NJISA 2016 NJ State Championship

HostTRYC & OCC
Date05/21/2016
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	25	22	47
2	Ranney School	Panthers	31	16	47
3	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	22	33	55
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams	20	36	56
5	Toms River North	Mariners	21	46	67
6	Toms River South	Indians	46	40	86
7	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	53	36	89
8	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	59	50	109
9	Princeton High School	Little Tigers	52	58	110
10	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	64	64	128
11	Toms River East	Raiders	81	61	142
12	Chatham High School	Cougars	72	84	156

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	3	3	5	2	2	4	20	Emily Haig '17 Sam Westby '16
Toms River North	Mariners	10	1	2	3	3	1	1	21	Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	2	5	1	2	1	4	7	22	Michael Munger '16 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	4	2	4	4	4	5	2	25	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-7] Ryan Golding '16 [1-4] Ryan Mullins '19 [5-6] Chris Magno '17 [7]
Ranney School	Panthers	5	4	6	1	6	6	3	31	Cameron Giblin '19 Ava Atanacio '18
Toms River South	Indians	3	6	9	7	5	10	6	46	Lauren Zelenak '17 Carol Nunn '19
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	11	7	8	8	7	3	8	52	Nathan Drezner '16 Sophie Corrodi '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	8	10	5	6	8	7	9	53	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-4, 7] Margaret Maccormack '17 [5-6] Catherine Cooke '17 [1-2] Regina Vahey '18 [3-7]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	9	8	7	9	10	11	5	59	Thomas Quinn '18 Juliana Rustum '16
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	6	9	11	10	9	8	11	64	Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Fortier '19
Chatham High School	Cougars	7	11	12	12	11	9	10	72	Juliana Marino '16 [1-7] Jenna Huffman '16 [1-2] Marin Baumer '15 [3-7]
Toms River East	Raiders	12	12	10	11	12	12	12	81	Luke Dunton '18 Loring Dunton '18

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	1	1	2	5	2	2	3	16	Luke Arnone '19 Mari Patient '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	2	3	1	7	3	1	5	22	Michael Ehnot '18 Mark Iorio '16
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	4	2	10	2	4	7	4	33	Addie Sellig '16 Teddy Schroeder '16
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	6	5	3	5	6	8	36	Dana Haig '18 [1-2, 5-6] Tom Green '19 [3-4, 7] Tom Green '19 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Scales '16 [3-4, 7]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	7	9	4	1	9	1	36	Cole Banias '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Toms River South	Indians	7	4	3	1	11	5	9	40	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Toms River North	Mariners	9	5	4	9	10	3	6	46	Eddie Harrison '18 Mia Porter '18
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	11	10	11	6	6	4	2	50	Margot Murray '17 Sarah Elia '16
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	8	11	6	8	7	8	10	58	Ashley Dart '17 [1-2, 5-6] Harrison Barfield '17 [3-4, 7] Benjamin Drezner '19 [1-4, 7] Harrison Barfield '17 [5-6]
Toms River East	Raiders	6	8	7	10	9	10	11	61	Patrick Murray '19 Caroline Phillips '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	10	9	8	11	8	11	7	64	Molly Meehan '19 Caroline Greeley '17
Chatham High School	Cougars	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	84	Alexander Wilson '16 Jenna Huffman '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Chatham High School Cougars	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Princeton High School Little Tigers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Ranney School Panthers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	7	7	9	9	11	11	1
Southern Regional High School Rams	8	8	10	10	12	12	2
Summit High School Hilltoppers	9	9	11	11	1	1	3
Toms River East Raiders	10	10	12	12	2	2	4
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	1	1	3	3	5
Toms River South Indians	12	12	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Princeton High School Little Tigers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Ranney School Panthers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	9	9	11	11	1
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	10	10	12	12	2
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	11	11	1	1	3
Summit High School Hilltoppers	10	10	12	12	2	2	4
Toms River East Raiders	11	11	1	1	3	3	5
Toms River North Mariners	12	12	2	2	4	4	6
Toms River South Indians	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Chatham High School	Juliana Marino '16 [1-7]	Jenna Huffman '16 [1-2] Marin Baumer '15 [3-7]
Cougars	Alexander Wilson '16	Jenna Huffman '16
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-7]	Ryan Golding '16 [1-4] Ryan Mullins '19 [5-6] Chris Magno '17 [7]
Colts	Michael Ehnot '18	Mark Iorio '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-4, 7] Margaret Maccormack '17 [5-6]	Catherine Cooke '17 [1-2] Regina Vahey '18 [3-7]
Griffins	Cole Banias '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Princeton High School	Nathan Drezner '16	Sophie Corrodi '16
Little Tigers	Ashley Dart '17 [1-2, 5-6] Harrison Barfield '17 [3-4, 7]	Benjamin Drezner '19 [1-4, 7] Harrison Barfield '17 [5-6]
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	Ava Atanacio '18
Panthers	Luke Arnone '19	Mari Patient '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Caroline Fortier '19
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Caroline Greeley '17
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Bulldogs	Addie Sellig '16	Teddy Schroeder '16
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Sam Westby '16
Rams	Dana Haig '18 [1-2, 5-6] Tom Green '19 [3-4, 7]	Tom Green '19 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Scales '16 [3-4, 7]
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18	Juliana Rustum '16
Hilltoppers	Margot Murray '17	Sarah Elia '16
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Loring Dunton '18
Raiders	Patrick Murray '19	Caroline Phillips '17
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	James Koerner '17
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Mia Porter '18
Toms River South	Lauren Zelenak '17	Carol Nunn '19
Indians	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2016 NJ State Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes