SAISA North Points #2 (Varsity)

HostJordan Lake
Date10/21/2023
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	8	16	24
2	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	19	24	43
3	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	19	29	48
4	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	38	17	55
5	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	44	13	57
6	Hilton Head Preparatory School	Varsity	27	53	80
7	Wando High School	Warriors	49	46	95
8	Epiphany School of Global Studies	Epiphany Falcons	48	50	98
9	Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	57	43	100
10	Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	50	65	115
11	John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	45	73	118
12	Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	68	58	126
13	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	69	64	133
14	Chapin High School	Varsity Sailing	81	77	158

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	1	1	1	1	1	3	8	James Pine '26 Charlotte Casey '25
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	3	5	2	2	2	5	19	Kyan Dushak '28 Caroline Uram '24
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	4	2	5	4	3	1	19	Felix Hagar '25 Jackson Fisher '26
Hilton Head Preparatory School	Varsity	2	3	3	3	5	11	27	Henry Ciszewski '24 Li Zhaokun '25
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	6	RDG	6	5	9	6	38	Finn Bell '26 Alex Cai '25
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	10	4	4	8	6	12	44	Granger Osborne '26 [1-6] Robertson Allen '26 [1-4] Charlie Apple '25 [5-6]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	12	7	9	11	4	2	45	Daniel Nester '25 Ayden Kollstedt '25
Epiphany School of Global Studies	Epiphany Falcons	8	11	7	6	12	4	48	Jonathan Clubbs '25 Emma French '26
Wando High School	Warriors	9	9	10	7	7	7	49	Madeleine Harris '25 Jack Lima '27
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	5	6	11	9	10	9	50	Samuel Sablotsky '26 [1-6] London Toperzer '24 [1-2] Mary Pinkston '29 [3-4] Keila Geguzys '26 [5-6]
Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	11	8	8	12	8	10	57	Reece Brown '24 Cooper Denny '24
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	13	10	13	13	11	8	68	Miller Yourkiewicz '28 Wade Finger '30
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	7	13	12	10	13	14	69	Ray Mcdonald '25 John Dugan '27
Chapin High School	Varsity Sailing	14	12	14	14	14	13	81	Griffin Martin '24 Taylor Bulwinkle '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	2	2	3	3	2	1	13	Thomas Weil '27 Walker Glenn '26
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	5	1	1	2	5	2	16	Nathan Pine '26 [1-6] Gresham Kinard '26 [1-2, 5-6] Marcus Carman '27 [3-4]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	1	7	2	1	3	3	17	Petra Humphrey '25 Sam Carson '24
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	4	3	4	4	4	5	24	Bryson Eaton '24 [1-2, 5-6] Molly Loring '24 [3-4] Mya Thomas '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	6	5	5	6	1	6	29	Mason Fisher '26 William Mccarty '26
Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	7	4	11	5	8	8	43	Reese Blackwell '24 Garrett Phillips '24
Wando High School	Warriors	12	6	6	8	7	7	46	Lilianna Harris '27 Jack Mccluskey '27
Epiphany School of Global Studies	Epiphany Falcons	8	8	7	7	10	10	50	Chase Fidgeon '27 Andrew Connolly '27
Hilton Head Preparatory School	Varsity	3	9	12	9	9	11	53	Hudson Monts '25 Martina Mas '25
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	11	13	9	10	11	4	58	Ryden Jarvis '27 Carter Finger '27
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	10	10	8	RDG	12	13	64	Macy Stengle '25 Max Hammer '27
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	13	11	14	12	6	9	65	Walt Gregg '24 [1-6] Maverick Heater '24 [1-2, 5-6] Presley Hancock '29 [3-4]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	9	12	13	11	14	14	73	Michael Fitzgibbons '26 Ethan Bennedetto '26
Chapin High School	Varsity Sailing	14	14	10	14	13	12	77	Lucy Carroll '24 Allison Wetmore '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	54	54	4	4
Ben Lippen School Varsity Sailing	5	5	6	6	52	52
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	54	54	4	4	2	2
Chapin High School Varsity Sailing	6	6	52	52	8	8
Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany Falcons	4	4	2	2	7280	7280
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	52	52	8	8	53	53
Hilton Head Preparatory School Varsity	2	2	7280	7280	3	3
James Island Charter High School Varsity	8	8	53	53	51	51
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	53	53	51	51	12	12
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	7280	7280	3	3	3907	3907
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	3	3	3907	3907	1	1
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	51	51	12	12	5	5
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	3907	3907	1	1	54	54
Wando High School Warriors	12	12	5	5	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	5	5	6	6	52	52
Ben Lippen School Varsity Sailing	54	54	4	4	2	2
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	6	6	52	52	8	8
Chapin High School Varsity Sailing	4	4	2	2	7280	7280
Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany Falcons	52	52	8	8	53	53
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	2	2	7280	7280	3	3
Hilton Head Preparatory School Varsity	8	8	53	53	51	51
James Island Charter High School Varsity	7280	7280	3	3	3907	3907
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	3	3	3907	3907	1	1
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	53	53	51	51	12	12
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	51	51	12	12	5	5
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	3907	3907	1	1	54	54
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	12	12	5	5	6	6
Wando High School Warriors	1	1	54	54	4	4

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Kyan Dushak '28	Caroline Uram '24
Raptors A	Mason Fisher '26	William Mccarty '26
Ben Lippen School	Reece Brown '24	Cooper Denny '24
Varsity Sailing	Reese Blackwell '24	Garrett Phillips '24
Cape Fear Academy	Ray Mcdonald '25	John Dugan '27
CFA Varsity	Macy Stengle '25	Max Hammer '27
Chapin High School	Griffin Martin '24	Taylor Bulwinkle '24
Varsity Sailing	Lucy Carroll '24	Allison Wetmore '25
Epiphany School of Global Studies	Jonathan Clubbs '25	Emma French '26
Epiphany Falcons	Chase Fidgeon '27	Andrew Connolly '27
Eugene Ashley High School	Miller Yourkiewicz '28	Wade Finger '30
Screaming Eagles	Ryden Jarvis '27	Carter Finger '27
Hilton Head Preparatory School	Henry Ciszewski '24	Li Zhaokun '25
Varsity	Hudson Monts '25	Martina Mas '25
James Island Charter High School	Felix Hagar '25	Jackson Fisher '26
Varsity	Bryson Eaton '24 [1-2, 5-6] Molly Loring '24 [3-4]	Mya Thomas '24 [1-2, 5-6]
John Paul II (SC)	Daniel Nester '25	Ayden Kollstedt '25
Varsity	Michael Fitzgibbons '26	Ethan Bennedetto '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Finn Bell '26	Alex Cai '25
Vikings Varsity	Petra Humphrey '25	Sam Carson '24
Lucy Beckham High School	James Pine '26	Charlotte Casey '25
Bengals	Nathan Pine '26 [1-6]	Gresham Kinard '26 [1-2, 5-6] Marcus Carman '27 [3-4]
Philip Simmons High School	Samuel Sablotsky '26 [1-6]	London Toperzer '24 [1-2] Mary Pinkston '29 [3-4] Keila Geguzys '26 [5-6]
Iron Horses	Walt Gregg '24 [1-6]	Maverick Heater '24 [1-2, 5-6] Presley Hancock '29 [3-4]
Porter-Gaud School	Granger Osborne '26 [1-6]	Robertson Allen '26 [1-4] Charlie Apple '25 [5-6]
Varsity	Thomas Weil '27	Walker Glenn '26
Wando High School	Madeleine Harris '25	Jack Lima '27
Warriors	Lilianna Harris '27	Jack Mccluskey '27

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA North Points #2 (Varsity)

Division A

Division B

From the notes