Norcal 7 Gold

HostHalf Moon Bay Yacht Club
Date02/07/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Menlo School	Varsity	23	23
2	Marin Academy	Wildcats	44	44
3	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	52	52
4	Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	53	53
5	Miramonte High School	Matadors	61	61
6	Redwood	Giants 1	65	65
7	Redwood	Giants 2	75	75
8	Alameda High School	Varsity 2	77	77
9	Branson School	Bulls	80	80
10	The Athenian School	Varsity	110	110
11	Woodside High School	Wildcat	110	110
12	Redwood	Giants 3	110	110
13	Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	124	124
14	St. Lawrence Academy - Santa Clara, CA	Saint Lawrence Acade	125	125
15	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	129	129
16	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	132	132
17	Santa Cruz High School	Varsity	140	140
18	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	142	142
19	Alameda High School	Varsity 1	143	143
20	Aptos High School	Varsity	145	145
21	Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	151	151
22	Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	152	152
23	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	156	156
24	Mission High School	Varsity	166	166
25	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	169	169
26	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	179	179
27	Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	180	180
28	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	192	192
29	Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA	Varsity	199	199

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Menlo School	Varsity	5	1	1	1	2	7	1	5	23	Jackson Wagner '15 Bjorn Antell '17
Marin Academy	Wildcats	6	10	7	4	3	8	2	4	44	Alyson Crowley '16 Madeline Kuhn '16
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	8	8	12	8	1	2	11	2	52	Parker Klebahn '17 Brock Pola '26
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	12	2	2	12	11	6	7	1	53	Michael Pacholski '15 Duncan Robertson '18
Miramonte High School	Matadors	18	4	5	3	6	12	3	10	61	Kai Otsmaa '17 Eneko Iriso '19
Redwood	Giants 1	4	9	10	9	5	1	24	3	65	Ted Bascom '15 Chloe Belgum '16
Redwood	Giants 2	13	19	14	6	9	3	5	6	75	Harry Schmidt '16 Liam Farese '18
Alameda High School	Varsity 2	3	14	8	2	10	13	4	23	77	Drake Hayes '17 Caila Devlin '17
Branson School	Bulls	9	16	4	13	8	10	8	12	80	Jackson Ritter '16 Ben Hoffner '16
The Athenian School	Varsity	1	11	16	17	17	4	18	26	110	Xavier Theo Quinn '16 Jackson Kaplan '17
Woodside High School	Wildcat	16	12	13	19	26	9	6	9	110	Patrick Wilkinson '16 Tyler Davis '18
Redwood	Giants 3	27	5	3	21	7	16	20	11	110	Michael Brandon '16 Lennon Lott '15
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	20	6	19	16	13	21	21	8	124	Julian Martinez-Prado '15 Talia Rozenbaum '15
St. Lawrence Academy - Santa Clara, CA	Saint Lawrence Acade	21	23	6	5	28	14	13	15	125	Jayden Potter '16 Thomas Samuels '17
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	24	26	15	15	16	11	15	7	129	Gwynie Dunlevy '16
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	22	24	OCS	7	4	5	12	28	132	Hayden Potter '16 Francis Streitman '17
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity	11	18	24	11	12	20	19	25	140	Nicholas Lenz '15 Kyle Hunt '15
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	7	21	20	25	29	18	9	13	142	Emiliano Bache '16 Paige Dunlevy '16
Alameda High School	Varsity 1	14	7	18	28	14	28	16	18	143	Miles Orozco '16 Dimitri Stetsenko '16
Aptos High School	Varsity	19	3	11	14	27	17	25	29	145	Isabel Andrew '16 Sam Bach '19
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	2	22	22	20	15	23	23	24	151	Bear Lundegaard '15 Stuart Myers '17
Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	15	25	9	23	24	15	22	19	152	Mark Power '15 Maeve Lavelle '15
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	10	13	17	29	21	27	17	22	156	Amanda Wheeler '25 Luke Probst '26
Mission High School	Varsity	29	27	OCS	10	25	19	10	16	166	Hunter (Cazzie) Cutting '16 Sterling Syquia '15
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	25	20	21	18	19	24	28	14	169	Keith Roehl '15 Claire Mohun '15
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	23	15	27	22	23	25	27	17	179	Pacal Hines '16 Nolwenn Menard '19
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	28	17	23	27	22	22	14	27	180	Wu Newell '15 Ricky Orozco '15
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	17	OCS	25	24	18	29	29	20	192	Sumner Strumph '17 John Deruff '17
Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA	Varsity	26	28	26	26	20	26	26	21	199	Chad Farrell '16 Emily Simpkins '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Alameda High School Varsity 1	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
Alameda High School Varsity 2	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
Aptos High School Varsity	110	110	110	110	110	110	110	110
Berkeley High School Varsity 1	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59
Berkeley High School Varsity 2	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 1	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 2	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA Varsity	130	130	130	130	130	130	130	130
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Marin Academy Wildcats	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121
Menlo School Varsity	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Miramonte High School Matadors	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57
Mission High School Varsity	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72
Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 1	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101
Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 2	106	106	106	106	106	106	106	106
Redwood Giants 1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Redwood Giants 2	124	124	124	124	124	124	124	124
Redwood Giants 3	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
St. Lawrence Academy - Santa Clara, CA Saint Lawrence Acade	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Santa Cruz High School Varsity	104	104	104	104	104	104	104	104
Junipero Serra High School JSerra	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	58	58	58	58	58	58	58	58
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	134	134	134	134	134	134	134	134
The Athenian School Varsity	56	56	56	56	56	56	56	56
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82
Branson School Bulls	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Woodside High School Wildcat	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Varsity 1	Miles Orozco '16	Dimitri Stetsenko '16
Alameda High School	Varsity 2	Drake Hayes '17	Caila Devlin '17
Aptos High School	Varsity	Isabel Andrew '16	Sam Bach '19
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	Bear Lundegaard '15	Stuart Myers '17
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	Wu Newell '15	Ricky Orozco '15
Branson School	Bulls	Jackson Ritter '16	Ben Hoffner '16
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	Emiliano Bache '16	Paige Dunlevy '16
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	Gwynie Dunlevy '16
Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	Mark Power '15	Maeve Lavelle '15
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Parker Klebahn '17	Brock Pola '26
Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA	Varsity	Chad Farrell '16	Emily Simpkins '17
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	Pacal Hines '16	Nolwenn Menard '19
Marin Academy	Wildcats	Alyson Crowley '16	Madeline Kuhn '16
Menlo School	Varsity	Jackson Wagner '15	Bjorn Antell '17
Miramonte High School	Matadors	Kai Otsmaa '17	Eneko Iriso '19
Mission High School	Varsity	Hunter (Cazzie) Cutting '16	Sterling Syquia '15
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	Michael Pacholski '15	Duncan Robertson '18
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	Julian Martinez-Prado '15	Talia Rozenbaum '15
Redwood	Giants 1	Ted Bascom '15	Chloe Belgum '16
Redwood	Giants 2	Harry Schmidt '16	Liam Farese '18
Redwood	Giants 3	Michael Brandon '16	Lennon Lott '15
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity	Nicholas Lenz '15	Kyle Hunt '15
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	Amanda Wheeler '25	Luke Probst '26
St. Lawrence Academy - Santa Clara, CA	Saint Lawrence Acade	Jayden Potter '16	Thomas Samuels '17
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	Hayden Potter '16	Francis Streitman '17
The Athenian School	Varsity	Xavier Theo Quinn '16	Jackson Kaplan '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	Keith Roehl '15	Claire Mohun '15
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Sumner Strumph '17	John Deruff '17
Woodside High School	Wildcat	Patrick Wilkinson '16	Tyler Davis '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Norcal 7 Gold

Division A

From the notes