MISSA Conference Regatta #3

HostLake Calhoun Sailing School
Date04/23/2016
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	White Bear Lake High School	Bears	16	20	36
2	White Bear Lake High School	Mixed	27	25	52
3	Edina High School	mixed 1	31	33	64
4	Orono High School	Scarlet	53	16	69
5	Mounds View High School	Mixed	24	55	79
6	Hudson	Mixed	50	43	93
7	Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	47	53	100
8	Providence Academy	Mixed	70	31	101
9	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	68	34	102
10	Chanhassen High School	Navy	46	61	107
11	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	25	84	109
12	Edina High School	mixed 2	55	56	111
13	Providence Academy	Navy	72	49	121
14	Washburn High School	Varsity 1	72	93	165
15	Washburn High School	Varsity 2	80	85	165
16	Wayzata High School	Navy	98	85	183
17	Minnetonka High School	Mixed	85	101	186

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
White Bear Lake High School	Bears	5	4	2	1	2	2	16	Kate Cox '16 Olivia Staruck '16
Mounds View High School	Mixed	3	9	3	2	3	4	24	Jack Indritz '17 [1-6] Vivian Bonsager '20 [1-2, 5-6] Addie Engebretson '18 [3-4]
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	7	1	10	5	1	1	25	Matthew Kickhafer '19 Connor Wacker '19
White Bear Lake High School	Mixed	4	7	1	4	4	7	27	Toby Sullivan '18 [1-6] Morgan Brown '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jose Verela '17 [3-4]
Edina High School	mixed 1	1	5	9	8	5	3	31	George Moore '19 Kate Higgins '18
Chanhassen High School	Navy	13	10	4	6	8	5	46	Lucas Haarstad '17 Zach Paulson '20
Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	8	13	5	3	6	12	47	Genna Viggiano '18 Clara Brown '18
Hudson	Mixed	2	2	16	7	10	13	50	Adam Tronnes '20 Leigh Marker '17
Orono High School	Scarlet	6	8	8	11	12	8	53	Rachel Bartel '20 Jack Swenson '19
Edina High School	mixed 2	10	3	13	14	9	6	55	Ben Ragus '20 Phoenix Pham '19
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	14	12	14	10	7	11	68	Henry Westlind '19 Kacy Bryant '18
Providence Academy	Mixed	11	15	11	9	15	9	70	Ella Brunsman '16 Mikaela Maglich '16
Washburn High School	Varsity 1	9	DNF	6	13	11	15	72	Sevrin Weed '18 Joshua Shepherd '15
Providence Academy	Navy	15	6	7	15	13	16	72	Jack Wall '17 Claire Christianson '18
Washburn High School	Varsity 2	12	11	15	16	16	10	80	Chip Specker '19 Jackson Lee '19
Minnetonka High School	Mixed	17	16	12	12	14	14	85	Michael Dowson '19 Rithvich Ramesh '17
Wayzata High School	Navy	16	14	17	17	17	17	98	Theo Odermann '21 Megan Schoenzeit '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Orono High School	Scarlet	2	2	4	3	1	4	16	Seamus Hendrickson '20 Louise Rosenbaum '20
White Bear Lake High School	Bears	1	1	1	4	2	11	20	Ethan Staruck '18 Charlie Wagner '16
White Bear Lake High School	Mixed	5	3	6	2	7	2	25	Matt Dresen '20 [1-6] Jack Elias '20 [1-4] Jose Verela '17 [5-6]
Providence Academy	Mixed	7	6	3	1	13	1	31	Austin Charrier '17 Chase Blum '18
Edina High School	mixed 1	6	10	2	5	4	6	33	Tighe Case '18 Stephanie Daub '16
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	4	5	5	6	9	5	34	Garrett Moen '19 Hannah Dillahunt '17
Hudson	Mixed	11	12	7	7	3	3	43	Oscar Nemitz '20 Oscar Nemitz '20
Providence Academy	Navy	10	4	9	8	10	8	49	Eleanor Christianson '19 Grace Van Dellen '18
Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	13	7	10	9	5	9	53	Anneka Ecker '17 [1-6] Lauren Geib '17 [1-2, 5-6] Kristen Geib '20 [3-4]
Mounds View High School	Mixed	3	8	13	13	6	12	55	Acadia Hegedus '18 Morgan Termaat '16
Edina High School	mixed 2	8	11	11	11	8	7	56	Nicole Guiliani '20 Clare Leeper '19
Chanhassen High School	Navy	9	13	8	10	11	10	61	Ryan Bohara '18 Ana Haarstad '19
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	14	9	DNS	15	15	13	84	Natan Tapper '19 Harrison Alderink '19
Wayzata High School	Navy	12	16	14	12	16	15	85	Alex Saffert '20 Jacob Sparber '20
Washburn High School	Varsity 2	16	15	12	14	12	16	85	Ed Shipp '19 Eleanor Koster '15
Washburn High School	Varsity 1	17	17	15	16	14	14	93	Benedict Sklaney '16 Meghan Reed '15
Minnetonka High School	Mixed	15	14	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	101	Rex Frazier '20 Jack Bitney '15

