Rickover Regatta

HostHyman G. Rickover Na
Date05/05/2018
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	9	9
2	New Trier HS	Trevian 4	13	13
3	New Trier HS	Trevian 1	22	22
4	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	22	22
5	Lake Forest High School	Scouts 3	24	24
6	Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	30	30
7	New Trier HS	Trevian 3	33	33
8	New Trier HS	Trevian 2	34	34
9	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	39	39
10	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	40	40
11	Jones College Prep	Eagles 3	42	42
12	Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	45	45
13	New Trier HS	Trevian 5	49	49
14	Jones College Prep	Eagles 2	49	49
15	Loyola Academy	Ramblers 4	62	62
16	Loyola Academy	Ramblers 3	64	64
17	Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy	Varsity 2	66	66
18	Jones College Prep	Eagles 1	67	67
19	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	71	71
20	Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy	Varsity 1	74	74
21	Loyola Academy	Ramblers 2	77	77
22	Loyola Academy	Ramblers 1	84	84

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	1	6	1	1	9	Chapman Petersen '22 Jack Baldwin '22
New Trier HS	Trevian 4	3	2	3	5	13	Henry Merrilees '20 Sarah Trunsky '21
New Trier HS	Trevian 1	5	1	12	4	22	Ted Lutton '20 Sammy Stoeber '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	10	5	4	3	22	Cecily Marden '21 Kate Gallagher '21
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 3	4	7	7	6	24	Luke Ackerman '20 Mimi Sexton '26
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	DNF	3	2	2	30
New Trier HS	Trevian 3	2	11	13	7	33	Davis Alvarado '20 Nick Leamon '20
New Trier HS	Trevian 2	11	8	6	9	34	Maureen Kelly '19 Alex Adams '20
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	9	9	5	16	39	Christian Prendergast '24 Reyna Puri '22
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	14	10	8	8	40	Matt Bussey '20 [1-4] Tim Mooney '21 [1-3] Elliot Robinson '21 [4]
Jones College Prep	Eagles 3	7	12	11	12	42	Emily Kowal '20 Ben Sherman '21
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	6	14	14	11	45	Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 Lauren Mellinger '21
New Trier HS	Trevian 5	8	4	20	17	49	Alex Rietz '20 Paris Levin '20
Jones College Prep	Eagles 2	13	16	10	10	49	Tristian Tucker '22 Ben Portnoy '21
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 4	15	19	9	19	62	Kevin Barrett '20 [1] Jimmy Noteman '19 [2-4] Jimmy Noteman '19 [1] Kevin Barrett '20 [2] Olivia Norton '20 [3-4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 3	16	17	16	15	64	Kevin Barrett '20 [1-2] Jimmy Noteman '19 [3-4] Andrew Langrill '19 [1-2] Jack Danis '19 [3-4]
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy	Varsity 2	12	DNF	18	13	66	Natalie Amaro '18 Jackie Aparicio '20
Jones College Prep	Eagles 1	19	13	21	14	67	Molly Sheridan '21 Michael Stewart '21
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	17	15	19	20	71	Miles Ford '20 [1-4] Toby Riecke '21 [1-3] Tim Mooney '21 [4]
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy	Varsity 1	18	DNF	15	18	74	Richard Sanisaca '20 Maritza Lara '18
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 2	21	18	17	21	77	Jimmy Surgrue '18 [1-3] Kevin Barrett '20 [4] Colin Mccabe '19 [1-2] Andrew Langrill '19 [3-4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 1	20	20	22	22	84	Katherine Lestingi '18 [1-4] Kate Naughton '20 [1-2, 4] Leilani O'Toole '20 [3]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1	21	21	21	21
Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2	11	11	11	11
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy Varsity 1	13	13	13	13
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy Varsity 2	22	22	22	22
Jones College Prep Eagles 1	6	6	6	6
Jones College Prep Eagles 2	2	2	2	2
Jones College Prep Eagles 3	19	19	19	19
Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	17	17	17	17
Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	9	9	9	9
Lake Forest High School Scouts 3	5	5	5	5
Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	10	10	10	10
Latin School of Chicago Romans	12	12	12	12
Loyola Academy Ramblers 1	1	1	1	1
Loyola Academy Ramblers 2	4	4	4	4
Loyola Academy Ramblers 3	18	18	18	18
Loyola Academy Ramblers 4	3	3	3	3
New Trier HS Trevian 1	8	8	8	8
New Trier HS Trevian 2	16	16	16	16
New Trier HS Trevian 3	14	14	14	14
New Trier HS Trevian 4	7	7	7	7
New Trier HS Trevian 5	15	15	15	15
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	20	20	20	20

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	Miles Ford '20 [1-4]	Toby Riecke '21 [1-3] Tim Mooney '21 [4]
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	Matt Bussey '20 [1-4]	Tim Mooney '21 [1-3] Elliot Robinson '21 [4]
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy	Varsity 1	Richard Sanisaca '20	Maritza Lara '18
Hyman G. Rickover Naval Academy	Varsity 2	Natalie Amaro '18	Jackie Aparicio '20
Jones College Prep	Eagles 1	Molly Sheridan '21	Michael Stewart '21
Jones College Prep	Eagles 2	Tristian Tucker '22	Ben Portnoy '21
Jones College Prep	Eagles 3	Emily Kowal '20	Ben Sherman '21
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	Chapman Petersen '22	Jack Baldwin '22
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 3	Luke Ackerman '20	Mimi Sexton '26
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	Audra Spokas-Jaros '21	Lauren Mellinger '21
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	Christian Prendergast '24	Reyna Puri '22
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 1	Katherine Lestingi '18 [1-4]	Kate Naughton '20 [1-2, 4] Leilani O'Toole '20 [3]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 2	Jimmy Surgrue '18 [1-3] Kevin Barrett '20 [4]	Colin Mccabe '19 [1-2] Andrew Langrill '19 [3-4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 3	Kevin Barrett '20 [1-2] Jimmy Noteman '19 [3-4]	Andrew Langrill '19 [1-2] Jack Danis '19 [3-4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 4	Kevin Barrett '20 [1] Jimmy Noteman '19 [2-4]	Jimmy Noteman '19 [1] Kevin Barrett '20 [2] Olivia Norton '20 [3-4]
New Trier HS	Trevian 1	Ted Lutton '20	Sammy Stoeber '20
New Trier HS	Trevian 2	Maureen Kelly '19	Alex Adams '20
New Trier HS	Trevian 3	Davis Alvarado '20	Nick Leamon '20
New Trier HS	Trevian 4	Henry Merrilees '20	Sarah Trunsky '21
New Trier HS	Trevian 5	Alex Rietz '20	Paris Levin '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	Cecily Marden '21	Kate Gallagher '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Rickover Regatta

Division A

From the notes