2017-18 PCISA SoCal 4 Silver

HostAlamitos Bay Yacht Club
Date02/03/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#		School	Team	A	TOT
1		Newport Harbor High School	Sailors	37	37
2		Parker	Parker 2	48	48
3		Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	55	55
4	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 3	67	67
5		Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Jackrabbits	68	68
6	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 2	78	78
7		Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 2	87	87
8		Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 1	97	97
9		Bishop's School	Knights	103	103
10		Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	114	114
11		California Academy of Mathematics and Science	California Academy o	132	132
12		San Clemente High School	Triton	158	158
13	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 1	158	158
14		Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 1	160	160
15		Parker	Parker 1	169	169
16		Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 3	174	174
17		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	184	184
18		JSerra Catholic High School	Lions 2	197	197
19		Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 2	199	199
20		Port of Los Angeles High School	Polar Bears	208	208
21		Sage Hill School	Lightning 2	219	219
22		Redondo Union High School	Sea Hawks	221	221
23		JSerra Catholic High School	Lions 1	235	235
24		Parker	Parker 3	236	236
25		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	244	244
26		Sage Hill School	Lightning 1	297	297

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
	Newport Harbor High School	Sailors	8	3	3	4	3	3	1	1	1	7	3	37	Jack Roman '22 Andrew Ingham '21
	Parker	Parker 2	1	1	2	2	2	1	3	3	OCS	4	2	48	Mackenzie Harris '22 Luca Bonnano '21
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	2	4	1	1	1	2	2	5	OCS	2	8	55	George Soliman '20 Kyla Mclay '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 3	3	2	11	9	8	9	8	2	3	3	9	67	Nikhil Stewart '21 Diego Lockyer '21
	Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Jackrabbits	10	12	6	6	5	6	4	4	5	6	4	68	Tristan Feves '22 Kayla Maguire '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 2	4	7	9	13	10	7	6	6	4	5	7	78	Elisabeth Rossbach '21 Elissa Martinez '19
	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 2	5	5	10	10	7	4	15	7	10	8	6	87	Gordon Withrow '21 Jillian Marquez '21
	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 1	9	10	12	5	9	8	9	11	9	10	5	97	Ryan Davis '19 Miles Evans '21
	Bishop's School	Knights	11	8	5	8	13	12	5	10	8	11	12	103	Joshua Pelletier '20 Lila Chitayat '21
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	21	15	13	14	19	13	7	8	2	1	1	114	Matthew Sun '20
	California Academy of Mathematics and Science	California Academy o	14	14	8	7	14	14	11	14	11	12	13	132	Zoe Storaasli '17 Zoe Storaasli '17
	San Clemente High School	Triton	6	11	4	3	4	10	12	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	158	Hannah Carter '20 Teagan Howard '20
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 1	12	RAF	21	15	12	17	14	9	6	9	16	158	Troy Davidson '20 Owen Smith '21
	Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 1	17	21	16	11	6	5	18	12	OCS	16	11	160	Carsen Lenthall '20 Riley Lenthall '22
	Parker	Parker 1	16	18	7	12	16	18	17	16	15	17	17	169	Ben Dorsey '18 Radha Carollo '20
	Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 3	15	6	14	19	21	20	10	22	14	19	14	174	Tyler Welk '20 Christopher Samia '20
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	19	13	17	18	11	11	13	21	18	23	20	184	Bryson Dort '19 Campbell Biemiller '20
	JSerra Catholic High School	Lions 2	18	23	19	16	15	16	19	17	17	14	23	197	Jared Schafer '21 Jack Stanley '21
	Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 2	7	9	15	17	DNS	DNS	DNF	15	OCS	13	15	199	Jacqueline Mullen '19 Marilyn Salome '20
	Port of Los Angeles High School	Polar Bears	20	16	20	23	17	15	20	19	13	DSQ	18	208	James Sawyer '21 Patrick Garrett '21
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	23	16	13	7	15	10	219	Eamon Niknafs '19 Ian Grimm '20
	Redondo Union High School	Sea Hawks	13	19	18	21	18	21	DNF	24	20	18	22	221	Alex Akstens '22 Dylan Dean '22
	JSerra Catholic High School	Lions 1	22	22	DNF	20	20	19	DNF	18	16	20	24	235	Gordy Foerstel '20 Patrick Bayeh '20
	Parker	Parker 3	23	17	23	22	22	24	DNF	23	12	22	21	236	Eliana Ashley '23 Caeden Mujahed '21
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	DNF	20	22	24	23	22	DNF	20	19	21	19	244	Maddie Biemiller '20 Julia Allen '19
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 1	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	297	Daniel Gamini '19 Aiden Aruizu '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
	California Academy of Mathematics and Science California Academy o	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82	82
	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79
	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
	Dana Hills High School Dolphins 1	124	124	124	124	124	124	124	124	124	124	124
	Dana Hills High School Dolphins 2	119	119	119	119	119	119	119	119	119	119	119
	Dana Hills High School Dolphins 3	68	68	68	68	68	68	68	68	68	68	68
	Parker Parker 1	92	92	92	92	92	92	92	92	92	92	92
	Parker Parker 2	91	91	91	91	91	91	91	91	91	91	91
	Parker Parker 3	93	93	93	93	93	93	93	93	93	93	93
	JSerra Catholic High School Lions 1	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123
	JSerra Catholic High School Lions 2	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121
	Long Beach Polytechnic HS Jackrabbits	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88
	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
	Port of Los Angeles High School Polar Bears	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95	95
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89
	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	911	911	911	911	911	911	911	911	911	911	911
	Sage Hill School Lightning 1	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	Sage Hill School Lightning 2	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90
	San Clemente High School Triton	107	107	107	107	107	107	107	107	107	107	107
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon 1	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon 2	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon 3	191	191	191	191	191	191	191	191	191	191	191
	Bishop's School Knights	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1	84	84	84	84	84	84	84	84	84	84	84
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85

	School	Team	Skipper	Crew
	Bishop's School	Knights	Joshua Pelletier '20	Lila Chitayat '21
	California Academy of Mathematics and Science	California Academy o	Zoe Storaasli '17	Zoe Storaasli '17
	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 1	Ryan Davis '19	Miles Evans '21
	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings 2	Gordon Withrow '21	Jillian Marquez '21
	Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 1	Carsen Lenthall '20	Riley Lenthall '22
	Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 2	Jacqueline Mullen '19	Marilyn Salome '20
	Dana Hills High School	Dolphins 3	Tyler Welk '20	Christopher Samia '20
	JSerra Catholic High School	Lions 1	Gordy Foerstel '20	Patrick Bayeh '20
	JSerra Catholic High School	Lions 2	Jared Schafer '21	Jack Stanley '21
	Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Jackrabbits	Tristan Feves '22	Kayla Maguire '21
	Newport Harbor High School	Sailors	Jack Roman '22	Andrew Ingham '21
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	George Soliman '20	Kyla Mclay '21
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	Matthew Sun '20
	Parker	Parker 1	Ben Dorsey '18	Radha Carollo '20
	Parker	Parker 2	Mackenzie Harris '22	Luca Bonnano '21
	Parker	Parker 3	Eliana Ashley '23	Caeden Mujahed '21
	Port of Los Angeles High School	Polar Bears	James Sawyer '21	Patrick Garrett '21
	Redondo Union High School	Sea Hawks	Alex Akstens '22	Dylan Dean '22
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 1	Daniel Gamini '19	Aiden Aruizu '20
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 2	Eamon Niknafs '19	Ian Grimm '20
	San Clemente High School	Triton	Hannah Carter '20	Teagan Howard '20
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 1	Troy Davidson '20	Owen Smith '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 2	Elisabeth Rossbach '21	Elissa Martinez '19
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon 3	Nikhil Stewart '21	Diego Lockyer '21
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	Maddie Biemiller '20	Julia Allen '19
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	Bryson Dort '19	Campbell Biemiller '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2017-18 PCISA SoCal 4 Silver

Division A

From the notes