Stillwater High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.55 (fleet -0.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–1 (83%) as crew 5–1 (83%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–1 | 5–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 10–2 against 5.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-16 | MN Conference #2 Team Race | skipper | -0.14 | 2.24 | 5–1 | 2.9 | +2.38 | 2.6 | 8% |
| 2016-04-16 | MN Conference #2 Team Race | crew | -0.14 | 2.24 | 5–1 | 2.9 | +2.38 | 2.6 | 8% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Season | |||||
| MN Conference 1 - Fall 2019 | Skipper | A | 7 | 22.4 | -2.37 |
| MN Conference #4 | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.0 | -0.89 |
| Art Johnson Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 20.0 | -1.67 |
| Fall 2018 Season | |||||
| MN Conference Regatta #5 Fall 2018 | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.5 | -1.51 |
| MN Conference Regatta #3 Fall '18 | Skipper | A | 7 | 20.1 | — |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| Minnesota Conference #4 | Crew | A | 4 | 10.0 | — |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| MN Conference #2 Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Minnesota Conference Regatta Finale - Tier 3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.9 | 1.20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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