NJISA 2021 New Jersey State Championship

HostTRYC & BBYRA
Date05/22/2021
TypeState Championship
BoatC420/CFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Toms River North	Mariners	35	16	51
2	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	21	33	54
3	Ranney School	Panthers	37	39	76
4	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	44	53	97
5	Delbarton School	Green Wave	43	77	120
6	Biotechnology High School	Nerds	76	58	134
7	Chatham High School	Cougars	51	89	140
8	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	77	73	150
9	Toms River South	Indians	102	50	152
10	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	95	83	178
11	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	89	98	187
12	Central Regional High School	Eagles	113	111	224
13	Perth Amboy High School	Panthers	128	132	260

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	7	3	21	Ryan Ehnot '22 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Toms River North	Mariners	4	2	3	6	7	7	3	1	1	1	35	Declan Botwinick '21 Lindsay Walsh '23
Ranney School	Panthers	3	3	5	4	4	4	5	4	3	2	37	Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Delbarton School	Green Wave	2	6	4	3	2	3	6	8	5	4	43	James O'Gwen '23 Johnny Lang '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	4	6	5	8	2	1	6	2	5	44	James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Chatham High School	Cougars	6	9	2	1	5	6	4	3	6	9	51	Thomas Marino '21 Paige Lubrano '22
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	7	8	7	7	3	9	10	11	8	6	76	Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	9	5	11	10	6	8	7	10	4	7	77	Sophie Harrington '22 Owen Geohegan '22
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	8	12	9	8	10	10	8	5	11	8	89	Lauren Murray '24 [1-10] Lilly Shanker '22 [1-5] Michael Ahern '21 [6-10]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	7	8	11	9	11	9	9	10	11	95	No Show No Show
Toms River South	Indians	11	10	13	9	12	5	11	12	9	10	102	Ella Demand '24 [1-10] Sophia Delucca '24 [1-6] Kelly Robinson '24 [7-10]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	12	11	12	12	11	12	12	7	12	12	113	Leila Cavanaugh '23 [1-6] Annabel Bornebusch '22 [7-10] Lauren Desanto '25 [1-6]
Perth Amboy High School	Panthers	13	13	10	13	13	13	13	13	DNS	13	128	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	2	1	4	16	Everett Botwinick '22 Iliana Vasslides '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	6	3	5	2	5	2	1	1	7	1	33	Colin Guerrera '22 [1-10] Nicholas Cunha '23 [1-6] Connor Feury '22 [7-10]
Ranney School	Panthers	3	2	2	3	10	4	6	4	2	3	39	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-10] Grace Bray '23 [1-8] Jack Whitman '23 [9-10]
Toms River South	Indians	4	4	3	6	4	7	2	6	8	6	50	Sonja Krajewski '22 [1-10] Kelly Robinson '24 [1-4] Cali Krean '24 [5-10]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	5	6	7	2	6	10	3	4	5	53	Joe Paccione '21 [1-10] Nora Ciak '23 [1-6] Kevin Brooksbank '23 [7-10]
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	2	6	7	9	8	8	8	5	3	2	58	Gabby Fontana '23 [1-10] Aiden Welch '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	9	7	10	5	6	5	7	12	5	7	73	Logan Twining '22 [1-10] Hannah Nitka '25 [1-6] Vaughn Lynch '23 [7-10]
Delbarton School	Green Wave	7	12	8	8	7	3	4	9	11	8	77	Ryan Smith '21 Julien Dietrich '24
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	8	4	4	9	12	9	8	10	9	83	No Show No Show
Chatham High School	Cougars	8	9	12	11	12	9	5	7	6	10	89	Jamie Lynch '23 [1-4, 7-8] Ciara Doherty '21 [5-6, 9-10] Jonathan Field '22 [1-4, 7-8] Cole West '23 [5-6] Milos Buchberger '21 [9-10]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	11	10	9	12	3	11	12	10	9	11	98	Katie Penque '22 [1-10] Michael Ahern '21 [1-4] Sarah Kane '22 [5-10]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	12	11	11	10	11	10	11	11	12	12	111	Owen Desanto '23 Vaughn Armstrong '22
Perth Amboy High School	Panthers	13	13	DNF	13	13	13	DNF	13	13	13	132	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2020 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Biotechnology High School Nerds	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Central Regional High School Eagles	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Chatham High School Cougars	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Delbarton School Green Wave	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Perth Amboy High School Panthers	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Ranney School Panthers	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Summit High School Hilltoppers	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Toms River North Mariners	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Toms River South Indians	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Trinity Hall Monarchs	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Biotechnology High School Nerds	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Central Regional High School Eagles	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Chatham High School Cougars	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Delbarton School Green Wave	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Perth Amboy High School Panthers	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Ranney School Panthers	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Summit High School Hilltoppers	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Toms River North Mariners	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Toms River South Indians	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Trinity Hall Monarchs	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Biotechnology High School	Benson Chiles '22	Ronan Downie '22
Nerds	Gabby Fontana '23 [1-10]	Aiden Welch '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Central Regional High School	Leila Cavanaugh '23 [1-6] Annabel Bornebusch '22 [7-10]	Lauren Desanto '25 [1-6]
Eagles	Owen Desanto '23	Vaughn Armstrong '22
Chatham High School	Thomas Marino '21	Paige Lubrano '22
Cougars	Jamie Lynch '23 [1-4, 7-8] Ciara Doherty '21 [5-6, 9-10]	Jonathan Field '22 [1-4, 7-8] Cole West '23 [5-6] Milos Buchberger '21 [9-10]
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Mitchell Hnatt '24
Colts	Colin Guerrera '22 [1-10]	Nicholas Cunha '23 [1-6] Connor Feury '22 [7-10]
Delbarton School	James O'Gwen '23	Johnny Lang '23
Green Wave	Ryan Smith '21	Julien Dietrich '24
Donovan Catholic High School	James Kopack '24	Caroline Felser '24
Griffins	Joe Paccione '21 [1-10]	Nora Ciak '23 [1-6] Kevin Brooksbank '23 [7-10]
Perth Amboy High School	No Show	No Show
Panthers	No Show	No Show
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-10]	Grace Bray '23 [1-8] Jack Whitman '23 [9-10]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Sophie Harrington '22	Owen Geohegan '22
Bulldogs	Logan Twining '22 [1-10]	Hannah Nitka '25 [1-6] Vaughn Lynch '23 [7-10]
Summit High School	Lauren Murray '24 [1-10]	Lilly Shanker '22 [1-5] Michael Ahern '21 [6-10]
Hilltoppers	Katie Penque '22 [1-10]	Michael Ahern '21 [1-4] Sarah Kane '22 [5-10]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Lindsay Walsh '23
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Iliana Vasslides '23
Toms River South	Ella Demand '24 [1-10]	Sophia Delucca '24 [1-6] Kelly Robinson '24 [7-10]
Indians	Sonja Krajewski '22 [1-10]	Kelly Robinson '24 [1-4] Cali Krean '24 [5-10]
Trinity Hall	No Show	No Show
Monarchs	No Show	No Show

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2021 New Jersey State Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes