FYC Spring Fleet Race Open

HostBishop Kenny FL/Episcopal of Jackso
Date03/27/2021
TypePromotional
BoatC420
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	63
2	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	74
3	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ Girls	77
4	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ Maroon	93
5	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	101
6	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	BK JV	138

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ Maroon A	5	1	1	3	8	2	5	25	No Show Rohan Jones '24
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny B	2	7	4	6	3	1	4	27	Jonah Brewer '21 Davis Mclauchlin '24
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ B	1	10	6	5	2	6	1	31	Cohen Chesser '23 Scott Busey '23
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ A	6	3	2	8	5	5	3	32	Julian Galpin '23 No Show
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A A	9	2	5	4	4	4	7	35	Lawton Harper '24 No Show
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ Girls A	8	5	7	1	7	3	6	37	Mcrae Busey '25 No Show
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ Girls B	4	8	8	10	1	7	2	40	Maya Jones '26 No Show
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny A	3	4	3	2	11	12	12	47	Luke Gould '21 Charlie Lawrence '22
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A B	10	6	9	11	12	8	10	66	Ty Osmond '24 No Show
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	BK JV B	11	9	11	9	10	9	8	67	No Show Gabriella Beccara '24
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ Maroon B	12	12	12	7	6	10	9	68	No Show No Show
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	BK JV A	7	11	10	12	9	11	11	71	Cooper Lewis '22 Solona Meissner '24

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Bishop Kenny High School - FL BK JV	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ Girls	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ Maroon	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Bishop Kenny High School - FL BK JV	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ Girls	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ Maroon	11	11	11	11	11	11	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Lawton Harper '24	No Show
Raptors A	Ty Osmond '24	No Show
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Cooper Lewis '22	Solona Meissner '24
BK JV	No Show	Gabriella Beccara '24
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Luke Gould '21	Charlie Lawrence '22
Bishop Kenny	Jonah Brewer '21	Davis Mclauchlin '24
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Julian Galpin '23	No Show
ESJ	Cohen Chesser '23	Scott Busey '23
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Mcrae Busey '25	No Show
ESJ Girls	Maya Jones '26	No Show
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	No Show	Rohan Jones '24
ESJ Maroon	No Show	No Show

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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FYC Spring Fleet Race Open

Division A

Division B

From the notes