| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Orono High School | Spartans | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Mahtomedi | Zephyrs | 3–5 |
| 4 |  |
Edina High School | Varsity | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Southwest High School | Varsity | 2–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,024 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 20 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.412 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.50 ± 0.53: a typical event, more orderly than 77% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers | 1 | 5.59 school −0.39, home +0.10 | Nate Olmsted / Annika Irene 2.00 Graham Ness / Rowan O'Connell 1.93 Matthew Kickhafer / Audrey Cote 1.85 | 84% | 8–0 (100%) | +1.2 |
| 2 | Orono High School Spartans | 2 | 4.41 school −0.22 | Rachel Bartel / Chase Blum 1.93 Seamus Hendrickson / Jack (Henry) Strommen 1.58 4–2 Archie Bolgar / Louise Rosenbaum 1.09 3–3 Archie Bolgar / Tyra Pranger 0.93 2–0 Seamus Hendrickson / Tyra Pranger 1.61 1–1 | 64% | 5–3 (62%) | −0.1 |
| 3 | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | 3 | 3.10 school +0.29 | Clara Brown / Rasmus Gantriis Cole Barre / Anika Liner Genna Viggiano / Delaney Mallin | 38% | 3–5 (38%) | −0.0 |
| 4 | Edina High School Varsity | 5 | 2.65 school +0.16 | George Moore / Reilly Hannula 1.21 Kate Higgins / Gracie Drought Alexandre Cholat / Lauren Rerat | 29% | 2–6 (25%) | −0.3 |
| 5 | Southwest High School Varsity | 4 | 2.97 school +0.14 | Calvin Lamosse / Gints Pelecis Nicole Giuliani / Mason Pirner Thomas Jagielski / Natasha Levy 0.65 | 35% | 2–6 (25%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 5.59 | 8.59 | 8–0 | 6.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| 3 | Mahtomedi | 3.10 | 3.06 | 3–5 | 3.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2 | Orono High School | 4.41 | 4.30 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 4 | Edina High School | 2.65 | 2.39 | 2–6 | 2.3 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 5 | Southwest High School | 2.97 | 2.29 | 2–6 | 2.8 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Olmsted | Minnetonka High School | 2.00 | 5.00 | 8–0 | 6.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| Archie Bolgar | Orono High School | 1.09 | 0.98 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Kate Higgins | Edina High School | 0.70 | 0.43 | 2–6 | 2.3 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Alexandre Cholat | Edina High School | 0.36 | 0.10 | 2–6 | 2.3 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 73% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 70% | |
| 1 | 2 | Mahtomedi | Edina High School | 59% | |
| 1 | 3 | Minnetonka High School | Southwest High School | 90% | |
| 1 | 4 | Orono High School | Mahtomedi | 73% | |
| 1 | 5 | Edina High School | Southwest High School | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Minnetonka High School | Mahtomedi | 88% | |
| 1 | 7 | Orono High School | Edina High School | 81% | |
| 1 | 8 | Mahtomedi | Southwest High School | 54% | |
| 1 | 9 | Minnetonka High School | Edina High School | 91% | |
| 1 | 10 | Orono High School | Southwest High School | 76% | |
| 2 | 11 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 71% | |
| 2 | 12 | Mahtomedi | Edina High School | 59% | |
| 2 | 13 | Minnetonka High School | Southwest High School | 88% | |
| 2 | 14 | Orono High School | Mahtomedi | 72% | |
| 2 | 15 | Edina High School | Southwest High School | 44% | upset |
| 2 | 16 | Minnetonka High School | Mahtomedi | 87% | |
| 2 | 17 | Orono High School | Edina High School | 80% | |
| 2 | 18 | Southwest High School | Mahtomedi | 47% | upset |
| 2 | 19 | Minnetonka High School | Edina High School | 90% | |
| 2 | 20 | Southwest High School | Orono High School | 25% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Zephyrs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Zephyrs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Zephyrs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Graham Ness '19 Matthew Kickhafer '19 Nate Olmsted '19 |
Rowan O'Connell '20 Audrey Cote '20 Annika Irene '19 |
|
Orono High School | Spartans | Archie Bolgar '19 Rachel Bartel '20 Seamus Hendrickson '21 |
Louise Rosenbaum '20 Tyra Pranger '21 Chase Blum '18 Jack (Henry) Strommen '21 |
|
Mahtomedi | Zephyrs | Clara Brown '18 Cole Barre '21 Genna Viggiano '18 |
Rasmus Gantriis '21 Anika Liner '21 Delaney Mallin '21 |
|
Edina High School | Varsity | Alexandre Cholat '22 George Moore '19 Kate Higgins '18 |
Lauren Rerat '19 Reilly Hannula '19 Gracie Drought '19 |
|
Southwest High School | Varsity | Calvin Lamosse '21 Nicole Giuliani '20 Thomas Jagielski '18 |
Gints Pelecis '21 Mason Pirner '21 Natasha Levy '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
