NJISA 2017 Last Hurrah

HostTRYC & OCC
Date06/01/2017
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Panthers 1	Panthers 1	19	6	25
2	Bulldogs	Bulldogs	14	19	33
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	12	22	34
4	Toms River North	Mariners	19	23	42
5	Colts 1	Colts 1	28	32	60
6	Griffins	Griffins	23	44	67
7	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	40	33	73
8	Colts 2	Colts 2	19	56	75
9	Indians 2	Indians 2	33	50	83
10	Raiders	Raiders	68	15	83
11	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	38	47	85
12	Indians 1	Indians 1	47	41	88
13	Caseys	Caseys	47	46	93
14	Central Regional High School	Eagles	60	34	94
15	Colts 3	Colts 3	33	63	96
16	Cougars 1	Cougars 1	60	36	96
17	Cougars 2	Cougars 2	60	54	114
18	Panthers 2	Panthers 2	64	63	127

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	1	2	1	8	12
Bulldogs	Bulldogs	4	1	2	7	14
Toms River North	Mariners	2	3	10	4	19	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-2] James Koerner '17 [3-4] James Koerner '17 [1-2] Eddie Harrison '18 [3-4]
Panthers 1	Panthers 1	5	9	3	2	19
Colts 2	Colts 2	6	5	7	1	19
Griffins	Griffins	7	7	6	3	23
Colts 1	Colts 1	3	8	12	5	28
Indians 2	Indians 2	8	14	5	6	33
Colts 3	Colts 3	9	4	9	11	33
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	10	11	4	13	38	Emily Haig '17 [1-4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	12	6	13	9	40	Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Caseys	Caseys	11	10	14	12	47
Indians 1	Indians 1	13	12	8	14	47
Cougars 2	Cougars 2	14	17	11	18	60
Central Regional High School	Eagles	15	13	15	17	60	Condos Aristotle '20 Maxwell Bonanno '19
Cougars 1	Cougars 1	18	16	16	10	60
Panthers 2	Panthers 2	16	15	18	15	64
Raiders	Raiders	17	18	17	16	68

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Panthers 1	Panthers 1	1	3	1	1	6
Raiders	Raiders	8	1	4	2	15
Bulldogs	Bulldogs	4	5	5	5	19
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	2	2	6	12	22
Toms River North	Mariners	9	7	3	4	23	Eddie Harrison '18 [1-2] Mark Koerner '19 [3-4] Mark Koerner '19 [1-2] James Koerner '17 [3-4]
Colts 1	Colts 1	6	6	13	7	32
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	15	13	2	3	33	Margot Murray '17 William Przedpelski '17
Central Regional High School	Eagles	3	12	10	9	34	Willow Wahlers '17 Lauren Zelenak '17
Cougars 1	Cougars 1	5	9	8	14	36
Indians 1	Indians 1	18	4	11	8	41
Griffins	Griffins	7	8	16	13	44
Caseys	Caseys	14	14	7	11	46
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	11	11	15	10	47	Dana Haig '18 [1-4] No Show [1-2] Joe Mrazek '20 [3-4]
Indians 2	Indians 2	17	18	9	6	50
Cougars 2	Cougars 2	10	17	12	15	54
Colts 2	Colts 2	16	10	14	16	56
Colts 3	Colts 3	12	16	18	17	63
Panthers 2	Panthers 2	13	15	17	18	63

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Cougars 1 Cougars 1	2	2	2	2
Cougars 2 Cougars 2	3	3	3	3
Colts 1 Colts 1	4	4	4	4
Colts 2 Colts 2	5	5	5	5
Colts 3 Colts 3	6	6	6	6
Griffins Griffins	7	7	7	7
Panthers 1 Panthers 1	8	8	8	8
Panthers 2 Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Caseys Caseys	10	10	10	10
Bulldogs Bulldogs	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	13	13	13	13
Summit High School Hilltoppers	14	14	14	14
Raiders Raiders	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Indians 1 Indians 1	17	17	17	17
Indians 2 Indians 2	18	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Cougars 1 Cougars 1	2	2	2	2
Cougars 2 Cougars 2	3	3	3	3
Colts 1 Colts 1	4	4	4	4
Colts 2 Colts 2	5	5	5	5
Colts 3 Colts 3	6	6	6	6
Griffins Griffins	7	7	7	7
Panthers 1 Panthers 1	8	8	8	8
Panthers 2 Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Caseys Caseys	10	10	10	10
Bulldogs Bulldogs	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	13	13	13	13
Summit High School Hilltoppers	14	14	14	14
Raiders Raiders	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Indians 1 Indians 1	17	17	17	17
Indians 2 Indians 2	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Condos Aristotle '20	Maxwell Bonanno '19
Eagles	Willow Wahlers '17	Lauren Zelenak '17
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Rams 1	Dana Haig '18 [1-4]	No Show [1-2] Joe Mrazek '20 [3-4]
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18	Kelsey Kennedy '18
Hilltoppers	Margot Murray '17	William Przedpelski '17
Toms River North	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-2] James Koerner '17 [3-4]	James Koerner '17 [1-2] Eddie Harrison '18 [3-4]
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18 [1-2] Mark Koerner '19 [3-4]	Mark Koerner '19 [1-2] James Koerner '17 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2017 Last Hurrah

Division A

Division B

From the notes