| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Cathedral Catholic High School | Dons | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
The Bay School of San Francisco | Breakers | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings Varsity | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 620 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.544 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School Pointers | 2 | 7.79 school −0.15 | Andy Reiter / Jennifer Johnson 3.08 Johannes Mcelvain / Rebecca Mcelvain Jack Mcgraw / Mercedes Mcphee | 57% | 11–1 (92%) | +4.2 |
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School Sailors | 1 | 9.36 school −0.23 | Campbell D'Eliscu / Madeline Bubb 3.51 Sean Segerblom / Briggs D'Eliscu 3.44 Carter Scott / Eliza Moody 2.60 | 85% | 9–3 (75%) | −1.2 |
| 3 | Cathedral Catholic High School Dons | 3 | 7.37 school +0.15 | Charlie Miller / Alexandra Fayer Ryan Ratliffe / Elizabeth Matheson Jesse Mcknight / Isabella Harrington | 48% | 7–5 (58%) | +1.2 |
| 4 | The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers | 5 | 5.67 | Sammy Shea / Chloe Bohannon Nolan Van Dine / Juliana Testa Spencer Paulsen / Sumner Strumph 3–3 Spencer Paulsen / William Hale 0–6 | 17% | 3–9 (25%) | +1.0 |
| 5 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity | 4 | 7.13 | Rhodes Garner / Kate Madigan Sean Dahl / Victoria Thompson Derek Pickell / Kira Woods | 43% | 0–12 (0%) | −5.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School | 7.79 | 11.01 | 11–1 | 6.8 | +3.22 | 6.4 | 1% |
| 4 | The Bay School of San Francisco | 5.67 | 6.34 | 3–9 | 2.0 | +0.67 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 3 | Cathedral Catholic High School | 7.37 | 8.02 | 7–5 | 5.8 | +0.65 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School | 9.36 | 8.54 | 9–3 | 10.2 | −0.83 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 5 | Corona del Mar High School | 7.13 | 4.13 | 0–12 | 5.2 | ≤−3.00 | 9.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Reiter | Point Loma High School | 3.08 | 6.29 | 11–1 | 6.8 | +3.22 | 6.4 | 1% |
| Charlie Miller | Cathedral Catholic High School | 2.34 | 2.98 | 7–5 | 5.8 | +0.65 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Carter Scott | Newport Harbor High School | 2.60 | 1.77 | 9–3 | 10.2 | −0.83 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Sean Dahl | Corona del Mar High School | 1.81 | -1.19 | 0–12 | 5.2 | ≤−3.00 | 9.6 | >99% |
| Derek Pickell | Corona del Mar High School | 2.39 | -0.61 | 0–12 | 5.2 | ≤−3.00 | 9.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Breakers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Dons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Breakers | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dons | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Breakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Dons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Breakers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dons | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dons | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Breakers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Dons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Dons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Breakers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Breakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Dons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Breakers | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Breakers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dons | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Breakers | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Dons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Breakers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Dons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Breakers | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Pointers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 1-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dons | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Point Loma High School | Pointers | Andy Reiter '15 Jack Mcgraw '16 Johannes Mcelvain '15 |
Jennifer Johnson '15 Mercedes Mcphee '15 Rebecca Mcelvain '15 |
|
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | Campbell D'Eliscu '15 Carter Scott '16 Sean Segerblom '16 |
Madeline Bubb '16 Eliza Moody '16 Briggs D'Eliscu '16 |
|
Cathedral Catholic High School | Dons | Charlie Miller '15 Jesse Mcknight '16 Ryan Ratliffe '17 |
Alexandra Fayer '15 Isabella Harrington '18 Elizabeth Matheson '16 |
|
The Bay School of San Francisco | Breakers | Nolan Van Dine '15 Sammy Shea '15 Spencer Paulsen '16 |
Juliana Testa '17 Chloe Bohannon '16 Sumner Strumph '17 William Hale '18 |
|
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings Varsity | Derek Pickell '16 Rhodes Garner '16 Sean Dahl '17 |
Kira Woods '15 Kate Madigan '16 Victoria Thompson '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
