| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Duxbury High School | Dragons | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Hingham High School | Habormen | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Winchester High School | Sachems | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
St. Johns Prep | Varsity | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Lincoln Sudbury RHS | Warriors | 1–7 |
| 6 |  |
Manchester/Essex RHS | Hornets | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,739 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 6 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.636 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duxbury High School Dragons | 1 | 4.00 school −0.07, home +0.12 | Gavin Monaghan` / Farrell Saluja Madeline Koelbel / Harrison Vose Myles Olney / Greta Klein | 57% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | Hingham High School Habormen | 3 | 3.58 school +0.39 | Ethan Burt / Gabe Synnott Sara Menesale / Ellie Smith 1.17 Julia Scipione / Caroline O'Hara 0.95 | 45% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.2 |
| 3 | Winchester High School Sachems | 2 | 3.64 | Carter Knight / Audra Murray Grant Garrett / Dorothy Mccarthy Michael Lanz / Nate Morrissey | 48% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duxbury High School | 4.00 | 5.04 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.04 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 2 | Hingham High School | 3.58 | 3.82 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 3 | Winchester High School | 3.64 | 2.35 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.29 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Monaghan` | Duxbury High School | 1.33 | 2.37 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.04 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Carter Knight | Winchester High School | 1.44 | 0.15 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.29 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Grant Garrett | Winchester High School | 1.06 | -0.23 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.29 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Michael Lanz | Winchester High School | 0.96 | -0.33 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.29 | 0.6 | 92% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hingham High School | Winchester High School | 51% | ||
| 5 | Winchester High School | Duxbury High School | 46% | upset | |
| 7 | Duxbury High School | Hingham High School | 58% | ||
| 16 | Duxbury High School | Hingham High School | 59% | ||
| 18 | Duxbury High School | Winchester High School | 58% | ||
| 19 | Hingham High School | Winchester High School | 47% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Habormen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Dragons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Habormen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Sachems | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Dragons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Habormen | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Sachems | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Habormen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Habormen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Sachems | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Habormen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Sachems | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Habormen | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Warriors | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sachems | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Habormen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sachems | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Duxbury High School | Dragons | Gavin Monaghan` '22 Madeline Koelbel '22 Myles Olney '24 |
Farrell Saluja '22 Harrison Vose '22 Greta Klein '22 |
|
Hingham High School | Habormen | Ethan Burt '22 Julia Scipione '25 Sara Menesale '24 |
Gabe Synnott '24 Caroline O'Hara '25 Ellie Smith '24 |
|
Winchester High School | Sachems | Carter Knight '23 Grant Garrett '24 Michael Lanz '25 William Macneille '25 |
Audra Murray '24 Dorothy Mccarthy '23 Nate Morrissey '23 Sean Morrison '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
