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PCISA Keelboat Challenge

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 13 13
2 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 16 16
3 Parker Parker Parker 27 27
4 Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 32 32
5 Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 37 37
6 Coastal Academy High School Coastal Academy High School Stingrays 51 MRP 51 MRP
7 La Jolla High School La Jolla High School Vikings 60 MRP 60 MRP
8 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Pointers 63 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1 4 1 1 2 3 1 13
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3 1 2 2 4 1 3 16
Parker Parker Parker 5 2 4 3 5 2 6 27
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 4 3 7 5 1 7 5 32
Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 7 5 5 6 3 4 7 37
Coastal Academy High School Coastal Academy High School Stingrays 2 6 6 4 6 5 2 51 MRP
La Jolla High School La Jolla High School Vikings 6 7 3 7 7 6 4 60 MRP
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Pointers RAF RAF OCS RAF RAF RAF RAF 63
School Team Sailors
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Dons SkipperOwen Fretwell '26
CrewEnzo Loth '25
CrewCarlin Fretwell '26
CrewLiam Kaseburg '26
Coastal Academy High School Coastal Academy High School Stingrays SkipperAlex Fisher '27 [1-7]
CrewSantiago Balderson '26 [1-7]
CrewEzra Balderson '25 [1-7]
CrewCaleb Redin '25 [1-7]
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings SkipperDylan Sih '24
CrewIsabella Clark '25
CrewPiper Blackband '24
CrewMichael Sentovich '26
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs SkipperNoah Stapleton '25 [1-7]
CrewSophia Corzine '26 [1-7]
CrewTate Christopher '25 [1-7]
CrewChase Decker '24 [1-7]
Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer SkipperAlex Markworth '25
CrewJosh Kozak '25
CrewIndigo Craig '25
CrewLucas Sarouhan '27
Parker Parker Parker SkipperAva Gustafson '24
CrewAnnika Baumgartner '24
CrewJoey Richardson '24
CrewCharlotte Plant '24
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Pointers SkipperAnton Schmid '26 [1]
CrewPreston Miller '24 [1]
CrewMadilyn Anderson '25 [1]
CrewKaya Hancock '26 [1]

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  8 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Noah Stapleton '25Mater Dei High School7/72.413.28+0.8799th → 99th1.79%1.9 / 3.4
2Dylan Sih '24Corona del Mar High School7/72.502.83+0.3399th → 99th0.319%2.3 / 3.3
3Ava Gustafson '24Parker7/71.641.78+0.1497th → 99th0.135%3.9 / 4.4
4Alex Fisher '27Coastal Academy High School7/70.921.54+0.6272nd → 92nd1.221%4.4 / 5.4
5Owen Fretwell '26Cathedral Catholic High School7/71.351.03−0.3192nd → 74th0.343%4.6 / 4.8
6Alex Markworth '25Mission Bay High School7/70.810.94+0.1465th → 73rd0.140%5.3 / 5.6
8Anton Schmid '26Point Loma High School7/71.57——94th → —0.0>99%9.0 / 4.5

Conditions — 09/30/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.9 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From SW (229°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine5.8 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1011.1 hPa Rain0.10 in

What this breeze does at Francis Parker — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Francis Parker in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Francis Parker by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Francis Parker, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →