| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 2–0 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 1–1 |
| 3 |  |
Orono High School | Spartans | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,405 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.581 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers | 1 | 5.96 school −0.44 | Matthew Kickhafer / Annika Irene 2.07 Graham Ness / Rowan O'Connell 2.06 Nate Olmsted / Lucia Loosbrock 2.27 | 63% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils | 3 | 5.13 school −0.08 | Christiana Scheibner / Emma Turner 1.75 Dominic Dulac / Ryan Hexter 2.01 Anna Carron / Drew Clutterbuck 1.45 | 39% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.2 |
| 3 | Orono High School Spartans | 2 | 5.43 school −0.14 | Kytalin Hendrickson / Archie Bolgar 1.64 Rachel Bartel / Tyra Pranger 1.95 Seamus Hendrickson / Louise Rosenbaum 1.99 0–1 Seamus Hendrickson / Mei Vickery 1.97 0–1 | 48% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 5.96 | 8.96 | 2–0 | 1.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 40% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.13 | 5.69 | 1–1 | 0.8 | +0.57 | 0.1 | 63% |
| 3 | Orono High School | 5.43 | 2.43 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Minnetonka High School | Grosse Pointe South High School | 66% | |
| 1 | 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School | Orono High School | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 60% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Graham Ness '19 Matthew Kickhafer '19 Nate Olmsted '19 |
Rowan O'Connell '20 Annika Irene '19 Lucia Loosbrock '21 |
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | Anna Carron '21 Christiana Scheibner '19 Dominic Dulac '20 |
Drew Clutterbuck '19 Emma Turner '19 Ryan Hexter '21 |
|
Orono High School | Spartans | Kytalin Hendrickson '22 Rachel Bartel '20 Seamus Hendrickson '21 |
Archie Bolgar '19 Tyra Pranger '21 Louise Rosenbaum '20 Mei Vickery '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
