VISA 2019 Spring Fleet Racing Championship

HostYouth Sailing Virginia
Date05/18/2019
TypeLeague Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Poquoson High School	Islanders	18	34	52
2	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	21	32	53
3	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	26	28	54
4	Grafton High School	Varsity	43	30	73
5	York High School	Varsity	37	46	83
6	Mathews High School	Blue Devils	38	51	89
7	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	45	45	90
8	Maury High School	Commodores 1	77	21	98
9	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	45	68	113
10	Phoebus High School	Phantoms	59	60	119
11	Granby High School	Comets	70	60	130
12	Maury High School	Commodores 2	69	74	143

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Poquoson High School	Islanders	5	1	3	4	2	1	2	18	Jack Mckenna '20 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	3	2	1	3	1	6	5	21	Henry Allgeier '23 Ali Zaidi '20
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	2	5	2	7	4	3	3	26	Cole Handly '19 [1-7] Laura Rhodes '20 [1, 5-7] Peyton Crum '23 [2, 4] Jayden Jackson '24 [3]
York High School	Varsity	7	8	4	1	5	4	8	37	Brian Fox '19 Charlie Gibson '20
Mathews High School	Blue Devils	4	3	7	6	8	9	1	38	Andrew Ciszewski '21 David Mattox '21
Grafton High School	Varsity	6	7	8	5	6	2	9	43	Madeline Amthor '22 [1-7] Lenore Dougherty '20 [1-6] Ethan White '21 [7]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	1	4	5	2	DSQ	DSQ	7	45	Harrison Thomson '22 [1-7] Sam Beck '21 [1-4, 7] Robert Chase '22 [5-6]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	8	6	6	8	3	8	6	45	Tyler Brown '23 [1-7] Maggie Leddy '20 [1, 3-7] Victor Pirnik '22 [2]
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	9	11	9	10	11	5	4	59	Ricky Cordner '19 Ramazani Clement '23
Maury High School	Commodores 2	12	12	10	9	7	7	12	69	Emily Britt '23 Margaret Wyatt '25
Granby High School	Comets	10	9	11	11	9	10	10	70	Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 Henry Allard '24
Maury High School	Commodores 1	11	10	12	12	10	11	11	77	Connor Mccarty '21 Jack Carson '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Maury High School	Commodores 1	1	4	1	3	7	3	2	21	Sean Trudell '24 Gabby Cloe '24
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	5	7	3	6	1	1	5	28	Megan Geith '20 Charlotte Pirnik '20
Grafton High School	Varsity	2	1	8	1	11	4	3	30	David Hanna '21 Luke Manternach '22
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	10	5	2	7	2	2	4	32	Paul Trudell '22 Aubrey Walton '23
Poquoson High School	Islanders	4	2	5	8	5	9	1	34	Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-4, 7] Chase Brewer '22 [5-6] Mollypaige Deans '19 [1-4, 7] Olivia Gilmore '23 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	3	3	4	4	DSQ	5	DSQ	45	Robert Chase '22 [1-7] Jon Krueger '20 [1-4, 7] Harrison Thomson '22 [5-6]
York High School	Varsity	9	11	7	2	3	8	6	46	Justin Kelly '25 Jude Link '22
Mathews High School	Blue Devils	6	8	6	9	6	6	10	51	Henry Ciszewski '24 Quinton Dixon '20
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	11	9	12	10	4	7	7	60	David Michael Jennings '14 Alexandra Smith '23
Granby High School	Comets	12	6	10	5	8	10	9	60	William Green '23 Michael Polsinelli '23
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	7	10	11	11	10	11	8	68	Morgan Handly '21 [1] Tori Dixon '20 [2-7] Morgan Riggins '20 [1, 3-7] Mallory Soter '20 [2]
Maury High School	Commodores 2	8	12	9	12	9	DNF	11	74	Ben Powell '22 Margaret Wyatt '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Grafton High School Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Granby High School Comets	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Mathews High School Blue Devils	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Maury High School Commodores 1	13	13	15	15	17	17	8
Maury High School Commodores 2	14	14	16	16	18	18	9
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	15	15	17	17	8	8	10
Phoebus High School Phantoms	16	16	18	18	9	9	11
Poquoson High School Islanders	17	17	8	8	10	10	12
York High School Varsity	18	18	9	9	11	11	13

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Grafton High School Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Granby High School Comets	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Mathews High School Blue Devils	13	13	15	15	17	17	8
Maury High School Commodores 1	14	14	16	16	18	18	9
Maury High School Commodores 2	15	15	17	17	8	8	10
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	16	16	18	18	9	9	11
Phoebus High School Phantoms	17	17	8	8	10	10	12
Poquoson High School Islanders	18	18	9	9	11	11	13
York High School Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12	14

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Grafton High School	Madeline Amthor '22 [1-7]	Lenore Dougherty '20 [1-6] Ethan White '21 [7]
Varsity	David Hanna '21	Luke Manternach '22
Granby High School	Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22	Henry Allard '24
Comets	William Green '23	Michael Polsinelli '23
Kecoughtan High School	Cole Handly '19 [1-7]	Laura Rhodes '20 [1, 5-7] Peyton Crum '23 [2, 4] Jayden Jackson '24 [3]
Warriors 1	Megan Geith '20	Charlotte Pirnik '20
Kecoughtan High School	Tyler Brown '23 [1-7]	Maggie Leddy '20 [1, 3-7] Victor Pirnik '22 [2]
Warriors 2	Morgan Handly '21 [1] Tori Dixon '20 [2-7]	Morgan Riggins '20 [1, 3-7] Mallory Soter '20 [2]
Mathews High School	Andrew Ciszewski '21	David Mattox '21
Blue Devils	Henry Ciszewski '24	Quinton Dixon '20
Maury High School	Connor Mccarty '21	Jack Carson '22
Commodores 1	Sean Trudell '24	Gabby Cloe '24
Maury High School	Emily Britt '23	Margaret Wyatt '25
Commodores 2	Ben Powell '22	Margaret Wyatt '25
Norfolk Academy	Henry Allgeier '23	Ali Zaidi '20
Bulldogs	Paul Trudell '22	Aubrey Walton '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Harrison Thomson '22 [1-7]	Sam Beck '21 [1-4, 7] Robert Chase '22 [5-6]
Oaks	Robert Chase '22 [1-7]	Jon Krueger '20 [1-4, 7] Harrison Thomson '22 [5-6]
Phoebus High School	Ricky Cordner '19	Ramazani Clement '23
Phantoms	David Michael Jennings '14	Alexandra Smith '23
Poquoson High School	Jack Mckenna '20	Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Islanders	Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-4, 7] Chase Brewer '22 [5-6]	Mollypaige Deans '19 [1-4, 7] Olivia Gilmore '23 [5-6]
York High School	Brian Fox '19	Charlie Gibson '20
Varsity	Justin Kelly '25	Jude Link '22

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA 2019 Spring Fleet Racing Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes