NJISA Wed Spring Series # 2

HostTRYC
Date03/23/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	7	18	25
2	Mariners	Mariners	13	14	27
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	17	15	32
4	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	23	11	34
5	Toms River South	Indians	15	25	40
6	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	22	22	44
7	Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	24	28	52
8	Central Regional High School	Eagles	39	22	61
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	30	32	62
10	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	30	33	63

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	3	2	1	7	Emily Haig '17 Burke Flynn '18
Mariners	Mariners	2	1	1	9	13
Toms River South	Indians	6	4	3	2	15	Joey Cashman '18 [1-4] Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	5	2	4	6	17	Joe Laforgia '17 Ryan Mullins '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	7	7	5	3	22	Michael Munger '16 [1-4] Marin Baumer '15 [1-2] Kate Swikart '19 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	3	9	7	4	23	Cole Banias '17 Catherine Cooke '17
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	4	5	8	7	24	Jack Ruggiero '16 Jake Roberts '16
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	8	6	8	30
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	10	6	9	5	30	Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Greeley '17
Central Regional High School	Eagles	9	10	10	10	39	Michnisky Thomas '16 Reilly Fitzgerald '18

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	3	2	1	11	Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Mariners	Mariners	2	5	4	3	14
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	7	1	5	2	15	Garret Boyan '17 Mark Iorio '16
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	4	8	5	18	Dana Haig '18 Michael Scales '16
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	3	7	3	9	22	Francesco Sgroi '16 [1-4] Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-2] Patrick Modin '19 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	6	6	6	4	22	Patience Harrington '17 Michnisky Thomas '16
Toms River South	Indians	8	2	9	6	25	Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Carol Nunn '19 [3-4]
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	10	10	1	7	28	Sophie Ruggiero '18 [1-2] Miya Preyer '19 [3-4] Blake Biundo '18 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	8	7	8	32
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	4	9	10	10	33	Molly Meehan '19 Shayn Lynch '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	18	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	15	15	15	15
Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls	14	14	14	14
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	13	13	13	13
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10
Mariners Mariners	9	9	9	9
Toms River South Indians	8	8	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	18	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	15	15	15	15
Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls	14	14	14	14
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	13	13	13	13
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10
Mariners Mariners	9	9	9	9
Toms River South Indians	8	8	8	8

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Michnisky Thomas '16	Reilly Fitzgerald '18
Eagles	Patience Harrington '17	Michnisky Thomas '16
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Ryan Mullins '19
Colts 1	Garret Boyan '17	Mark Iorio '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Cole Banias '17	Catherine Cooke '17
Griffins	Erin Mcgarry '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Jack Ruggiero '16	Jake Roberts '16
Garnett Gulls	Sophie Ruggiero '18 [1-2] Miya Preyer '19 [3-4]	Blake Biundo '18 [1-2]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Caroline Greeley '17
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Shayn Lynch '18
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16 [1-4]	Marin Baumer '15 [1-2] Kate Swikart '19 [3-4]
Bulldogs	Francesco Sgroi '16 [1-4]	Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-2] Patrick Modin '19 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Burke Flynn '18
Rams	Dana Haig '18	Michael Scales '16
Toms River South	Joey Cashman '18 [1-4]	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3-4]
Indians	Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Carol Nunn '19 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Wed Spring Series # 2

Division A

Division B

From the notes