Silver NorCal #6 LD

HostSir Francis Drake
Date03/26/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 2	21	21
2	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	23	23
3	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 1	28	28
4	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	51	51
5	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	57	57
6	Stevenson School	Pirates	66	66
7	Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 3	68	68
8	Encinal High School	Jets	68	68
9	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	70	70
10	Benicia High School	Storm	70	70
11	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	72	72
12	Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	76	76
13	The Urban School	Blues	81	81
14	Alameda High School	Hornets	85	85
15	Harbor High School	Pirates	91	91
16	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	97	97
17	Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	106	106
18	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	107	107
19	Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	116	116
20	Athenian	Owls	121	121

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 2	4	2	3	2	4	2	4	21	Gabriella Schmidt '18 Carolyne Ikeda '19
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	8	3	1	3	3	3	2	23	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 [1-3, 7] Keilah Stypulkoski '19 [4-6] Keilah Stypulkoski '19 [1-3, 7] Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 [4-6]
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 1	11	1	2	1	11	1	1	28	Mackenzie Berwick '18 Daria Bubnova '20
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	3	4	4	5	14	7	14	51	Max Rodman '18 Natalie Leger '17
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	2	10	13	8	13	4	7	57	Michael Zheng '19 Andrew Zheng '19
Stevenson School	Pirates	5	20	16	13	1	5	6	66	Kay Du '18 Susanna Yan '18
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 3	10	9	8	6	15	11	9	68	Sophia Zaleski '18 George Kripac '17
Encinal High School	Jets	13	5	18	7	5	9	11	68	Lily Imani '20 Jordan Imani '21
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	1	13	19	10	7	8	12	70	Nickolas Monrique '19 [1, 3, 5, 7] Joshua Holzer '19 [2, 4, 6] Megan Engelbrechten '19 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Benicia High School	Storm	15	8	5	16	6	10	10	70	Jamie Sarkany '16 Julian Sarkany '16
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	DNS	12	7	4	2	DNF	5	72	Nelea Fong '20 Rachel Hollet '20
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	9	7	6	14	10	13	17	76	Noah Sanders '18 Cole Williams '20
The Urban School	Blues	14	11	10	11	16	16	3	81	Anna Krylova '20 Eli Gordon '20
Alameda High School	Hornets	7	6	DNF	20	17	6	8	85	Gemma Hanson '19 Casey Tolen '17
Harbor High School	Pirates	6	17	9	18	9	19	13	91	Chloe Long '19 Kelsey Hill '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	19	19	14	9	8	12	16	97	Alex Meislich '19 Hana Curphey '20
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	12	18	12	15	20	14	15	106	Noelle Scheer '18 Elise Nicol '18
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	17	14	11	12	18	17	18	107	Jonah Benningfield '20 Derek Kuno-Williams '20
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	16	15	17	17	12	18	DNF	116	Alexander Nunez '20 Chandler Moseley '20
Athenian	Owls	18	16	15	19	19	15	19	121	Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-7] Julieanna Fajardo '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jackson Yeomans '18 [3-4, 7]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Alameda High School Hornets	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
Benicia High School Storm	59	59	59	59	59	59	59
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Convent and Stuart Hall Cubs	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Encinal High School Jets	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Harbor High School Pirates	109	109	109	109	109	109	109
Lynbrook High School Vikings	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Marin Catholic Wildcats	135	135	135	135	135	135	135
Sir Francis Drake Pirates 1	67	67	67	67	67	67	67
Sir Francis Drake Pirates 2	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Sir Francis Drake Pirates 3	61	61	61	61	61	61	61
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Wildcats 1	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Wildcats 2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Stevenson School Pirates	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	133	133	133	133	133	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	79	79	79	79	79	79	79
Athenian Owls	57	57	57	57	57	57	57
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
The Urban School Blues	141	141	141	141	141	141	141

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Hornets	Gemma Hanson '19	Casey Tolen '17
Athenian	Owls	Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-7]	Julieanna Fajardo '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jackson Yeomans '18 [3-4, 7]
Benicia High School	Storm	Jamie Sarkany '16	Julian Sarkany '16
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	Max Rodman '18	Natalie Leger '17
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	Alexander Nunez '20	Chandler Moseley '20
Encinal High School	Jets	Lily Imani '20	Jordan Imani '21
Harbor High School	Pirates	Chloe Long '19	Kelsey Hill '19
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	Nelea Fong '20	Rachel Hollet '20
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	Michael Zheng '19	Andrew Zheng '19
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 [1-3, 7] Keilah Stypulkoski '19 [4-6]	Keilah Stypulkoski '19 [1-3, 7] Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 [4-6]
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	Noah Sanders '18	Cole Williams '20
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	Noelle Scheer '18	Elise Nicol '18
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 3	Sophia Zaleski '18	George Kripac '17
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 1	Mackenzie Berwick '18	Daria Bubnova '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats 2	Gabriella Schmidt '18	Carolyne Ikeda '19
Stevenson School	Pirates	Kay Du '18	Susanna Yan '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Alex Meislich '19	Hana Curphey '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Nickolas Monrique '19 [1, 3, 5, 7] Joshua Holzer '19 [2, 4, 6]	Megan Engelbrechten '19 [1, 3, 5, 7]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Jonah Benningfield '20	Derek Kuno-Williams '20
The Urban School	Blues	Anna Krylova '20	Eli Gordon '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Silver NorCal #6 LD

Division A

From the notes