Norcal 7 Silver

HostHalf Moon Bay Yacht Club
Date02/07/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	18	18
2	Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	30	30
3	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 3	30	30
4	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	51	51
5	Woodside High School	Wildcat 1	51	51
6	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity	58	58
7	Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 2	65	65
8	Stevenson School	Varsity 1	74	74
9	Miramonte High School	Matadors	83	83
10	Aptos High School	Varsity 2	90	90
11	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 1	94	94
12	Harbor High School	Harbor Pirates	98	98
13	Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	104	104
14	Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 1	106	106
15	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	106	106
16	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	107	107
17	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	109	109
18	Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	110	110
19	Woodside High School	Wildcat 2	117	117
20	Aptos High School	Varsity 1	121	121
21	Los Gatos High School	Varsity	125	125
22	Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	131	131
23	Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA	Varsity	142	142
24	Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars 1	144	144
25	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 2	160	160
26	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	173	173
27	Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars 2	179	179
28	Stevenson School	Varsity 2	187	187
29	Redwood High School	Giants 2	193	193
30	Redwood High School	Giants 1	213	213

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	5	3	2	1	1	3	3	18	Simon Boeger '19 Liam Orozco '19
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	6	9	4	4	2	4	1	30	Tj Mahoney '19 Cambell Conour '19
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 3	7	6	3	2	4	1	7	30	Radley Peschel '16 Jonathan Fisher '17
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	2	1	26	13	5	2	2	51	Michael Lively '18 [1-2, 5-7] John Dilella '18 [3-4] Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [1-2, 5-7]
Woodside High School	Wildcat 1	18	2	5	3	7	10	6	51	Joseph Politi '18 Jacob Kowalski '19
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity	8	5	1	10	13	17	4	58	Marisa De Souza '15 Tiffany Xi '15
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 2	3	4	24	7	6	13	8	65	Josselyn Verutti '17 Ben Risley '17
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	19	16	7	11	3	9	9	74	Jack Hu '15 Ian Smelser '17
Miramonte High School	Matadors	1	10	16	5	24	15	12	83	Daniel Erisman '19 Thomas Erisman '19
Aptos High School	Varsity 2	17	8	19	8	9	12	17	90	Trevor Foley '18 Spencer Frawley '16
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 1	10	14	14	6	17	18	15	94	Derek Makovich '16 Nathan Nakahara '16
Harbor High School	Harbor Pirates	15	25	6	15	12	11	14	98	Ian Collignon '16 Chloe Long '19
Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	23	13	8	14	14	5	27	104	Cooper Larhette '17 Kristen Zarembinski '19
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 1	16	18	10	9	18	22	13	106	Olivia Beers '17 Charlie Atkinson '18
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	24	15	9	19	11	8	20	106	Lily Cunningham '17 Meave Cunningham '17
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	14	23	11	21	8	6	24	107	Cody Ocallahan '21 Elise Nicol '18
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	13	7	22	17	23	16	11	109	Antonio Mejia '16 Cole Thompson '15
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	12	17	18	20	15	7	21	110	Kate Chandler '17 Amy Ely '16
Woodside High School	Wildcat 2	9	24	15	23	22	14	10	117	Judith Politi '21 Sophia Mcdevitt '17
Aptos High School	Varsity 1	4	11	17	24	19	23	23	121	Dana Foley '18 Madeline Miller '16
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	22	12	25	26	16	19	5	125	Max Testa '15 Lilah Foster '17
Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	21	19	13	16	21	25	16	131	Ryter Ullrich '18 Chao Isabella '18
Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA	Varsity	11	21	12	18	28	27	25	142	Jackson Faylor '15 Justin Flores '17
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars 1	25	27	20	12	20	21	19	144	Sam Reynolds '17 Brett Baron '16
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 2	27	20	23	27	25	20	18	160	Peter Werner '17 Kat Hipkins '17
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	29	29	27	28	10	24	26	173	Lena Fisher '18 Jade Greer '19
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars 2	20	28	28	22	27	26	28	179	Emma Reynolds '16 Kiera Cullen '17
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	DNS	26	29	25	26	28	22	187	Lance Zhou '15 Vic Sahni '17
Redwood High School	Giants 2	26	22	21	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	193	Culley Deisinger '15 Rachel Maier '15
Redwood High School	Giants 1	28	30	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	213	Blake Bunney '18 Kali Gibbs '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Aptos High School Varsity 1	108	108	108	108	108	108	108
Aptos High School Varsity 2	103	103	103	103	103	103	103
Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity	52	52	52	52	52	52	52
Campolindo High School Cougars 1	48	48	48	48	48	48	48
Campolindo High School Cougars 2	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Crystal Springs Uplands School Varsity	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Half Moon Bay High School Cougars 1	137	137	137	137	137	137	137
Half Moon Bay High School Cougars 2	138	138	138	138	138	138	138
Harbor High School Harbor Pirates	109	109	109	109	109	109	109
International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Kirby School Kirby Varsity 1	102	102	102	102	102	102	102
Kirby School Kirby Varsity 2	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA Varsity	131	131	131	131	131	131	131
Los Gatos High School Varsity	107	107	107	107	107	107	107
Miramonte High School Matadors	44	44	44	44	44	44	44
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	49	49	49	49	49	49	49
Monte Vista Christian School Monte Vista Mustangs	105	105	105	105	105	105	105
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA Varsity	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
Redwood High School Giants 1	135	135	135	135	135	135	135
Redwood High School Giants 2	136	136	136	136	136	136	136
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Sir Francis Drake Varsity 1	96	96	96	96	96	96	96
Sir Francis Drake Varsity 2	63	63	63	63	63	63	63
Stevenson School Varsity 1	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
Stevenson School Varsity 2	97	97	97	97	97	97	97
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity 1	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity 2	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity 3	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
Woodside High School Wildcat 1	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Woodside High School Wildcat 2	27	27	27	27	27	27	27

