| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Black River Public School | Mixed | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
New Trier HS | Blue | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
Traverse City West | TCW Mixed | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Traverse City Central | TCC Mixed | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
Holland Christian High School | Mixed | 1–5 |
| 7 | |
New Trier HS | Green | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,339 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 21 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.412 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.48: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Black River Public School Mixed | 4.84 | 7.84 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 28% |
| 2 | New Trier HS Blue | 2.63 | 5.46 | 5–1 | 3.0 | +2.83 | 3.0 | 6% |
| 5 | Traverse City Central TCC Mixed | 0.53 | 1.90 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.37 | 0.8 | 27% |
| 4 | Traverse City West TCW Mixed | 2.96 | 2.64 | 3–3 | 3.3 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 3 | Spring Lake High School Red | 5.00 | 3.40 | 4–2 | 5.1 | −1.60 | 1.0 | 97% |
| 6 | Holland Christian High School Mixed | 2.04 | 0.03 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −2.00 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 7 | New Trier HS Green | 0.82 | -2.18 | 0–6 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Heideman | Black River Public School | 1.68 | 4.68 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 28% |
| Henry Merrilees | New Trier HS | 0.89 | 3.72 | 5–1 | 3.0 | +2.83 | 3.0 | 6% |
| George Barton | New Trier HS | 0.49 | 3.32 | 5–1 | 3.0 | +2.83 | 3.0 | 6% |
| Kai Oslund Dolan | Traverse City Central | 0.33 | 1.70 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.37 | 0.8 | 27% |
| Liam Clone | Traverse City West | 0.91 | 0.59 | 3–3 | 3.3 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Nick Gustafson | Traverse City West | 0.69 | 0.38 | 3–3 | 3.3 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Bryson Hough | Spring Lake High School | 1.34 | -0.26 | 4–2 | 5.1 | −1.60 | 1.0 | 97% |
| Zoe Czadzeck | Spring Lake High School | 1.82 | 0.22 | 4–2 | 5.1 | −1.60 | 1.0 | 97% |
| Amelia Traver | Holland Christian High School | 0.47 | -1.53 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −2.00 | 1.5 | 98% |
| Ryan Peterson | Holland Christian High School | 0.55 | -1.46 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −2.00 | 1.5 | 98% |
| Casey Bertocchi | New Trier HS | 0.40 | -2.60 | 0–6 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Kevin Hu | New Trier HS | 0.41 | -2.58 | 0–6 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Blue | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
TCC Mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Blue | 1-3-5 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
TCW Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
TCW Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Green | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
TCW Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
TCC Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Green | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Blue | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Mixed | 2-3-5 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Black River Public School | Mixed | Christopher Heideman '20 Eden Nykamp '21 Jack Hemmelgarn '19 |
Lily Johnson '23 Ben Olney '22 Skyler Eldersveld Eldersveld '23 |
|
New Trier HS | Blue | George Barton '22 Henry Merrilees '20 Ted Lutton '20 |
Calvin Lutton '22 Quin Doughty '21 Sammy Stoeber '20 |
|
Spring Lake High School | Red | Bryson Hough '21 Noah Wolters '19 Zoe Czadzeck '20 |
Caroline Henry '23 Griffin Phares '21 Abby Airo '20 |
|
Traverse City West | TCW Mixed | Liam Clone '20 Nick Gustafson '19 Noah Robitshek '21 |
Celeste Anderson '17 Nic Zenner '21 Griffin Wright '21 |
|
Traverse City Central | TCC Mixed | Charles Kellogg '19 Kai Oslund Dolan '20 Luke Adams '24 |
Cj Enoksen '25 Abigail Paul '21 Bryce Wilmoth '20 |
|
Holland Christian High School | Mixed | Amelia Traver '24 Greta Traver '23 Ryan Peterson '20 |
Phoebe Andes '22 Lauren Siegers '21 Ben Dornbush '22 Matt Marshall '21 |
|
New Trier HS | Green | Ben Lewis '20 Casey Bertocchi '22 Kevin Hu '22 |
Ally Kleinmann '22 Will Broseman '22 Amit Patel '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
