7	3	6	29	Fordham Smith '23 [1-2, 5] Walker Glenn '26 [3-4] Lisee Skoglund '23 [1-2] Robertson Allen '26 [3-4] Walker Glenn '26 [5]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	7	7	3	6	10	33	Emmy Teer '25 Sean Gallagher '26
Glynn Academy	Varsity	12	6	5	7	9	39	Collin Register '23 Wyatt Kolkmeyer '25
Bishop England High School	Bishops	9	9	11	11	8	48	Oliver Genovese '25 Eli King '26
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	13	13	9	10	7	52	Emily Sternkopf '24 [1-5] Ian Sternkopf '27 [1-2, 5] Anselme Pierson '24 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	8	10	10	12	DNF	54	No Show No Show
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	10	12	12	9	DNF	57	Julia Boutet '23 [1-5] Allson Foess '26 [1-4] Corbin Hasslinger '23 [5]
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	11	11	13	13	BKD	59	Walt Gregg '24 [1-5] Maverick Heater '24 [1-2, 5] Miller Cannon '24 [3-4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	3	3	5
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	2	2	4	4	6
Bishop England High School Bishops	3	3	5	5	7
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	4	4	6	6	8
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	5	5	7	7	9
Glynn Academy Varsity	6	6	8	8	10
James Island Charter High School Varsity	7	7	9	9	11
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	8	8	10	10	12
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	11	11	13
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	10	10	12	12	1
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	11	11	13	13	2
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	12	12	1	1	3
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	13	13	2	2	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	2	2	4	4	6
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	3	3	5	5	7
Bishop England High School Bishops	4	4	6	6	8
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	5	5	7	7	9
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	6	6	8	8	10
Glynn Academy Varsity	7	7	9	9	11
James Island Charter High School Varsity	8	8	10	10	12
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	9	9	11	11	13
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	10	10	12	12	1
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	11	11	13	13	2
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	12	12	1	1	3
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	13	13	2	2	4
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	1	1	3	3	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Lawton Harper '24	Elizabeth Hample '25
Raptors A	Mason Fisher '26 [1-5]	Caroline Uram '24 [1-4] Ty Osmond '23 [5]
Aquinas High School	Alex Bagnoni '23 [1-5]	Diego Pryor '24 [1-2, 5] Grace Christman '24 [3-4]
Fighting Irish	Emily Sternkopf '24 [1-5]	Ian Sternkopf '27 [1-2, 5] Anselme Pierson '24 [3-4]
Bishop England High School	Maggie Hazel '25	Jake Janssen '26
Bishops	Oliver Genovese '25	Eli King '26
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [1-4] Alex Patangan '23 [5]	Alex Patangan '23 [1-4] Jalila Nackashi '24 [5]
Bishop Kenny	Davis Mclauchlin '24 [1-5]	Finn Robinson '25 [1-2, 5] Emma Lawrence '24 [3-4]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Scott Busey '23 [1-5]	Cohen Chesser '23 [1-2, 5] Julia Dinzelbacher '25 [3-4]
ESJ	Mcrae Busey '25 [1-5]	Maya Jones '26 [1-2] Rohan Jones '24 [3-5]
Glynn Academy	Liam Kolkmeyer '23	Nathan Roland, Jr '24
Varsity	Collin Register '23	Wyatt Kolkmeyer '25
James Island Charter High School	Felix Hagar '25	Peter Tetrov '25
Varsity	Molly Loring '24	Jackson Fisher '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Petra Humphrey '25	Cate Skiles '25
Vikings Varsity	Emmy Teer '25	Sean Gallagher '26
Lake Norman High School	No Show	No Show
Wildcats	No Show	No Show
Lucy Beckham High School	Walker Hussey '23	Charlotte Casey '25
Bengals	Nathan Pine '26	Addy Fisher '23
Philip Simmons High School	Samuel Sablotsky '26 [1-5]	Sophia Shulse '24 [1-2, 5] London Toperzer '24 [3-4]
Iron Horses	Walt Gregg '24 [1-5]	Maverick Heater '24 [1-2, 5] Miller Cannon '24 [3-4]
Pine Lake Prep	Narayan Schmoyer '26	Sarina Schmoyer '23
Varsity	Julia Boutet '23 [1-5]	Allson Foess '26 [1-4] Corbin Hasslinger '23 [5]
Porter-Gaud School	Granger Osborne '26 [1-5]	Owen Rogers '23 [1-4] Lisee Skoglund '23 [5]
Varsity	Fordham Smith '23 [1-2, 5] Walker Glenn '26 [3-4]	Lisee Skoglund '23 [1-2] Robertson Allen '26 [3-4] Walker Glenn '26 [5]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA North Points #3 - Varsity

Division A

Division B

From the notes