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Aptos High School	Varsity 1	Dana Foley '18	Madeline Miller '16
Aptos High School	Varsity 2	Trevor Foley '18	Spencer Frawley '16
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	Simon Boeger '19	Liam Orozco '19
Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	Cooper Larhette '17	Kristen Zarembinski '19
Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	Ryter Ullrich '18	Chao Isabella '18
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity	Marisa De Souza '15	Tiffany Xi '15
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars 1	Sam Reynolds '17	Brett Baron '16
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars 2	Emma Reynolds '16	Kiera Cullen '17
Harbor High School	Harbor Pirates	Ian Collignon '16	Chloe Long '19
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	Lena Fisher '18	Jade Greer '19
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 1	Olivia Beers '17	Charlie Atkinson '18
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 2	Josselyn Verutti '17	Ben Risley '17
Lincoln High School - Stockton, CA	Varsity	Jackson Faylor '15	Justin Flores '17
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	Max Testa '15	Lilah Foster '17
Miramonte High School	Matadors	Daniel Erisman '19	Thomas Erisman '19
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	Kate Chandler '17	Amy Ely '16
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	Michael Lively '18 [1-2, 5-7] John Dilella '18 [3-4]	Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [1-2, 5-7]
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	Tj Mahoney '19	Cambell Conour '19
Redwood High School	Giants 1	Blake Bunney '18	Kali Gibbs '18
Redwood High School	Giants 2	Culley Deisinger '15	Rachel Maier '15
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	Lily Cunningham '17	Meave Cunningham '17
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	Antonio Mejia '16	Cole Thompson '15
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	Cody Ocallahan '21	Elise Nicol '18
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	Jack Hu '15	Ian Smelser '17
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	Lance Zhou '15	Vic Sahni '17
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 1	Derek Makovich '16	Nathan Nakahara '16
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 2	Peter Werner '17	Kat Hipkins '17
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 3	Radley Peschel '16	Jonathan Fisher '17
Woodside High School	Wildcat 1	Joseph Politi '18	Jacob Kowalski '19
Woodside High School	Wildcat 2	Judith Politi '21	Sophia Mcdevitt '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Norcal 7 Silver

Division A

From the notes