| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Cathedral Catholic High School | Owen Fretwell '26 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 72 |
 |
Point Loma High School | Kousei Hatter '27 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 84 |
|
Point Loma High School | Oscar Parzen '26 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 88 |
 |
San Marcos High School | Teo Lee '26 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 90 |
 |
Santa Barbara High School | Dylan Seawards '26 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 93 |
|
Cathedral Catholic High School | Liam Kaseburg '26 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 97 |
 |
Viewpoint School | Jacob Artof '28 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 102 |
 |
University High School | Qi Yan '26 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 103 |
 |
Le Jardin Acadamy | Michael Kai Hochart '26 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 111 |
 |
Pacific Academy | Timothy Liu '28 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 139 |
|
Point Loma High School | Zachary Peterson '26 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 143 |
 |
Mater Dei High School | Gage Christopher '28 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 11 | 153 |
 |
Dos Pueblos | Emerson Wadell '28 | 15 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 161 |
 |
Torrey Pines High School | Painter Kai '28 | 9 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 173 |
 |
Corona del Mar High School | Nevin Elliott '26 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 19 | DNF | 13 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 175 |
 |
Branson School | Dael Tao '26 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 190 |
 |
Bishop's School | Daniel Guo '27 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 20 | 8 | 24 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 195 |
|
San Marcos High School | Ryan Wells '26 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 200 |
 |
Mission Bay High School | Kaden Miller '25 | 17 | 10 | 23 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 201 |
|
Mater Dei High School | George Qiao '28 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 23 | 13 | 229 |
|
Torrey Pines High School | Painter Cody '28 | 21 | 12 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 244 |
|
Mission Bay High School | Lucas Sarouhan '27 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 17 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 279 |
 |
Salt Lake Center for Science Education | Emmett Ford '27 | 18 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 285 |
 |
El Segundo High School | Tate Vincent '27 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 294 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Owen Fretwell '26 | Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1 | 13/13 | 2.86 | 3.61 | +0.74 | 97th → 99th | 2.3 | 7% | 5.5 / 9.0 |
| 2 | Kousei Hatter '27 | Point Loma High School Pointers 1 | 13/13 | 2.65 | 3.35 | +0.70 | 94th → 99th | 2.1 | 9% | 6.5 / 9.8 |
| 3 | Oscar Parzen '26 | Point Loma High School Pointers 3 | 13/13 | 3.08 | 3.04 | −0.04 | 99th → 98th | 0.0 | 27% | 6.8 / 8.3 |
| 4 | Teo Lee '26 | San Marcos High School Knights 1 | 13/13 | 2.40 | 3.13 | +0.72 | 91st → 99th | 2.3 | 13% | 6.9 / 10.7 |
| 5 | Dylan Seawards '26 | Santa Barbara High School | 13/13 | 2.00 | 2.82 | +0.82 | 83rd → 96th | 2.7 | 7% | 7.2 / 11.9 |
| 6 | Liam Kaseburg '26 | Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2 | 13/13 | 2.12 | 3.31 | +1.19 | 84th → 99th | 5.8 | 11% | 7.5 / 11.5 |
| 7 | Jacob Artof '28 | Viewpoint School | 13/13 | 3.14u | 3.12 | −0.02 | 99th → 99th | 0.0 | 48% | 7.8 / 8.2 |
| 8 | Qi Yan '26 | University High School | 13/13 | 2.69u | 3.01 | +0.32 | 95th → 98th | 0.5 | 34% | 7.9 / 9.5 |
| 9 | Michael Kai Hochart '26 | Le Jardin Acadamy | 13/13 | 2.30u | 2.53 | +0.23 | 88th → 92nd | 0.2 | 25% | 8.5 / 10.9 |
| 10 | Timothy Liu '28 | Pacific Academy | 13/13 | 2.91u | 2.33 | −0.58 | 97th → 89th | 2.0 | 74% | 10.7 / 8.9 |
| 11 | Zachary Peterson '26 | Point Loma High School Pointers 2 | 13/13 | 2.20 | 2.30 | +0.10 | 86th → 88th | 0.1 | 49% | 11.0 / 11.2 |
| 12 | Gage Christopher '28 | Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1 | 13/13 | 2.47 | 2.18 | −0.29 | 91st → 86th | 0.5 | 68% | 11.8 / 10.4 |
| 13 | Emerson Wadell '28 | Dos Pueblos | 13/13 | 2.20 | 1.85 | −0.35 | 86th → 81st | 0.6 | 66% | 12.4 / 11.2 |
| 14 | Painter Kai '28 | Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1 | 13/13 | 1.75u | 1.97 | +0.22 | 79th → 83rd | 0.3 | 56% | 13.3 / 12.7 |
| 15 | Nevin Elliott '26 | Corona del Mar High School | 13/13 | 1.98 | 1.91 | −0.07 | 83rd → 82nd | 0.0 | 67% | 13.5 / 12.0 |
| 16 | Dael Tao '26 | Branson School | 13/13 | 1.47u | 1.47 | −0.00 | 72nd → 72nd | 0.0 | 58% | 14.6 / 13.8 |
| 17 | Daniel Guo '27 | Bishop's School | 13/13 | 0.52 | 0.73 | +0.21 | 39th → 47th | 0.2 | 28% | 15.0 / 16.7 |
| 18 | Ryan Wells '26 | San Marcos High School Knights 2 | 13/13 | 1.36 | 1.41 | +0.05 | 68th → 70th | 0.0 | 65% | 15.4 / 14.1 |
| 19 | Kaden Miller '25 | Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 2 | 13/13 | 1.48 | 1.08 | −0.39 | 72nd → 60th | 0.8 | 70% | 15.5 / 13.6 |
| 20 | George Qiao '28 | Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2 | 13/13 | 0.91u | 0.48 | −0.43 | 54th → 37th | 0.8 | 74% | 17.6 / 15.5 |
| 21 | Painter Cody '28 | Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2 | 13/13 | 1.03u | 0.69 | −0.34 | 59th → 45th | 0.6 | 88% | 18.8 / 15.0 |
| 22 | Lucas Sarouhan '27 | Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 1 | 13/13 | -0.11 | -0.65 | −0.54 | 19th → 8th | 1.1 | 87% | 21.5 / 18.4 |
| 23 | Emmett Ford '27 | Salt Lake Center for Science Education | 13/13 | 0.22u | -0.41 | −0.63 | 28th → 13th | 1.9 | 96% | 21.9 / 17.6 |
| 24 | Tate Vincent '27 | El Segundo High School | 13/13 | -0.27 | -0.76 | −0.49 | 15th → 7th | 1.0 | 96% | 22.6 / 18.9 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
