SAISA North Points #2 - JV/Composite

HostJordan Lake
Date10/22/2022
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	14	4	18
2	New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	12	15	27
3	Epiphany School of Global Studies	Epiphany JV	17	15	32
4	Greensboro High School (LTYC)	Greensboro Composite	13	25	38
5	Enloe High School	JV	15	23	38
6	Raleigh Charter High School	JV	25	16	41
7	Reynolds High School (LTYC)	Reynolds	26	30	56
8	Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Phoenix	40	22	62
9	Northern Nash High School	Northern Nash	33	34	67
10	Ben Lippen School	Falcons	31	42	73
11	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	38	39	77

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	3	3	1	5	12	Graham Foster '26 [1-4] Fiona Somers '26 [1-2] Izzy Humphries '25 [3-4]
Greensboro High School (LTYC)	Greensboro Composite	1	4	4	4	13	Logan Hayes '23 James Lewis '25
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	8	1	2	3	14	Eleanor Wright '26 George Adams '25
Enloe High School	JV	5	6	3	1	15	Amelia Pare '23 [1-4] Henry Geddie '27 [1-2] Ethan Fowles '25 [3-4]
Epiphany School of Global Studies	Epiphany JV	6	2	7	2	17	Jonathan Clubbs '25 Emma French '26
Raleigh Charter High School	JV	7	7	5	6	25	Charlotte Pare '24 Audrey Drabenstott '24
Reynolds High School (LTYC)	Reynolds	4	5	8	9	26	John Spinosa '25 Lilly Copplestone '24
Ben Lippen School	Falcons	10	8	6	7	31	Garrett Phillips '24 Anna Grace Williams '24
Northern Nash High School	Northern Nash	2	10	11	10	33	Owen O'Rourke '24 Colin Jee '26
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	9	11	10	8	38	Ray Mcdonald '25 Macy Stengle '25
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Phoenix	11	9	9	11	40	Trey Medlin '25 Lucian Lerose '27

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	1	1	1	1	4	Finn Bell '26 Lee Wehr '25
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	2	2	8	3	15	Dylan Barbour '27 [1, 3] Aiden Hansen '25 [2, 4] Aiden Hansen '25 [1, 3] Dylan Barbour '27 [2, 4]
Epiphany School of Global Studies	Epiphany JV	4	3	2	6	15	Chase Fidgeon '27 Andrew Connolly '27
Raleigh Charter High School	JV	6	5	3	2	16	Xiaoming Cao '24 Tonya Hakim '23
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Phoenix	3	7	4	8	22	Luca Williamson '24 [1-4] Johnathan Duncan '29 [1-2] Lucian Lerose '27 [3-4]
Enloe High School	JV	8	4	7	4	23	Henry Roney '24 John Michael Waite '24
Greensboro High School (LTYC)	Greensboro Composite	5	8	5	7	25	Jack Mcarthur '23 Molly Lovvorn '24
Reynolds High School (LTYC)	Reynolds	9	6	6	9	30	William Brady '25 Nino Criscoulo '23
Northern Nash High School	Northern Nash	10	10	9	5	34	Jack Armstrong '23 Victoria Pare '27
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	7	9	11	RAF	39	Ryden Jarvis '27 Neven Brookins '26
Ben Lippen School	Falcons	11	11	10	10	42	Anna Thompson '24 [1-2] Haolin Chen '28 [3-4] Sahana Varghese '28 [1-2]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Ben Lippen School Falcons	18	18	18	18
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	113	113	113	113
Enloe High School JV	111	111	111	111
Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany JV	33	33	33	33
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix	9068	9068	9068	9068
Greensboro High School (LTYC) Greensboro Composite	119	119	119	119
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White	401	401	401	401
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	71	71	71	71
Northern Nash High School Northern Nash	41	41	41	41
Raleigh Charter High School JV	121	121	121	121
Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds	117	117	117	117

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Ben Lippen School Falcons	18	18	18	18
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	113	113	113	113
Enloe High School JV	111	111	111	111
Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany JV	33	33	33	33
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix	9068	9068	9068	9068
Greensboro High School (LTYC) Greensboro Composite	119	119	119	119
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White	401	401	401	401
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	71	71	71	71
Northern Nash High School Northern Nash	41	41	41	41
Raleigh Charter High School JV	121	121	121	121
Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds	117	117	117	117

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Ben Lippen School	Garrett Phillips '24	Anna Grace Williams '24
Falcons	Anna Thompson '24 [1-2] Haolin Chen '28 [3-4]	Sahana Varghese '28 [1-2]
Cape Fear Academy	Ray Mcdonald '25	Macy Stengle '25
CFA Varsity	Ryden Jarvis '27	Neven Brookins '26
Enloe High School	Amelia Pare '23 [1-4]	Henry Geddie '27 [1-2] Ethan Fowles '25 [3-4]
JV	Henry Roney '24	John Michael Waite '24
Epiphany School of Global Studies	Jonathan Clubbs '25	Emma French '26
Epiphany JV	Chase Fidgeon '27	Andrew Connolly '27
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington	Trey Medlin '25	Lucian Lerose '27
Phoenix	Luca Williamson '24 [1-4]	Johnathan Duncan '29 [1-2] Lucian Lerose '27 [3-4]
Greensboro High School (LTYC)	Logan Hayes '23	James Lewis '25
Greensboro Composite	Jack Mcarthur '23	Molly Lovvorn '24
John T. Hoggard High School	Eleanor Wright '26	George Adams '25
Vikings JV White	Finn Bell '26	Lee Wehr '25
New Bern High School	Graham Foster '26 [1-4]	Fiona Somers '26 [1-2] Izzy Humphries '25 [3-4]
NB Bears Sailing	Dylan Barbour '27 [1, 3] Aiden Hansen '25 [2, 4]	Aiden Hansen '25 [1, 3] Dylan Barbour '27 [2, 4]
Northern Nash High School	Owen O'Rourke '24	Colin Jee '26
Northern Nash	Jack Armstrong '23	Victoria Pare '27
Raleigh Charter High School	Charlotte Pare '24	Audrey Drabenstott '24
JV	Xiaoming Cao '24	Tonya Hakim '23
Reynolds High School (LTYC)	John Spinosa '25	Lilly Copplestone '24
Reynolds	William Brady '25	Nino Criscoulo '23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA North Points #2 - JV/Composite

Division A

Division B

From the notes