| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mater Dei High School | Monarchs | 15–1 |
| 2 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | 11–5 |
| 3 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 10–6 |
| 4 |  |
Santa Barbara High School | Dons | 8–8 |
| 5 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 6–7 |
| 6 |  |
Dos Pueblos | Chargers | 4–9 |
| 7 |  |
Coronado Islanders | Nado | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
Palos Verdes High School | Sea Kings | 1–7 |
| 9 |  |
Redwood High School | Giants | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,239 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 57 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.447 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.55 ± 0.33: an orderly event, more orderly than 82% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mater Dei High School | 7.53 | 9.30 | 15–1 | 12.8 | +1.77 | 1.9 | 13% |
| 2 | Corona del Mar High School | 5.79 | 7.15 | 11–5 | 7.5 | +1.36 | 2.6 | 5% |
| 3 | Point Loma High School | 6.43 | 6.61 | 10–6 | 9.5 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 51% |
| 6 | Dos Pueblos | 4.98 | 4.67 | 4–9 | 4.6 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 5 | Newport Harbor High School | 5.85 | 5.52 | 6–7 | 6.7 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 7 | Coronado Islanders | 4.31 | 3.93 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 4 | Santa Barbara High School | 6.39 | 5.87 | 8–8 | 9.4 | −0.52 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 8 | Palos Verdes High School | 3.50 | 2.93 | 1–7 | 1.4 | −0.56 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 9 | Redwood High School | 4.47 | 1.47 | 0–8 | 2.7 | ≤−3.00 | 4.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice Schmid | Point Loma High School | 1.82 | 2.00 | 10–6 | 9.5 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 51% |
| Jack Forgea | Dos Pueblos | 1.02 | 0.71 | 4–9 | 4.6 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Elsa Wiley | Newport Harbor High School | 1.59 | 1.26 | 6–7 | 6.7 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Tommy Rudowicz | Coronado Islanders | 1.87 | 1.49 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Max Olson | Coronado Islanders | 1.41 | 1.02 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Jonathon Seawards | Santa Barbara High School | 1.64 | 1.13 | 8–8 | 9.4 | −0.52 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Tommy Kraak | Palos Verdes High School | 1.30 | 0.74 | 1–7 | 1.4 | −0.56 | 0.1 | 80% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Giants | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Dons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Nado | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Giants | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Nado | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Dons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Giants | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Sea Kings | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Nado | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Dons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Giants | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Nado | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Sailors | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Giants | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Pointers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Nado | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Dons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Nado | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Giants | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Giants | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Dons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Nado | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Giants | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Dons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Chargers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Nado | 1-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-4-5 |
| 53 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Dons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pointers | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Pointers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dons | 2-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dons | 2-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dons | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Chargers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 1-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Dons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
