NJISA 2016 Spring Fleet Championship

HostTRYC & OCC
Date04/09/2016
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	37	24	61
2	Ranney School	Panthers	48	17	65
3	Toms River North	Mariners	37	40	77
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	40	60	100
5	Southern Regional High School	Rams	54	53	107
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	69	44	113
7	Princeton High School	Little Tigers	78	86	164
8	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	79	95	174
9	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	105	88	193
10	Harriton High School	Rams	80	120	200
11	Toms River South	Indians	100	102	202

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	2	3	3	4	1	1	4	8	3	2	6	37	Joe Laforgia '17 Chris Magno '17
Toms River North	Mariners	6	7	1	5	4	5	1	2	2	3	1	37	Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	3	1	2	1	2	2	10	4	6	4	5	40	Michael Munger '16 [1-11] Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6] Teddy Schroeder '16 [7-11]
Ranney School	Panthers	9	2	4	2	7	4	3	1	8	5	3	48	Cameron Giblin '19 Ava Atanacio '18
Southern Regional High School	Rams	11	6	6	6	3	3	5	5	1	1	7	54	Emily Haig '17 [1-11] Paul Reiff '17 [1-6] Sam Westby '16 [7-11]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	10	9	8	3	5	6	9	7	4	6	2	69	Regina Vahey '18 [1-2] Erin Mcgarry '17 [3-11] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-2]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	5	10	5	8	8	11	2	6	5	8	10	78	Nathan Drezner '16 Ashley Dart '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	7	8	9	7	9	8	8	3	9	7	4	79	Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Fortier '19
Harriton High School	Rams	1	4	7	9	6	7	6	10	7	11	DNS	80	Benjamin Folds '16 Andela Barun '16
Toms River South	Indians	4	11	10	10	10	9	7	9	11	10	9	100	Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4, 9-11] Zach Higham '19 [5-8] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-6, 9-10] Lauren Zelenak '17 [7-8] Carol Nunn '19 [11]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	8	5	11	11	11	10	11	11	10	9	8	105	Mark Freidin '16 Sarah Parenti '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	1	1	1	1	3	3	1	1	2	2	1	17	Luke Arnone '19 Mari Patient '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	2	2	2	2	1	5	2	2	1	3	2	24	Michael Ehnot '18 Mark Iorio '16
Toms River North	Mariners	4	5	4	3	4	1	3	5	3	5	3	40	Eddie Harrison '18 Mia Porter '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	3	3	6	6	2	2	5	7	5	1	4	44	Cole Banias '17 Catherine Cooke '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	4	3	4	5	8	4	3	6	6	5	53	Dana Haig '18 [1-2, 5-6, 11] Tom Green '19 [3-4, 7-10] Sam Westby '16 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Scales '16 [3-4, 7-11]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	6	6	7	5	6	6	6	4	4	4	6	60	Addie Sellig '16 [1-11] Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-4] Jack Scott '18 [5-11]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	8	7	8	7	8	7	8	6	10	9	8	86	Harrison Barfield '17 Sophie Corrodi '16
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	7	10	11	10	9	4	7	9	7	7	7	88	Danny Kane '16 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	9	8	5	9	10	10	9	8	8	10	9	95	Molly Meehan '19 Caroline Greeley '17
Toms River South	Indians	11	9	9	8	7	9	11	11	9	8	10	102	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-6] Alexa Carles '19 [7-11] Alexa Carles '19 [1-6] Tabitha Paul '19 [7-10] Paige Zelenak '19 [11]
Harriton High School	Rams	10	11	10	11	11	11	10	10	DNS	DNS	DNS	120	Sarah Keefe '16 Alyse Lynch '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	1
Harriton High School Rams	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	2
Princeton High School Little Tigers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	1	1	3
Ranney School Panthers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	2	2	4
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	6	6	8	8	10	10	1	1	3	3	5
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	7	7	9	9	11	11	2	2	4	4	6
Southern Regional High School Rams	8	8	10	10	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Summit High School Hilltoppers	9	9	11	11	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Toms River North Mariners	10	10	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Toms River South Indians	11	11	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	1
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	2
Harriton High School Rams	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	1	1	3
Princeton High School Little Tigers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	2	2	4
Ranney School Panthers	6	6	8	8	10	10	1	1	3	3	5
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	9	9	11	11	2	2	4	4	6
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	10	10	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	11	11	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Summit High School Hilltoppers	10	10	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Toms River South Indians	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Chris Magno '17
Colts	Michael Ehnot '18	Mark Iorio '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Regina Vahey '18 [1-2] Erin Mcgarry '17 [3-11]	Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-2]
Griffins	Cole Banias '17	Catherine Cooke '17
Harriton High School	Benjamin Folds '16	Andela Barun '16
Rams	Sarah Keefe '16	Alyse Lynch '18
Princeton High School	Nathan Drezner '16	Ashley Dart '17
Little Tigers	Harrison Barfield '17	Sophie Corrodi '16
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	Ava Atanacio '18
Panthers	Luke Arnone '19	Mari Patient '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Caroline Fortier '19
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Caroline Greeley '17
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16 [1-11]	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6] Teddy Schroeder '16 [7-11]
Bulldogs	Addie Sellig '16 [1-11]	Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-4] Jack Scott '18 [5-11]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-11]	Paul Reiff '17 [1-6] Sam Westby '16 [7-11]
Rams	Dana Haig '18 [1-2, 5-6, 11] Tom Green '19 [3-4, 7-10]	Sam Westby '16 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Scales '16 [3-4, 7-11]
Summit High School	Mark Freidin '16	Sarah Parenti '17
Hilltoppers	Danny Kane '16	Kelsey Kennedy '18
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	James Koerner '17
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Mia Porter '18
Toms River South	Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4, 9-11] Zach Higham '19 [5-8]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-6, 9-10] Lauren Zelenak '17 [7-8] Carol Nunn '19 [11]
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-6] Alexa Carles '19 [7-11]	Alexa Carles '19 [1-6] Tabitha Paul '19 [7-10] Paige Zelenak '19 [11]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2016 Spring Fleet Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes