SAISA North Points #4

HostUnregistered-SAISA
Date02/25/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Wando	Wando Warriors	18	7	25
2	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	26	26	52
3	Beaufort High School	Varsity	16	49	65
4	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	37	39	76
5	SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	37	49	86
6	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	55	31	86
7	Myers Park High School	Mustangs	53	35	88
8	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	36	58	94
9	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	50	44	94
10	John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	54	44	98
11	Ashley Hall	Panthers	66	62	128
12	Glynn Academy	Varsity	81	51	132
13	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	53	100	153
14	Bishop England High School	Bishops	78	80	158
15	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	69	97	166
16	Pamlico County High School	Hurricanes	88	80	168

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Beaufort High School	Varsity	7	1	4	1	2	1	16	Walter Gnann '17 Austin (A.J.) Myers '18
Wando	Wando Warriors	3	5	3	3	1	3	18	Austin Ando '17 [1-6] Caroline Main '18 [1-2] Austin Googer '17 [3-6]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	5	3	1	2	3	12	26	Joey Chomyn '19 William Chapman '18
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	6	7	5	10	4	4	36	Michael Lane '17 [1-6] Sadie Ingram '17 [1-2] Abby Sides '19 [3-6]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	2	6	7	6	9	7	37	Sarah Deloach '17 Caroline Keinath '17
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	RAF	2	2	7	7	2	37	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-6] Jenna Stephens '18 [1-2] Caden Wilson '20 [3-6]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	8	11	8	4	11	8	50	Matthew Chenard '17 Evan Chenard '20
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	1	4	6	16	10	16	53	Adam Larson '19 Gantt Renner '19
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	4	9	11	5	15	9	53	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-6] Polk Baggett '22 [1-2] Kate Smith '19 [3-6]
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	9	15	9	9	6	6	54	Scott Harris '18 Cooper Whitehead '18
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	10	8	10	8	8	11	55	Croix Farmer '17 [1-6] Lindsey Hanckel '17 [1-2] Bobby Baker '18 [3-6]
Ashley Hall	Panthers	14	10	12	15	5	10	66	Ann Sheridan '18 [1-6] Scout Taylor '17 [1-2] Mary Hope Chakeris '18 [3-6]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	13	12	16	11	12	5	69	Connor Young '17 Caelan Paquette '20
Bishop England High School	Bishops	11	13	14	12	14	14	78	Carter Beall '18 Arianna Borkowski '20
Glynn Academy	Varsity	15	14	13	13	13	13	81	Alex Graiser '18 Brooke Zell '20
Pamlico County High School	Hurricanes	12	16	15	14	16	15	88	Caroline James '19 Emmie James '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Wando	Wando Warriors	1	1	1	1	2	1	7	Jamie Renneker '18 Jack Sutton '18
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	7	5	3	2	7	2	26	Neil Walters '20 [1-6] Robert Turner '18 [1-4] Alex Lopez Vara '18 [5-6]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	4	9	5	7	3	3	31	Jordan Newland '18 Megan Fetterley '19
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	2	12	2	5	4	10	35	Kenny Corsig '19 Will Dobrowski '19
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	11	11	6	4	1	6	39	Luke Volk '17 Sammy Choufanni '17
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	3	14	10	8	5	4	44	Wiley Spignoli '17 Sean Harris '20
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	12	6	4	3	11	8	44	Jacob Thompson '18 Declan O'Dell '18
Beaufort High School	Varsity	5	3	8	9	DNF	7	49	Jacob Lawson '18 [1-6] Sarah Suber '18 [1-2] Edmund Mccalister '20 [3-6]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	10	13	9	6	6	5	49	Keara Paquette '17 [1-6] Frances Hart '19 [1-2] Mccormick Emge '18 [3-4] Bridget Conley '17 [5-6]
Glynn Academy	Varsity	6	4	12	10	8	11	51	Sarah Weese '20 Olivia Pruitt '17
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	9	8	11	12	9	9	58	Elizabeth Tompkins '17 [1-2] Chandler Cunningham '17 [3-4] Cade Hughes '18 [5-6] Cade Hughes '18 [1-4] Jacob Winters '17 [5-6]
Ashley Hall	Panthers	8	2	7	11	DNS	DNS	62	Julianna Skoglund '19 Scout Taylor '17
Pamlico County High School	Hurricanes	13	10	13	RAF	10	DNF	80	Mason Caroon '18 Tyrese Branch '20
Bishop England High School	Bishops	RAF	7	14	13	DNF	12	80	Daniel Henesy '18 Erin O'Connor '20
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	14	15	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	97	Sarah Harrington '18 Cassie Brisbin '20
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	15	RAF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	100	Polk Baggett '22 Gavin Bahner '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	2	2	3	3
Ashley Hall Panthers	2	2	3	3	4	4
Beaufort High School Varsity	3	3	4	4	5	5
Bishop England High School Bishops	4	4	5	5	6	6
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	5	5	6	6	7	7
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity	15	15	16	16	1	1
Glynn Academy Varsity	6	6	7	7	8	8
James Island Charter High School Varsity	7	7	8	8	9	9
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	8	8	9	9	10	10
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	10	10	11	11
Myers Park High School Mustangs	10	10	11	11	12	12
Pamlico County High School Hurricanes	11	11	12	12	13	13
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	12	12	13	13	14	14
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	13	13	14	14	15	15
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	14	14	15	15	16	16
Wando Wando Warriors	16	16	1	1	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	9	9	10	10	11	11
Ashley Hall Panthers	10	10	11	11	12	12
Beaufort High School Varsity	11	11	12	12	13	13
Bishop England High School Bishops	12	12	13	13	14	14
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	13	13	14	14	15	15
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity	7	7	8	8	9	9
Glynn Academy Varsity	14	14	15	15	16	16
James Island Charter High School Varsity	15	15	16	16	1	1
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	16	16	1	1	2	2
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	1	1	2	2	3	3
Myers Park High School Mustangs	2	2	3	3	4	4
Pamlico County High School Hurricanes	3	3	4	4	5	5
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	4	4	5	5	6	6
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	5	5	6	6	7	7
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	6	6	7	7	8	8
Wando Wando Warriors	8	8	9	9	10	10

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Connor Young '17	Caelan Paquette '20
Raptors A	Sarah Harrington '18	Cassie Brisbin '20
Ashley Hall	Ann Sheridan '18 [1-6]	Scout Taylor '17 [1-2] Mary Hope Chakeris '18 [3-6]
Panthers	Julianna Skoglund '19	Scout Taylor '17
Beaufort High School	Walter Gnann '17	Austin (A.J.) Myers '18
Varsity	Jacob Lawson '18 [1-6]	Sarah Suber '18 [1-2] Edmund Mccalister '20 [3-6]
Bishop England High School	Carter Beall '18	Arianna Borkowski '20
Bishops	Daniel Henesy '18	Erin O'Connor '20
Cape Fear Academy	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-6]	Polk Baggett '22 [1-2] Kate Smith '19 [3-6]
CFA Varsity	Polk Baggett '22	Gavin Bahner '22
Glynn Academy	Alex Graiser '18	Brooke Zell '20
Varsity	Sarah Weese '20	Olivia Pruitt '17
James Island Charter High School	Croix Farmer '17 [1-6]	Lindsey Hanckel '17 [1-2] Bobby Baker '18 [3-6]
Varsity	Jordan Newland '18	Megan Fetterley '19
John T. Hoggard High School	Scott Harris '18	Cooper Whitehead '18
Hoggard	Wiley Spignoli '17	Sean Harris '20
Lake Norman High School	Matthew Chenard '17	Evan Chenard '20
Wildcats	Jacob Thompson '18	Declan O'Dell '18
Myers Park High School	Adam Larson '19	Gantt Renner '19
Mustangs	Kenny Corsig '19	Will Dobrowski '19
Pamlico County High School	Caroline James '19	Emmie James '20
Hurricanes	Mason Caroon '18	Tyrese Branch '20
Pine Lake Prep	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-6]	Jenna Stephens '18 [1-2] Caden Wilson '20 [3-6]
Varsity	Luke Volk '17	Sammy Choufanni '17
Porter-Gaud School	Joey Chomyn '19	William Chapman '18
Varsity	Neil Walters '20 [1-6]	Robert Turner '18 [1-4] Alex Lopez Vara '18 [5-6]
Richmond Hill High School	Michael Lane '17 [1-6]	Sadie Ingram '17 [1-2] Abby Sides '19 [3-6]
Varsity	Elizabeth Tompkins '17 [1-2] Chandler Cunningham '17 [3-4] Cade Hughes '18 [5-6]	Cade Hughes '18 [1-4] Jacob Winters '17 [5-6]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	Sarah Deloach '17	Caroline Keinath '17
SOA Varsity	Keara Paquette '17 [1-6]	Frances Hart '19 [1-2] Mccormick Emge '18 [3-4] Bridget Conley '17 [5-6]
Wando	Austin Ando '17 [1-6]	Caroline Main '18 [1-2] Austin Googer '17 [3-6]
Wando Warriors	Jamie Renneker '18	Jack Sutton '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA North Points #4

Division A

Division B

From the notes