MN Conference #2 Team Race

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 1,646 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 21 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.571 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.58: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Wayzata High School Mixed	1	3.06 school −0.25	Emma Aubuchon / Anna Brew Aidan Burke / Theo Odermann Wiley Hunt / Jacob Sparber 1.06	74%	6–0 (100%)	+1.5
2	Stillwater High School Mixed	4	1.76	Brian Olson / Katie Wallace Aidan Lundgren / Aidan Lundgren Luke Kurle / Luke Kurle 3–0 Luke Kurle / Brian Olson 2–1	48%	5–1 (83%)	+2.1
3	Orono High School Scarlet	2	2.88 school −0.18	Rachel Bartel / Louise Rosenbaum Seamus Hendrickson / Helen Mcdonnell Isaac Pattison / Chase Blum	70%	3–3 (50%)	−1.2
4	Edina High School mixed	6	0.75	Ben Ragus / Ben Ragus George Moore / Kate Higgins Grace Drought / Clare Leeper	30%	3–3 (50%)	+1.2
5	Minnetonka High School Skippers	3	2.10	Sydney Maxwell / Hannah Dillahunt Michael Dowson / Rithvich Ramesh Henry Westlind / Rex Frazier	55%	3–3 (50%)	−0.3
6	Providence Academy Navy	7	0.58 school −0.10	Claire Christianson / Grace Cummins Eleanor Christianson / Cierra Ramsay 0.29 Jack Wall / Grace Van Dellen 0.23	29%	1–5 (17%)	−0.7
7	Minnetonka High School Mixed	5	1.47	Garrett Moen / Jack Bitney William Sweeney / Harrison Alderink Mason Meccia / Khan Nickel	44%	0–6 (0%)	−2.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Wayzata High School Mixed	3.06	6.06	6–0	4.5	≥+3.00	2.4	15%
2	Stillwater High School Mixed	1.76	4.13	5–1	2.9	+2.38	2.6	8%
4	Edina High School mixed	0.75	1.96	3–3	1.8	+1.20	0.9	24%
5	Minnetonka High School Skippers	2.10	1.80	3–3	3.3	−0.30	0.1	76%
6	Providence Academy Navy	0.58	-0.38	1–5	1.7	−0.96	0.4	88%
3	Orono High School Scarlet	2.88	1.68	3–3	4.2	−1.20	0.8	94%
7	Minnetonka High School Mixed	1.47	-1.53	0–6	2.7	≤−3.00	4.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Emma Aubuchon	Wayzata High School	1.29	4.29	6–0	4.5	≥+3.00	2.4	15%
Aidan Burke	Wayzata High School	0.64	3.64	6–0	4.5	≥+3.00	2.4	15%
Wiley Hunt	Wayzata High School	1.06	4.06	6–0	4.5	≥+3.00	2.4	15%
Luke Kurle	Stillwater High School	0.71	3.09	5–1	2.9	+2.38	2.6	8%
Aidan Lundgren	Stillwater High School	-0.14	2.24	5–1	2.9	+2.38	2.6	8%
Grace Drought	Edina High School	-0.29	0.91	3–3	1.8	+1.20	0.9	24%
Michael Dowson	Minnetonka High School	0.17	-0.14	3–3	3.3	−0.30	0.1	76%
Claire Christianson	Providence Academy	-0.10	-1.06	1–5	1.7	−0.96	0.4	88%
Jack Wall	Providence Academy	0.23	-0.73	1–5	1.7	−0.96	0.4	88%
Isaac Pattison	Orono High School	0.71	-0.49	3–3	4.2	−1.20	0.8	94%
Mason Meccia	Minnetonka High School	0.71	-2.29	0–6	2.7	≤−3.00	4.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		mixed	2-3-5	def.		Navy	1-4-6
2		Skippers	2-3-5	def.		Scarlet	1-4-6
3		Mixed	1-2-3	def.		Mixed	4-5-6
4		Mixed	1-2-5	def.		Navy	3-4-6
5		mixed	1-2-4	def.		Mixed	3-5-6
6		Mixed	1-2-4	def.		Skippers	3-5-6
7		Scarlet	1-2-4	def.		Navy	3-5-6
8		Mixed	1-2-4	def.		Mixed	3-5-6
9		Mixed	1-2-3	def.		mixed	4-5-6
10		Scarlet	2-3-4	def.		Mixed	1-5-6
11		Skippers	1-3-4	def.		Navy	2-5-6
12		Mixed	1-2-3	def.		mixed	4-5-6
13		Skippers	2-3-4	def.		Mixed	1-5-6
14		Scarlet	1-2-5	def.		mixed	3-4-6
15		Mixed	1-2-4	def.		Mixed	3-5-6
16		mixed	3-4-6	def.		Skippers	1-2-5 DSQ,DSQ
17		Mixed	1-2-6	def.		Scarlet	3-4-5
18		Mixed	1-2-4	def.		Navy	3-5-6
19		Mixed	1-2-6	def.		Skippers	3-4-5
20		Navy	1-4-5	def.		Mixed	2-3-6 DNF
21		Mixed	1-2-3	def.		Scarlet	4-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Wayzata High School	Mixed	Aidan Burke '18 Emma Aubuchon '18 Wiley Hunt '19	Theo Odermann '21 Anna Brew '17 Jacob Sparber '20
	Stillwater High School	Mixed	Aidan Lundgren '21 Brian Olson '18 Luke Kurle '16	Aidan Lundgren '21 Katie Wallace '18 Luke Kurle '16 Brian Olson '18
	Orono High School	Scarlet	Isaac Pattison '17 Rachel Bartel '20 Seamus Hendrickson '20	Chase Blum '18 Louise Rosenbaum '20 Helen Mcdonnell '17
	Edina High School	mixed	Ben Ragus '20 George Moore '19 Grace Drought '19	Ben Ragus '20 Kate Higgins '18 Clare Leeper '19
	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	Henry Westlind '19 Michael Dowson '19 Sydney Maxwell '17	Rex Frazier '20 Rithvich Ramesh '17 Hannah Dillahunt '17
	Providence Academy	Navy	Claire Christianson '18 Eleanor Christianson '19 Jack Wall '17	Grace Cummins '16 Cierra Ramsay '16 Grace Van Dellen '18
	Minnetonka High School	Mixed	Garrett Moen '19 Mason Meccia '19 William Sweeney '20	Jack Bitney '15 Khan Nickel '20 Harrison Alderink '19