| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 9–1 |
| 3 |  |
The Bishop's School | Knights | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Palos Verdes High School | Sea Kings | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Redondo Union High School | Sea Hawks | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,160 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 20 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.326 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.50: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School Pointers | 1 | 9.51 school +0.55 | Jack Egan / Jonah Hatt 3.35 Diego Escobar / Katie Olsen 2.94 Aidan Hoogland / Ximena Escobar | 94% | 7–1 (88%) | −0.5 |
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School Sailors | 2 | 7.54 school +0.40 | Scott Mais / Madison Bashaw 2.64 Max Brennan / Nolan Schupak Wills Cook / Ryan Potter 2.72 | 70% | 7–1 (88%) | +1.4 |
| 3 | The Bishop's School Knights | 3 | 5.34 school −0.11 | John Majernik / Nathalie Lesser 2.02 Piper Holthus / Joshua Pelletier Rocco Cappetta / Lila Chitayat 1.39 | 35% | 3–5 (38%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings | 4 | 5.15 school −0.17 | Justin Colburn / Riley Foster Nathan Sih / Brooke Bertrand Marbella Marlo / Marlo Bozza 2–2 Marbella Marlo / Tyler Wood 0–4 | 32% | 2–6 (25%) | −0.6 |
| 6 | Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks | 5 | 4.33 | Micky Munns / Michael Fineman Taft Buckley / Lucas Kennedy Adra Ivancich / Dylan Dean | 19% | 1–7 (12%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School | 7.54 | 9.89 | 7–1 | 5.6 | +2.35 | 1.7 | 16% |
| 3 | The Bishop's School | 5.34 | 5.54 | 3–5 | 2.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 4 | Corona del Mar High School | 5.15 | 4.53 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 6 | Redondo Union High School | 4.33 | 3.62 | 1–7 | 1.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 1 | Point Loma High School | 9.51 | 8.51 | 7–1 | 7.5 | −1.01 | 0.3 | 92% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Brennan | Newport Harbor High School | 1.65 | 3.99 | 7–1 | 5.6 | +2.35 | 1.7 | 16% |
| Wills Cook | Newport Harbor High School | 2.72 | 5.07 | 7–1 | 5.6 | +2.35 | 1.7 | 16% |
| Justin Colburn | Corona del Mar High School | 1.09 | 0.47 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.62 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Adra Ivancich | Redondo Union High School | 0.73 | 0.02 | 1–7 | 1.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Aidan Hoogland | Point Loma High School | 2.41 | 1.40 | 7–1 | 7.5 | −1.01 | 0.3 | 92% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 20 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Sea Kings | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Sailors | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Knights | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Sea Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Knights | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Sailors | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Knights | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Point Loma High School | Pointers | Aidan Hoogland '20 Diego Escobar '20 Jack Egan '20 |
Ximena Escobar '21 Katie Olsen '21 Jonah Hatt '19 |
|
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | Max Brennan '19 Scott Mais '19 Wills Cook '19 |
Nolan Schupak '21 Madison Bashaw '20 Ryan Potter '20 |
|
The Bishop's School | Knights | John Majernik '20 Piper Holthus '21 Rocco Cappetta '20 |
Nathalie Lesser '21 Joshua Pelletier '20 Lila Chitayat '21 |
|
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | Justin Colburn '20 Marbella Marlo '20 Nathan Sih '21 |
Riley Foster '20 Tyler Wood '22 Marlo Bozza '21 Brooke Bertrand '21 |
|
Redondo Union High School | Sea Hawks | Adra Ivancich '22 Micky Munns '19 Taft Buckley '21 |
Dylan Dean '22 Michael Fineman '21 Lucas Kennedy '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
