| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Orono High School | Spartans | 3–7 |
| 3 |  |
Mahtomedi | Zephyrs | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,005 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 15 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.471 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +1.31 ± 0.79: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers | 1 | 4.59 school −0.33, home +-0.01 | Lucia Loosbrock / Max Sigel 1.77 Greg Bittle / Ana Stewart 1.53 Jacob Zils / Jordi Malaret | 69% | 10–0 (100%) | +3.1 |
| 2 | Orono High School Spartans | 2 | 3.84 school −0.14 | Seamus Hendrickson / Jack (Henry) Strommen 1.88 Kytalin Hendrickson / Morgan Reeves 1.38 Sam Rosenbaum / Tyra Pranger | 48% | 3–7 (30%) | −1.8 |
| 3 | Mahtomedi Zephyrs | 3 | 3.23 school +0.19 | Cole Barre / Nick Lorentz 1.57 Owen Harrod / Finnian Falvey Anika Liner / Luke Larson | 32% | 2–8 (20%) | −1.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 4.59 | 7.59 | 10–0 | 6.9 | ≥+3.00 | 4.7 | 2% |
| 3 | Mahtomedi | 3.23 | 2.39 | 2–8 | 3.2 | −0.85 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2 | Orono High School | 3.84 | 2.77 | 3–7 | 4.8 | −1.07 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anika Liner | Mahtomedi | 0.28 | -0.56 | 2–8 | 3.2 | −0.85 | 0.6 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Minnetonka High School | Mahtomedi | 74% | |
| 1 | 2 | Orono High School | Mahtomedi | 60% | |
| 1 | 3 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 64% | |
| 2 | 4 | Minnetonka High School | Mahtomedi | 74% | |
| 2 | 5 | Mahtomedi | Orono High School | 39% | upset |
| 2 | 6 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 64% | |
| 3 | 7 | Minnetonka High School | Mahtomedi | 74% | |
| 3 | 8 | Mahtomedi | Orono High School | 39% | upset |
| 3 | 9 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 64% | |
| 4 | 10 | Minnetonka High School | Mahtomedi | 74% | |
| 4 | 11 | Orono High School | Mahtomedi | 61% | |
| 4 | 12 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 64% | |
| 5 | 13 | Minnetonka High School | Mahtomedi | 75% | |
| 5 | 14 | Orono High School | Mahtomedi | 61% | |
| 5 | 15 | Minnetonka High School | Orono High School | 64% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Zephyrs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Zephyrs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Skippers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Greg Bittle '21 Jacob Zils '23 Lucia Loosbrock '21 |
Ana Stewart '23 Jordi Malaret '23 Max Sigel '22 |
|
Orono High School | Spartans | Kytalin Hendrickson '22 Sam Rosenbaum '22 Seamus Hendrickson '21 |
Morgan Reeves '22 Tyra Pranger '21 Jack (Henry) Strommen '21 |
|
Mahtomedi | Zephyrs | Anika Liner '21 Cole Barre '21 Owen Harrod '22 |
Luke Larson '21 Nick Lorentz '21 Finnian Falvey '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