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.330+0.33

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Chanhassen High School Navy	10	10	10	10	10	10
Edina High School mixed 1	22	22	22	22	22	22
Edina High School mixed 2	15	15	15	15	15	15
Hudson Mixed	14	14	14	14	14	14
Mahtomedi Zephyrs	8	8	8	8	8	8
Minnetonka High School Mixed	9	9	9	9	9	9
Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	5	5	5	5	5	5
Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	12	12	12	12	12	12
Mounds View High School Mixed	1	1	1	1	1	1
Orono High School Scarlet	7	7	7	7	7	7
Providence Academy Mixed	16	16	16	16	16	16
Providence Academy Navy	11	11	11	11	11	11
Washburn High School Varsity 1	13	13	13	13	13	13
Washburn High School Varsity 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Wayzata High School Navy	19	19	19	19	19	19
White Bear Lake High School Bears	21	21	21	21	21	21
White Bear Lake High School Mixed	6	6	6	6	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Chanhassen High School Navy	10	10	10	10	10	10
Edina High School mixed 1	22	22	22	22	22	22
Edina High School mixed 2	15	15	15	15	15	15
Hudson Mixed	14	14	14	14	14	14
Mahtomedi Zephyrs	8	8	8	8	8	8
Minnetonka High School Mixed	9	9	9	9	9	9
Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	5	5	5	5	5	5
Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	12	12	12	12	12	12
Mounds View High School Mixed	1	1	1	1	1	1
Orono High School Scarlet	7	7	7	7	7	7
Providence Academy Mixed	16	16	16	16	16	16
Providence Academy Navy	11	11	11	11	11	11
Washburn High School Varsity 1	13	13	13	13	13	13
Washburn High School Varsity 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Wayzata High School Navy	19	19	19	19	19	19
White Bear Lake High School Bears	21	21	21	21	21	21
White Bear Lake High School Mixed	6	6	6	6	6	6

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Chanhassen High School	Lucas Haarstad '17	Zach Paulson '20
Navy	Ryan Bohara '18	Ana Haarstad '19
Edina High School	George Moore '19	Kate Higgins '18
mixed 1	Tighe Case '18	Stephanie Daub '16
Edina High School	Ben Ragus '20	Phoenix Pham '19
mixed 2	Nicole Guiliani '20	Clare Leeper '19
Hudson	Adam Tronnes '20	Leigh Marker '17
Mixed	Oscar Nemitz '20	Oscar Nemitz '20
Mahtomedi	Genna Viggiano '18	Clara Brown '18
Zephyrs	Anneka Ecker '17 [1-6]	Lauren Geib '17 [1-2, 5-6] Kristen Geib '20 [3-4]
Minnetonka High School	Michael Dowson '19	Rithvich Ramesh '17
Mixed	Rex Frazier '20	Jack Bitney '15
Minnetonka High School	Henry Westlind '19	Kacy Bryant '18
Skippers 1	Garrett Moen '19	Hannah Dillahunt '17
Minnetonka High School	Matthew Kickhafer '19	Connor Wacker '19
Skippers 2	Natan Tapper '19	Harrison Alderink '19
Mounds View High School	Jack Indritz '17 [1-6]	Vivian Bonsager '20 [1-2, 5-6] Addie Engebretson '18 [3-4]
Mixed	Acadia Hegedus '18	Morgan Termaat '16
Orono High School	Rachel Bartel '20	Jack Swenson '19
Scarlet	Seamus Hendrickson '20	Louise Rosenbaum '20
Providence Academy	Ella Brunsman '16	Mikaela Maglich '16
Mixed	Austin Charrier '17	Chase Blum '18
Providence Academy	Jack Wall '17	Claire Christianson '18
Navy	Eleanor Christianson '19	Grace Van Dellen '18
Washburn High School	Sevrin Weed '18	Joshua Shepherd '15
Varsity 1	Benedict Sklaney '16	Meghan Reed '15
Washburn High School	Chip Specker '19	Jackson Lee '19
Varsity 2	Ed Shipp '19	Eleanor Koster '15
Wayzata High School	Theo Odermann '21	Megan Schoenzeit '21
Navy	Alex Saffert '20	Jacob Sparber '20
White Bear Lake High School	Kate Cox '16	Olivia Staruck '16
Bears	Ethan Staruck '18	Charlie Wagner '16
White Bear Lake High School	Toby Sullivan '18 [1-6]	Morgan Brown '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jose Verela '17 [3-4]
Mixed	Matt Dresen '20 [1-6]	Jack Elias '20 [1-4] Jose Verela '17 [5-6]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MISSA Conference Regatta #3

Division A

Division B

From the notes